+ Rebound in spirits volume, revenue and margins. Spirits volume continue to pick up momentum, rising 10% YoY in 3Q23 to an estimated 152.7mn litres. Revenue rose a faster 12% YoY from higher selling price and better product mix of brown spirits.
– Beer earnings collapsed. EBITDA for beer operations was down 24%, largely from the drag in Sabeco operations. Margins contracted from weaker volumes, high raw material inventory and higher marketing spend in events to promote the brands.
We expect beer volumes for Sabeco to remain weak for the rest of the year. Any recovery is only expected early next year from economic uplift and lower raw material cost. Spirit volume may soften as festivities post-election wind down and farm incomes have been trending down.