• 2H25 earnings came in below our expectations, with revenue declining 13.4% YoY to US$77.6mn, mainly due to FX headwinds and flat growth in the live-streaming market. PATMI turnaround to US$3.7mn from a loss of US$5.2mn in 2H24, supported by ongoing cost-optimisation efforts. FY25 revenue met 91% of our forecast, while PATMI missed expectations with a net loss of US$0.9mn, compared with our US$5.48mn profit forecast.
• The company plans to monetise existing assets and diversify revenue streams through initiatives including V-Liver IP, sports collaborations, and short-form drama, which are expected to gradually drive user engagement and revenue growth.
• We maintain our BUY rating but have reduced the target price from S$1.45 to S$1.18. We reduced our FY26e revenue and PATMI forecasts by 25% and 37.5%, respectively, reflecting softer growth assumptions for the live-streaming market, slower monetisation trends, and a longer ramp-up period for new initiatives to contribute meaningfully to earnings. We continue to expect a consistent dividend policy and management’s ongoing share buyback programme. At the current level, 17LIVE trades at an FY26e P/E of 33x.

-  FY25 PATMI of S$630mn (+213% YoY) exceeded our expectations, coming in at 88% above our FY25e estimate. Growth was driven by strong Singapore residential sales and substantial capital recycling gains, with c.S$2bn in divestments in FY25, including the sale of its 50.1% stake in South Beach. 

-  The dividend policy has been revised to a minimum of 35% of reported PATMI (previously unspecified), which would include gains from divestments. A final dividend of 25 cents per share has been declared, bringing total FY25 dividends to 28 cents per share, representing a 40% payout.

-  Maintain BUY with a higher RNAV TP of S$11.32 (prev. S$9.62), implying a 25% discount to our RNAV of S$15.09. We raise our RNAV by 17% after accounting for recent investments/divestments and higher valuation of the living sector portfolio. Strong residential sales momentum in Singapore is expected to continue into FY26. We also expect more asset divestments, with immediate plans to exit its legacy UK portfolio (c.S$800mn carrying value, comprising development sites and residential projects). A strategic review is ongoing, with an update expected by mid-2026. Fund management initiatives could involve recycling non-core assets into private funds.

Updates Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders Surpassed 20 billion Yuan Mark for First Time CMOC Group has released its 2025 performance forecast. The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company in the range of 20.0 billion to 20.8 billion yuan (RMB, same below) for the full year, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.80% to 53.71%. After deducting non-recurring gains and losses, the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 20.4...
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