- In Feb26, the aviation sector delivered a steady performance. China Aviation Oil (CAO) led the rally at 14.1%, followed by Singapore Airlines, SIA Engineering and SATS Ltd. at 12.9%, 5.7%, and 2.6% respectively. We believe CAO outperformed due to its better than expected 2H results (net profit up 68.3% YoY).
- Scoot posted a strong February operational performance due to the low-cost carrier (LCC) benefiting more from the holiday travel spike ahead of Chinese New Year. It delivered a 19.7% YoY increase in passenger traffic for Feb26 (YTD26: up 16.2%). SIA's cargo carried grew 9.4% YoY, accelerating from the 2.6% YoY growth in Feb25. This was at the backdrop of marginally reduced cargo capacity (down 0.5%), likely attributed to lower demand from Americas and Europe, which registered an 18.4% and 19.7% drop in cargo load factor (CLF) respectively. CLF in East Asia was up 8.3% YoY, driven by Chinese New Year demand.
- We maintain a NEUTRAL stance on air transportation amid the escalating Iran conflict. With no clear timeline for resolution, jet fuel prices have spiked c. 100%, affecting airlines through i) unhedged fuel exposure, and ii) widening crack spreads, which raises cost even as carriers hedge on Brent crude (Asia Tapis Crude crack spread up 5x). Jet fuel is c. 30% of operating revenue for airlines.
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