- Singapore interest rates rose for the 6th consecutive month, with October's 3M-SORA at 1.25%, only 14bps lower YoY. Loan growth held at 13% YoY in September, a post-COVID high. Deposits grew 7% YoY, slower than loans, and the CASA ratio eased to 20.1%. Funding costs are rising with rates, as banks pay more to keep fixed deposits.
- 3Q26 PPOP decline of 4% YoY were below our estimates at all three banks, on lower-than-expected trading income and NII. A rise in rates and weaker Asian stocks caused mark-to-market losses on DBS’s trading positions and GEH’s bonds. Deposit competition and USD funding costs kept NIM in check at UOB and OCBC. Fees rose at all three. For FY27e, DBS guides NII growth close to 5%, and UOB guides NII above FY26e.
- Maintain ACCUMULATE. We lowered our target prices after 3Q26 results to S$76.00 for DBS (prev. S$85.00), S$30.50 for OCBC (prev. S$33.20) and S$38.00 for UOB (prev. S$43.00), on lower NII and non-interest income estimates. Rising SORA should return NII to growth in FY27e, though deposit competition will absorb part of the gain. Dividends and capital returns support the rating, with banks' FY26e dividend yield at 4.3%. DBS remains our top pick. It has the highest ROE (FY26e: DBS 17.5%, OCBC 13.7%, UOB 10.7%), and its NIM fell the least (3Q26: DBS -9bps, UOB -14bps, OCBC -18bps).
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