Strong Feb-18 data affirmed a sustainable momentum into 2018
Notably, sales of luxury products (jewellery, watches and valuable gifts) rose 21% YoY in the first two months.
Food & Beverages Services increased 4.9% YoY in Feb-18, but fell 4.5% for the first two months. This is in contrast with Food retailers, which recorded sales growth of 61.2% in Feb-18 and 14.3% in the first two months. This could imply a potential change in consumer preference to dine-in.
Slower than expected Beer demand in Thailand
Historically, the road to recovery post-excise tax hike takes about 4 months (see Figure 17). However, domestic beer sales continue to slide in Feb-18 – the 5th month since Sep-17. We are still hopeful of a recovery in domestic beer demand on the back of a low 2017 base and as the excise tax effect subside. The March and April (Songkran) sales will paint a better picture on consumer sentiment. Notwithstanding that, we also expect the 2018 FIFA World Cup to kick up beer sales in both Thailand and Vietnam by c.10% this year.
FNN, a proxy to Vinamilk’s strong growth and market dominance
Strong demand for Dairies should bolster the slowdown in non-alcoholic beverages (NAB). The strong demand for milk in Vietnam should support the FNN’s Dairies profitability.
Vinamilk posted revenue of VND51.135trn (USD2.24bn) and earnings of VND10.278trn (USD0.45bn) in 2017. It aims to increase its total revenue by 8.5% and its earnings by 4.6% in 2018. Vinamilk also plans to raise its market share in Vietnam by 1% each year, reaching at least 60% in the next five years. Its current market share is 58%, up 2% from 2017.
FNN currently has c.19.95% stake in Vinamilk and intends to further accumulate its interest in Vinamilk. However, it may face competition from Jardine C&C, whom has acquired c.10% interest in Vinamilk and has one representative on Vinamilk’s board. On a brighter note, the strategic partnership between Vinamilk and Jardine Matheson Group could accelerate Vinamilk’s plan to boost its export sales.
Worth noting that Vinamilk will issue preferential shares to existing shareholders at the ratio of 5:1, which would increase its chartered capital by 20% to VND17.415trn.
Expect upcoming elections to underpin consumer confidence, particularly in Malaysia
Consumer could be adopting a wait-and-see attitude on retail spending. The start of official election campaign (which could include government cash handout) would spur consumer spending. Post-election, consumer spending could improve further with stimulus spending and consumers releasing pent-up demand.
The Malaysia government has disbursed the first of three parts of the cash handout (under BR1M programme) in Feb-18, aimed at increasing household spending for lower income households. The next payouts are scheduled for June and in August. The government paid a total amount of RM6.8bn for BR1M last year.
On top of BR1M disbursements, the Prime Minister Najib’s generous pre-election budget of RM280bn has also set aside a one-time RM1,500 payments to 1.6 million civil servants, income tax relief and aid to rural communities.
Investment actions
Maintain Overweight on Consumer Sector. Brighter regional economy outlook would lift job and wage growth, thus fuelling consumer spending.
North Asia and ASEAN Retail Landscape at a Glance
Important Information
This report is prepared and/or distributed by Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd ("Phillip Securities Research"), which is a holder of a financial adviser’s licence under the Financial Advisers Act, Chapter 110 in Singapore.
By receiving or reading this report, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. Any failure to comply with these terms and limitations may constitute a violation of law. This report has been provided to you for personal use only and shall not be reproduced, distributed or published by you in whole or in part, for any purpose. If you have received this report by mistake, please delete or destroy it, and notify the sender immediately.
The information and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively, the “Research”) contained in this report has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities Research believes to be reliable. However, Phillip Securities Research does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied that such information or Research is accurate, complete or appropriate or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this report is subject to change, and Phillip Securities Research shall not have any responsibility to maintain or update the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith.
Any opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, valuations and prices contained in this report are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. Past performance of any product referred to in this report is not indicative of future results.
This report does not constitute, and should not be used as a substitute for, tax, legal or investment advice. This report should not be relied upon exclusively or as authoritative, without further being subject to the recipient’s own independent verification and exercise of judgment. The fact that this report has been made available constitutes neither a recommendation to enter into a particular transaction, nor a representation that any product described in this report is suitable or appropriate for the recipient. Recipients should be aware that many of the products, which may be described in this report involve significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, and that any decision to enter into transactions involving such products should not be made, unless all such risks are understood and an independent determination has been made that such transactions would be appropriate. Any discussion of the risks contained herein with respect to any product should not be considered to be a disclosure of all risks or a complete discussion of such risks.
Nothing in this report shall be construed to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any product. Any decision to purchase any product mentioned in this report should take into account existing public information, including any registered prospectus in respect of such product.
Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may provide an array of financial services to a large number of corporations in Singapore and worldwide, including but not limited to commercial / investment banking activities (including sponsorship, financial advisory or underwriting activities), brokerage or securities trading activities. Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have participated in or invested in transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this report, and may have performed services for or solicited business from such issuers. Additionally, Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have provided advice or investment services to such companies and investments or related investments, as may be mentioned in this report.
Phillip Securities Research or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report may, from time to time maintain a long or short position in securities referred to herein, or in related futures or options, purchase or sell, make a market in, or engage in any other transaction involving such securities, and earn brokerage or other compensation in respect of the foregoing. Investments will be denominated in various currencies including US dollars and Euro and thus will be subject to any fluctuation in exchange rates between US dollars and Euro or foreign currencies and the currency of your own jurisdiction. Such fluctuations may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income return of the investment.
To the extent permitted by law, Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may at any time engage in any of the above activities as set out above or otherwise hold an interest, whether material or not, in respect of companies and investments or related investments, which may be mentioned in this report. Accordingly, information may be available to Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, which is not reflected in this report, and Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may, to the extent permitted by law, have acted upon or used the information prior to or immediately following its publication. Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have issued other material that is inconsistent with, or reach different conclusions from, the contents of this report.
The information, tools and material presented herein are not directed, intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to the applicable law or regulation or which would subject Phillip Securities Research to any registration or licensing or other requirement, or penalty for contravention of such requirements within such jurisdiction.
This report is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The products mentioned in this report may not be suitable for all investors and a person receiving or reading this report should seek advice from a professional and financial adviser regarding the legal, business, financial, tax and other aspects including the suitability of such products, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of that person, before making a commitment to invest in any of such products.
This report is not intended for distribution, publication to or use by any person in any jurisdiction outside of Singapore or any other jurisdiction as Phillip Securities Research may determine in its absolute discretion.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES FOR INCLUDED RESEARCH ANALYSES OR REPORTS OF FOREIGN RESEARCH HOUSE
Where the report contains research analyses or reports from a foreign research house, please note:
Lin Sin has been an investment analyst in Phillip Securities Research since June 2014, where she started as an economist, focusing on China and ASEAN macroeconomics. Currently, she covers primarily the Consumers and Healthcare sectors in Singapore equities market.
She graduated with a Bachelor of Science in Mathematics and Economics from NTU.
