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1Q26 PATMI rose 13% YoY to US$16.5bn, beating our estimates at 27% of our FY26e forecast, driven by record markets revenue and strong IB fees. Despite NIM declining by 8 bps, NII grew due to higher deposit balances and higher revolving balances in Card Services. DPS rose 7% YoY to US$1.50. The dividend payout ratio dipped to 25% (1Q25: 27%), with net common stock repurchases in 1Q26 at US$8.1bn (1Q25: US$7.1bn).
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NII rose 9% YoY from higher deposit and revolving card balances, while loans grew 11% YoY. Non-interest revenue (+11% YoY) was led by record markets revenue (+20%), IB fees (+28%), and asset management fees (+11%). JPM trimmed FY26e total NII guidance to US$103bn (prev. US$104.5bn) while maintaining expense guidance of US$105bn.
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Upgrade to ACCUMULATE from Neutral with a higher target price of US$335 (prev. US$320) as we raise FY26e earnings by 4% from higher principal transaction and investment banking estimates. Our GGM valuation assumes 2.66x FY26e P/BV and an ROE estimate of 21.5%. The 1Q26 earnings beat marks the start of a durable recovery in fee income. The M&A and ECM pipeline reopening should continue to drive investment banking through FY26e, while asset management tailwinds (AUM +16% YoY) and resilient consumer balances support AWM and CCB. Valuations (P/E 14x vs 10-year average of 12x) are justified by JPM’s best-in-class ROTCE of 23%, fortress balance sheet, and franchise quality.
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