The results were in line with our expectations, though the mix was disappointing. Food solutions remained in the red with operating loss of S$0.9mn despite recovery in revenue to pre-Covid levels. WFS contributed operating profit of S$73mn for the first time, or operating margin of 5.1%. 2Q24’s net profit turned around to S$22.2mn (1Q24: net loss S$29.9mn). This was also due to lower depreciation charge of about S$20mn.
EBIT barely covered the higher interest expenses on debt incurred for the acquisition. Net debt as at end Sep 2023 was S$2.3bn or net gearing of 0.9x.
Maintain our earnings forecast, but downgrade to REDUCE (from NEUTRAL) and a lower TP of S$2.23 (prev. S$2.51), to factor in higher working capital at WFS.
The Negatives
SATS-only operating margin was just 0.3%. Excluding the contribution from Worldwide Flight Services (WFS), operating profit was S$3mn. Despite revenue returning to the pre-Covid level of 1H20, food solutions incurred a marginal operating loss of S$0.9mn We believe the key reasons were 1) rise in operating costs, chiefly staff costs due to a manpower shortage in Singapore and Hong Kong; 2) fall in revenue from non-aviation (-13.8% YoY) due to lower catering and distribution demand. Flights at Singapore Changi Airport have been restored to about 89% of pre-Covid levels. Further growth is limited given the manpower and capacity bottlenecks faced by airlines. Thus, we are concerned that further improvement in food solutions earnings could be muted.
1H24 EBIT barely covered interest expenses. Net debt rose to S$2.3bn and net gearing of 0.9x after the acquisition of WFS.
The Positive
Cargo volume reversed into growth in August and September. If the momentum sustains, operating leverage from higher volume could lift overall operating margin from 3.1% currently.
Outlook
Rising costs and interest expenses could impede earnings recovery. Working capital needs could rise with the inclusion of WFS. We downgrade to a REDUCE recommendation (from Neutral) and DCF-derived TP of S$2.23 (prev. S$2.51).
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About the author
Peggy Mak Research Manager PSR
Peggy has been a sell-side equity analyst for 22 years and a fund manager for 15 years.