• 3Q26 adj. earnings rose 10% YoY to US$15.8bn, below our estimates, with 9M26 adj. earnings at 71% of our FY26e forecast, on lower-than-expected Fixed Income trading and IB fees. Client activity in Rates, Credit and Commodities weakened, and IB deals stalled after the late September bond sell-off. DPS rose 10% YoY to US$1.65, while buybacks declined to US$1.1bn (3Q25: US$8.3bn).
• Equity Markets revenue rose 49% YoY as prime financing balances grew, and asset management fees rose 15% YoY on higher market levels and net inflows. NII rose 13% YoY on deposit, card and Markets balance growth. FY26e NII guidance was raised to ~US$106.2bn (prev. ~US$105.5bn) and adjusted expense guidance to ~US$108.6bn (prev. ~US$107.5bn). Management’s 2027 central case for NII ex. Markets is ~US$107bn, with about a quarter of the growth from rate hikes.
• Maintain ACCUMULATE with a lower target price of US$370 (prev. US$380) as we lower FY26e earnings by 3% from lower principal transactions, asset management and investment banking estimates. Our GGM valuation assumes 2.93x FY26e P/BV and an ROE estimate of 23.0%. We like JPM for its earnings diversity and asset-sensitive balance sheet. Rate hikes add to NII in 2027, while prime financing and advisory give it fee growth that does not depend on rates. Capital held back from buybacks is going into loans that management expects to earn more than the ~6% earnings yield on its shares, supporting book value growth into FY27e.

• SERT is proposing to internalise its manager for €114mn, a 14% discount to independent valuation, creating a fully integrated European logistics and digital infrastructure platform with c.€3.2bn of AUM. The transaction will be funded by issuing 40mn stapled securities to sponsor SWI Group at €2.00 each (€80mn), representing a 33% premium to the last traded price of €1.50 and close to NAV of €2.02.
• The acquisition pricing is attractive at 7.1x P/EBIT based on the effective consideration of €94mn, below the independent valuer’s 10.1x multiple. The transaction is expected to be 5.9% DPS accretive, supported by c.€11mn in third-party asset management fees and the elimination of external management fees. Even excluding the third-party asset management contracts, the transaction is expected to remain 3.1% DPS accretive. Completion remains subject to regulatory and third-party consents, as well as securityholder approval at an EGM.
• Maintain BUY with an unchanged DDM-derived TP of €1.89. We are positive on the transaction given its immediate DPS accretion and potential to capture additional earnings from the integrated operating platform. Our forecasts are unchanged pending completion. Strategically, internalisation brings SERT’s pan-European logistics and light-industrial operating capabilities in-house, while strategic cooperation agreements preserve exclusive access to SWI Group’s European logistics and light-industrial opportunities and preferred access to its specialist data centre capabilities. This supports SERT’s ambition to increase its logistics and light-industrial exposure towards 70% of its portfolio, from 55.7% currently, while providing potential for further growth through data centre conversions and its stake in AiOnX.

Overview BLOKS is a leader in China’s assembly character toys market. The company holds over 500 patents, possesses original IP capabilities, and has non-exclusive licenses for approximately 50 well-known IPs. Its product positioning is “high quality at a reasonable price.” Leveraging its product strength and supply chain advantages, BLOKS maintains cost competitiveness while continuously expanding its product categories. The company has established a multi-channel sales network, and since 2022, has primarily focused on offline channels centered on distributors. According to...
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