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Dominant launch franchise and a fast-growing satellite broadband business, but only 22% of FY25 revenue came from launch. Connectivity is the profit engine, with revenue up 50% to US$11.4bn and a 39% segment operating margin.
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Loss-making and negative cash flows until at least FY30e. FY25 operating loss of US$2.6bn and net loss of US$4.9bn, with free cash outflow of US$14bn. We forecast negative free cash flow every year to FY30e, cumulatively ~US$90bn.
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AI is the growth story but rests on compute contracts that expire by end-2029. AI revenue was only US$3.2bn in FY25 against a US$6.4bn segment operating loss. We forecast group revenue peaking at US$58bn in FY28e, then declining.
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Initiate coverage with a SELL recommendation and DCF-target price (WACC 10.0%, g 3.5%) of US$75.00.
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