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2Q26 adj. earnings rose 19% YoY to US$17bn, beating our estimates, with 1H26 adj. earnings at 53% of our FY26e forecast, driven by record markets revenue and strong IB fees. DPS rose 7% YoY to US$1.50. Dividend payout ratio dipped to 19% (2Q25: 27%), with net common stock repurchases in 2Q26 at US$6.2bn (2Q25: US$7.1bn).
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NII rose 10% YoY on higher deposit and card balances despite NIM falling 3bps YoY to 2.40%. Non-interest revenue (+20% ex. significant items) was led by record markets revenue (+35%), IB fees (+30%) and asset management fees (+18%). FY26e NII guidance was raised to ~US$105.5bn (prev. US$103bn); expense guidance rose to ~US$107.5bn (prev. US$105bn).
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Maintain ACCUMULATE with a higher target price of US$380 (prev. US$335) as we raise FY26e earnings by 10% from higher NII, principal transactions, asset management and investment banking estimates, and lower provisions estimates. Our GGM valuation assumes 3.02x FY26e P/BV and an ROE estimate of 23.6%. We like JPM for its best-in-class profitability (23% ROTCE), record earnings across every segment and fortress balance sheet. We see growth extending through 2H26: raised NII guidance (~US$105.5bn), an IB pipeline at its strongest since 2021, continued AUM inflows and improving card credit. A growing dividend and ~US$40bn of excess capital provide further support, giving shareholders multiple ways to be rewarded while earnings compound.
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