The Positives
+ Better-than-expected membership additions despite price hikes. NFLX outperformed consensus expectations with 9.3mn net additions in 1Q24, driven by an 11%/19% YoY growth in its US/EU membership base – reaffirming our investment thesis of its undoubted ability to grow both volume and prices (NFLX increased prices in its US/EU markets mid-4Q23). As a result, revenue growth accelerated to 15% YoY (18% YoY FX neutral). We expect net additions for FY24e to remain fairly resilient (~24mn) due to: 1) continued momentum in Paid Sharing (converting password borrowers) and 2) higher take-up of its lower-priced ads plan. NFLX also translated its subscriber outperformance into a 79% YoY increase in PATMI, showcasing an increase in operating leverage – it beat consensus estimates on its bottom line by ~25%.
+ Rapid scaling of its ads business. NFLX continues to scale its ads business rapidly, growing its ad tier membership base 65% QoQ to ~40mn members (~14% of NFLX’s total membership) in 1Q24. Ad inventory has increased, while engagement and CPMs still remain strong. Its ads business is currently under-monetised due to existing supply-demand dynamics, although we expect this to ease as more advertisers come on board – NFLX’s ads business started in 4Q22.
+ Positive FY24e guidance indicating further margin expansion. NFLX revised its FY24e operating margin target to 25% (prev. 24%), which would be a 4% point increase vs FY23. NFLX’s commentary surrounding margins also suggests that the capital-intensive portion of building out its business is behind them, with a clear focus on margin expansion ahead. We expect the company to manage this by pulling on its three main levers: 1) organic membership growth through more engaging content, 2) increasing pricing, and 3) driving higher margin advertising revenue while maintaining current cash content spend levels.
The Negative
– Nil.
Jonathan covers the US technology sector focusing on internet companies. Formerly a national and professional athlete, he graduated from the University of Oregon with a Bachelor’s Degree in Social Sciences.