星巴克股份有限公司: 买入——开仓 January 29, 2018 1837

描述

星巴克股份有限公司(纳斯达克股票代码:SBUX)是一家咖啡烘焙商、营销商和零售商。截至2016年10月,公司业务已覆盖75个国家。公司通过四大部门运营:美洲部门(包括美国、加拿大及拉丁美洲)、中国及亚太部门(CAP)、欧洲、中东及非洲部门(EMEA)和渠道拓展部门。美洲部门、CAP部门及EMEA部门运营公司直营店及授权经营店。渠道拓展部门业务包括烤咖啡豆、研磨咖啡、泰舒茶、星巴克与泰舒联名的单杯产品、一系列即饮饮料(如星冰乐、星巴克双倍浓缩和星巴克冰摇沁爽系列饮品)以及通过杂货店、大型零售商店、专业零售商、便利店和美国餐饮业务等渠道在世界各地销售的其他品牌产品。

资料来源:汤森路透

投资策略

SBUX在1月25日星期四公布了第一季度盈利,非公认会计准则每股盈利0.65美元,同比增长25%,超出市场普遍预期的0.57美元。但营收为60.7亿美元,比市场普遍预期低1.1亿美元。因此,SBUX股价下跌4.2%,跌至57.99美元。虽然SBUX在美国假日期间的销售额令人失望,但其中国部门的同店销售额同比增长了6%。我们认为下跌导致SBUX被低估,这是买入这一咖啡巨头股份的机会。

近期股价走势:自2015年底以来,SBUX在54.00美元至64.00美元的区间内波动。国内经济增长放缓,导致该股表现不及主要股指。随着税制改革,SBUX自2016年底起一路攀升;但最近的收益报表令该股跌逾4%。

中国市场的强劲势头:自从在中国开设店面以来,SBUX的发展势头非常强劲。在最新的收益报表中,该公司报告称,中国同店销售额增长6%,营收增长30%。公司还报告称,在中国7个城市新开设了门店,中国的门店超过3100家。

中国对SBUX的热情似乎依然强劲。星巴克于2017年12月6日在上海开设了一家新的星巴克臻选烘焙工坊,自开业以来一直表现不俗。SBUX表示,上海烘焙工坊开业八周后,销售额已达到美国星巴克每周平均店铺销售额的两倍。

虽然中国市场在总营收方面位居第二,仍然遥遥落后于第一名;中国/亚太地区2017财年净营收总额为32.4亿美元,而美洲为156.5亿美元,我们认为SBUX中国市场仍具有巨大增长潜力。

奖励计划:SBUX还通过星巴克奖励计划重点发展数字化营销。我们认为,奖励计划有助于鼓励会员重复消费,并有助于通过个性化产品进行直接营销。因此,我们发现令人鼓舞的是,SBUX在美国新增了超过140万名会员,同比增长11%,其中会员支出占美国公司营业额的30%以上,移动支付占美国公司营业额的11%。

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