Tracking DOW, Nasdaq and S&P 500

[Les]

Investors fled for exit as if there is a fire. DOW hit previous high of 26612 and also S&P 500 at 3233. Both reversed from those levels. Nasdaq had a nasty bearish Engulfing bar. What is your take? 

[Research Department]

Hi Les,

Dow fails to hit my expectation at 27,000 region. Check out my shorter time frame wave analysis here (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/YM1!/EcGd9rxp-Keeping-my-long-position-open/). If you have been following my webinar, I have explain before that I expect a sub-wave (iii) to happen should the support turned resistance zone is invalidated.

Also, Nasdaq has reached my 11,000 expectation and the failure to break above will spell a longer-term 5 sub-wave downward spiral.

All in all, Dow and the SPX 500 is still within the range and well above the support. Should any strong bearish candle appear, then I think July is a month that the sell-down will begin. But prices should be holding up above 21,000(worst-case scenario) as the election years always sees an upside in equity.

 

[Les]

O wow…..impressive run and totally out of expectation judging at the way it reversed on Mon. DOW hit back to test resistant 26612. Looking at its future, it looked set to break it tonight. But have to see the close for fake breakout or resistance turn support. Comments? Thanks

[Research Department]

Hi Les, 

You are absolutely right. As far as I see, the main support and resistance is not yet invalidated. So keep on monitoring. Trade safe.

 

[Les]

S&P broke 3233 briefly and closed with a Doji bar below the line. Nasdaq still inside the engulfing bar on Mon.  DOW closed above 26612. Under what condition would you conclude that DOW has turned 26612 line into support?

[Research Department]

Hi Les,  Do refer to my previous report on 29th June to get a overall clear picture of the support I have mentioned. https://www.stocksbnb.com/tech-pulse/technical-analysis-u-s-market-the-sell-off-has-started-after-price-fails-to-hold-above-key-levels-across-all-asset-class/

As far as I’m concern, 26,612 region is just an immediate support/resistance level. The major resistance for Dow is still at 27,200. As we are speaking now, Dow Futures (YM1) is showing signs of a sell-down. So my best guess is now that the market is buying low and selling high with the range. 

• This reply was modified 3 years, 9 months ago by Research Department.

[Les]

What a vast difference from last Mon 13/7 with Nasdaq started to trend higher and not looked back throughout the night. But this time S&P hit resistance 3233 and ended with a bullish bar. DOW still lags behind. If DOW is leading….the other indexes are not following.

At what point can we say the uptrend has resumed?

[Research Department]

As far as I’m concern, which I have explained in my webinar during the first part, The Nasdaq has been leading the rally while the Dow is lagging behind. This shows a huge divergence between the Nasdaq and Dow and it is a worrying sign to me because the 3 indices are not confirming with each other. While SPX 500 breaks the immediate resistance briefly, will it be a false breakout for SPX 500 or a continued rally? Only time will tell. Also, there remains a major resistance at 3256-3300 region. 

So when will the uptrend resume? Technically speaking, the Nasdaq is already on an uptrend and it managed to stay above 10,000 psychological support and retest 11,000 speaks of how strong the bullish sentiment is for Nasdaq. As for the Dow and Spx 500, their prices have remained below the pre-COVID high and as such, I will classify them with the range. But if you factor in the 200-day moving average, prices has resumed above it and technically speaking, you may classify those 2 indices an uptrend. 

[Les]

Hi, DOW hit above your resistance fo 27200. Looks like the bull is pretty much alive, isn’t it?

S&P 500 also following. Nasdaq probably taking a break.

[Research Department]

Hi Les, 

Yes. The bull is pretty much alive. If you’re long still, do remember to use trailing stop.

[Author]

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