-
2Q26 revenue met our expectations, with 1H26 revenue/PATMI at 45%/31% of our FY26e estimates. We expect revenue and PATMI to be backloaded into 2H26e driven by summer travel demand and higher operating leverage.
-
We continue expecting FY26e group revenue rising 13% YoY to US$13.8bn. Major event pipelines include the Tour de France in Jul and NASCAR across the US through Nov 2026, followed by LaLiga in Spain from August. These events will drive more local listings and higher booking activity across host cities. Continuous growth is driven by emerging markets (Latin America and APAC), while Airbnb Services expands its portfolio.
-
We downgrade our recommendation from NEUTRAL to REDUCE due to recent share price performance. We raise our DCF target price to US$158.00 (prev. US$136.00) following an increase in the terminal growth rate, g, to 4.0% (prev. 3.5%), reflecting easing booking disruptions in EMEA and improving booking and ADR growth. Recent rally has pushed ABNB to a premium valuation, trading at 30.9x PE versus its 2-year historical +1 SD of 29.6x. APAC and Latin America are growing at 2x the rate of mature markets but remain small enough to offset the slowdown, leaving group sales growth hinged on North America. New businesses beyond rentals offer longer-term upside but are unlikely to be material over the next 3-5 years.
Continue Reading
