“The Phillip 20” is a portfolio of our top technical picks of stocks on SGX.
In November, the Straits Times Index (STI) made decent advancement as it gained +1.76%. The continuation of the bullish momentum confirmed the formation of the next higher high point within this uptrend that was started in January 2016.
STI Weekly Chart – Immediate roadblock ahead at 3457 resistance area
Red line = 20 period moving average, Blue line = 60 period moving average, Green line = 200 period moving average
However, the STI might be facing some immediate roadblock ahead at the 3457 high. That resistance area was a pivotal point back in May 2013 and February 2015 where the STI experienced a correction of -11% and -2.9% respectively. Moreover, with the recent soaring bullish momentum, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has once again entered into the overbought condition. The current reading of the weekly RSI is at 71 (overbought) signals a high possibility of a correction here at the 3457 pivotal resistance area.
Nonetheless, from a long-term perspective, the uptrend that was established in January 2016 remains intact as price continues to form a series of higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL). Hence, if the correction does occur, we should see a higher low point being formed somewhere around the 20 week moving average and the 3354 resistance turned support area where the uptrend retakes control. The longer-term target for the bulls is the April 2015 high of 3549 points.
Amidst the rising STI, mainly propped up by the bank stocks, the “Phillip 20 Portfolio” underperformed in November due to the fading of momentum within the momentum stocks. Most of the position in the “Phillip 20 Portfolio” went into correction mode in November thus resulting in a drawdown of -4.3% in the portfolio while the STI gained +1.76%. The fading of the momentum also adversely impacted the total return since May as of end of November where the total return of the “Phillip 20 Portfolio “fell from 9.66% in October to 4.97% in November.
Winners
Both Valuetronics and Haw Par were closed out with a profit in November due to the bearish price action that was exhibited. Valuetronics was closed out at 1.005 with an equal-weighted gain of 1.1% while Haw Par was closed out at 11.98 with an equal-weighted gain of 0.48%.
Losers
Due to the weakening momentum BlackGoldNatural, Chasen and OUE have triggered their stop losses resulting in equal weighted loss of 1.24%, 0.65% and 0.28% respectively.
New Entries
Three new trades were included in the portfolio, namely, BreadTalk, Golden Agri-Res and Sinostar Pec in November.
Note: The following two positions are pending;
CityDev pending entry price is at 12.56. The lack of bullish follow through after the last update took price back into a correction. If price breaks below the 11.78 low, this trade will be invalidated.
Important Information
This report is prepared and/or distributed by Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd ("Phillip Securities Research"), which is a holder of a financial adviser’s licence under the Financial Advisers Act, Chapter 110 in Singapore.
By receiving or reading this report, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. Any failure to comply with these terms and limitations may constitute a violation of law. This report has been provided to you for personal use only and shall not be reproduced, distributed or published by you in whole or in part, for any purpose. If you have received this report by mistake, please delete or destroy it, and notify the sender immediately.
The information and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively, the “Research”) contained in this report has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities Research believes to be reliable. However, Phillip Securities Research does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied that such information or Research is accurate, complete or appropriate or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this report is subject to change, and Phillip Securities Research shall not have any responsibility to maintain or update the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith.
Any opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, valuations and prices contained in this report are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. Past performance of any product referred to in this report is not indicative of future results.
This report does not constitute, and should not be used as a substitute for, tax, legal or investment advice. This report should not be relied upon exclusively or as authoritative, without further being subject to the recipient’s own independent verification and exercise of judgment. The fact that this report has been made available constitutes neither a recommendation to enter into a particular transaction, nor a representation that any product described in this report is suitable or appropriate for the recipient. Recipients should be aware that many of the products, which may be described in this report involve significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, and that any decision to enter into transactions involving such products should not be made, unless all such risks are understood and an independent determination has been made that such transactions would be appropriate. Any discussion of the risks contained herein with respect to any product should not be considered to be a disclosure of all risks or a complete discussion of such risks.
Nothing in this report shall be construed to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any product. Any decision to purchase any product mentioned in this report should take into account existing public information, including any registered prospectus in respect of such product.
Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may provide an array of financial services to a large number of corporations in Singapore and worldwide, including but not limited to commercial / investment banking activities (including sponsorship, financial advisory or underwriting activities), brokerage or securities trading activities. Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have participated in or invested in transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this report, and may have performed services for or solicited business from such issuers. Additionally, Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have provided advice or investment services to such companies and investments or related investments, as may be mentioned in this report.
Phillip Securities Research or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report may, from time to time maintain a long or short position in securities referred to herein, or in related futures or options, purchase or sell, make a market in, or engage in any other transaction involving such securities, and earn brokerage or other compensation in respect of the foregoing. Investments will be denominated in various currencies including US dollars and Euro and thus will be subject to any fluctuation in exchange rates between US dollars and Euro or foreign currencies and the currency of your own jurisdiction. Such fluctuations may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income return of the investment.
To the extent permitted by law, Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may at any time engage in any of the above activities as set out above or otherwise hold an interest, whether material or not, in respect of companies and investments or related investments, which may be mentioned in this report. Accordingly, information may be available to Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, which is not reflected in this report, and Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may, to the extent permitted by law, have acted upon or used the information prior to or immediately following its publication. Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have issued other material that is inconsistent with, or reach different conclusions from, the contents of this report.
The information, tools and material presented herein are not directed, intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to the applicable law or regulation or which would subject Phillip Securities Research to any registration or licensing or other requirement, or penalty for contravention of such requirements within such jurisdiction.
This report is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The products mentioned in this report may not be suitable for all investors and a person receiving or reading this report should seek advice from a professional and financial adviser regarding the legal, business, financial, tax and other aspects including the suitability of such products, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of that person, before making a commitment to invest in any of such products.
This report is not intended for distribution, publication to or use by any person in any jurisdiction outside of Singapore or any other jurisdiction as Phillip Securities Research may determine in its absolute discretion.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES FOR INCLUDED RESEARCH ANALYSES OR REPORTS OF FOREIGN RESEARCH HOUSE
Where the report contains research analyses or reports from a foreign research house, please note:
Jeremy specialises in Technical Analysis and has 10 years of experience in studying price action. His areas of expertise include intermarket analysis on the equities, currencies, commodities and bonds market.
He is also a regular columnist on The Business Times - every Monday ChartPoint column.
He graduated with a Bachelor of Science in Banking and Finance from University of London.
