Singapore Strategy – A fall worse than SARS March 13, 2020 1320
Since the first reported case of Covid-19 in China on 31Dec19, STI has fallen 16.8%. Considering the time elapsed, the decline was swifter and worse than the -15.5% during the SARS outbreak in 2002/03 (Figure 2).
To juxtapose, the most severe sell-offs during the Global and Asian Financial Crisis resulted in a 62% decline in STI from peak-to-trough.
While it is impossible to ascertain the peak of the spread of Covid-19, some positives for the STI include record low interest rates and valuations, government stimulus globally and the dramatic reduction and containment of new Covid-19 cases in China (Figure 3).
We remain Overweight on the banking, telecommunications and electronics sectors.
Figure 2 quantifies the impact of the sell-off in the STI as identified by the shaded areas in Figure 1.
About the author
Paul Chew Head of Research Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd
Paul has 20 years of experience as a fund manager and sell-side analyst. During his time as fund manager, he has managed multiple funds and mandates including capital guaranteed, dividend income, renewable energy, single country and regionally focused funds.
He graduated from Monash University and had completed both his Chartered Financial Analyst and Australian CPA programme.