- FY25 adjusted revenue and PATMI were within our expectations at 97%/96%, respectively, of our forecast. FY25 results exclude M1, which is classified as an asset for sale. Ordinary dividend was maintained at 34 cents. A 12.7-cent special dividend was announced (2-cent cash + 1 Keppel REIT for every 9 Keppel shares).
- FY25 underlying or (New Keppel) earnings 24% YoY to S$790mn. All three divisions enjoyed growth led by real estate asset management and operating performance at Keppel REIT. Infrastructure growth was driven by higher demand for decarbonisation & sustainability solutions (DSS), despite a weaker electricity spread.
- We lower our headline earnings due to the incorporation of non-core operations. Our SOTP-derived TP is raised to S$13.80 (prev. S$12.20) and the BUY recommendation is maintained. We raised our earnings and PE multiples for infrastructure and asset management to align closer with global peers. New Keppel earnings growth will be supported by asset management fees, lower interest rates, cost cuts, the Keppel Sakra Cogen power plant, and maintenance income from subsea cables and DSS. Special dividends will be pegged to 10-15% of assets monetised p.a. Assets earmarked for monetisation total S$13.5bn by 2030 (avg. S$2.7bn p.a.).
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