- We think Biden is in a better position to win the presidency than Clinton in 2016. Biden has consistently maintained a lead in national polls of over three points more than Clinton back in 2016. He also has better poll ratings in five out of the six key battleground states.
- Florida has been a bellwether of U.S. elections. In the past 14 elections, the candidate who won in this state won the presidential seat 93% of the time. We expect Florida to be a strong predictor again in this election.
- Trump would need to secure at least 3-4 out of the six key battleground states to win the election. If he loses Florida, he has to win all five remaining battleground states to eke out a marginal win. Therefore, we expect Trump to lose the presidency if he loses Florida.