- Singapore equities endured a difficult month. The 5.3% pullback was the steepest monthly drop since the 17% rout in March 2020. Cyclicals and commodities bore the brunt of the de-risking, alongside retreating banks. Conversely, Jardine Group counters led gainers. The Next50 mid-cap index shed 7%, while REITs were resilient, easing just 1%.
- De-risking across AI exposures has weighed on global cyclicals. The spike in AI equity and debt issuance has pushed investors to reduce their concentration in this sector. Semiconductor stocks have corrected 15%, while credit default spreads and borrowing costs have risen sharply. Nevertheless, memory prices or GPU lease rates do not reveal any tapering in infrastructure demand. We believe the AI adoption cycle is in its infancy, with physical infrastructure still being built out. Hard to be an AI train wreck if it is so well telegraphed.
- We remain positive on cyclicals, specifically semiconductors and commodities. Their multiples have de-rated, but the earnings growth remains intact. The unwinding of the AI trade has capped interest rates. But the risk of another rate hike in December remains. Banks offer pricing power as interest rates firm up, with volume growth from loan expansion of 13%.
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