3QFY17 profit seen up 53% q-q on wider market GRM

We expect PTTGC to report a solid set of results for 3QFY17, helped in large degree by a better showing from its refinery business driven by higher market GRM and a crude stock gain. Our forecast shows PTTGC will post a 53% q-q rise in 3QFY17 profit to Bt10,098mn on expectations that (i) its refinery business will perform better on the back of wider market GRM and a potential crude-stock gain of around Bt1.2bn after a US$0.8/barrel rise in crude oil prices to US$50.6/barrel, (ii) its olefins and derivative business will put in a better showing on higher olefins utilization rate and sustained levels of HDPE prices, (iii) its aromatics business will turn in a softer performance after a US$13/ton in PX-condensate spreads to US$372/ton, and (iv) it will book a FX gain of around Bt246mn due chiefly to modest appreciation of the baht.