Prime US REIT – Bottoming out expected at year-end August 5, 2021 933

PSR Recommendation: ACCUMULATE Status: Maintained
Target Price: 0.940
  • 1H21 NPI and distributable income met expectations, at 46% of our FY21e estimates. Despite higher rental reversions and income contributions from Park Tower, NPI declined 2.3% YoY due to lower portfolio occupancy and transient parking income.
  • Two new properties were acquired in new markets with longer WALEs and higher occupancies than portfolio. We expect greater resilience and earnings visibility from an enlarged portfolio.
  • Maintain ACCUMULATE and DDM target price of US$0.94 (COE 9.5%). FY21e/FY22e DPUs lowered by 10.5%/0.7% to reflect lower carpark income and softer leasing, offset by reversions and rental income from new acquisitions. Catalysts include improved leasing and a greater return to office.

 

The Positives

+ Positive reversions. Prime signed 52,349 sq ft of leases in 2Q21 at positive rental reversions of 10.5%. Excluding short-term lease extensions of 9,931 sq ft, rental reversions were 13.3%. This could be credited to leases signed at 101 South Hanley and Tower 909, where expiring rents are 11-13.5% below market. Positive rent reversions are expected going into 3Q, as portfolio rents are below asking rents by 6.4%.

 

+ Acquisitions enhance resilience. As of 23 July, Prime completed the acquisition of two new properties: Sorrento Towers in San Diego and One Town Center in Florida. San Diego is one of the top 10 tech cities in the US, where demand from the biotechnology, biopharmaceutical, international trade, high-tech and defence sectors is strong. South Florida is one of the top 10 states for population in-migration thanks to its favourable tax climate and quality of life. These acquisitions introduce Prime to two new markets and increase its exposure to key industry sectors. They have also extended its portfolio WALE from 4.4 to 4.6 years. Occupancy at both properties is above portfolio occupancy of 91.7%, at 98.2% and 94.7% respectively. This improves earnings visibility. The acquisitions were funded by debt and equity. Proforma DPU could be lifted by an estimated 2.4% after acquisition, based on FY20 figures.

 

The Negative

– Lower portfolio occupancy and carpark income vis-à-vis a year ago. Despite its positive rental reversions and contributions from Park Tower acquired on 24 February 2020, 1H21 gross revenue climbed only 2.6% YoY. This is due to lower portfolio occupancy of 91.7% as compared to 93% a year ago, as well as reduced transient parking income which historically comprised mid to high single digits of Prime’s topline. Property expenses also increased 25.4% YoY with new expenses from Park Tower. As such, NPI and distributable income fell 2.3%/1.3% YoY. DPU declined 5.4% YoY from a larger unit base.

 

Outlook

Leasing weakness may persist in 3Q21. Aided by widespread vaccinations and a return of employees to their offices, physical occupancy increased to 25-30% from 15-20% in the last 30 days. Leasing, however, remains below pre-pandemic levels, especially with continued new supply in CBD submarkets. National office vacancies rose to 17.2% in 2Q21 from 15.7% in 1Q21. Although Prime has been discussing leasing with prospective tenants especially in Denver and tours of office space increased over 80% from January to May 2021 according to VTS, actual space commitments usually lag leasing decisions by a few months. This means that committed portfolio occupancy can be expected to bottom out only in 4Q this year.

 

Maintain ACCUMULATE and DDM TP of US$0.94.

We factor in additional income from its newly acquired properties but lower our rental and occupancy assumptions for FY21e to capture declines in its carpark income and a softer leasing market. After accounting for a larger unit base, DPU estimates for FY21e/FY22e have been lowered by 10.5% and 0.7% respectively. Our TP is largely unchanged. Current price translates to FY21e distribution yields of 8.1% for total potential upside of 22.0%.

Important Information

This report is prepared and/or distributed by Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd ("Phillip Securities Research"), which is a holder of a financial adviser’s licence under the Financial Advisers Act, Chapter 110 in Singapore.

By receiving or reading this report, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. Any failure to comply with these terms and limitations may constitute a violation of law. This report has been provided to you for personal use only and shall not be reproduced, distributed or published by you in whole or in part, for any purpose. If you have received this report by mistake, please delete or destroy it, and notify the sender immediately.

The information and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively, the “Research”) contained in this report has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities Research believes to be reliable. However, Phillip Securities Research does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied that such information or Research is accurate, complete or appropriate or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this report is subject to change, and Phillip Securities Research shall not have any responsibility to maintain or update the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith.

Any opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, valuations and prices contained in this report are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. Past performance of any product referred to in this report is not indicative of future results.

This report does not constitute, and should not be used as a substitute for, tax, legal or investment advice. This report should not be relied upon exclusively or as authoritative, without further being subject to the recipient’s own independent verification and exercise of judgment. The fact that this report has been made available constitutes neither a recommendation to enter into a particular transaction, nor a representation that any product described in this report is suitable or appropriate for the recipient. Recipients should be aware that many of the products, which may be described in this report involve significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, and that any decision to enter into transactions involving such products should not be made, unless all such risks are understood and an independent determination has been made that such transactions would be appropriate. Any discussion of the risks contained herein with respect to any product should not be considered to be a disclosure of all risks or a complete discussion of such risks.

Nothing in this report shall be construed to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any product. Any decision to purchase any product mentioned in this report should take into account existing public information, including any registered prospectus in respect of such product.

Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may provide an array of financial services to a large number of corporations in Singapore and worldwide, including but not limited to commercial / investment banking activities (including sponsorship, financial advisory or underwriting activities), brokerage or securities trading activities. Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have participated in or invested in transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this report, and may have performed services for or solicited business from such issuers. Additionally, Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have provided advice or investment services to such companies and investments or related investments, as may be mentioned in this report.

Phillip Securities Research or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report may, from time to time maintain a long or short position in securities referred to herein, or in related futures or options, purchase or sell, make a market in, or engage in any other transaction involving such securities, and earn brokerage or other compensation in respect of the foregoing. Investments will be denominated in various currencies including US dollars and Euro and thus will be subject to any fluctuation in exchange rates between US dollars and Euro or foreign currencies and the currency of your own jurisdiction. Such fluctuations may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income return of the investment.

To the extent permitted by law, Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may at any time engage in any of the above activities as set out above or otherwise hold an interest, whether material or not, in respect of companies and investments or related investments, which may be mentioned in this report. Accordingly, information may be available to Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, which is not reflected in this report, and Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may, to the extent permitted by law, have acted upon or used the information prior to or immediately following its publication. Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have issued other material that is inconsistent with, or reach different conclusions from, the contents of this report.

The information, tools and material presented herein are not directed, intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to the applicable law or regulation or which would subject Phillip Securities Research to any registration or licensing or other requirement, or penalty for contravention of such requirements within such jurisdiction.

This report is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The products mentioned in this report may not be suitable for all investors and a person receiving or reading this report should seek advice from a professional and financial adviser regarding the legal, business, financial, tax and other aspects including the suitability of such products, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of that person, before making a commitment to invest in any of such products.

This report is not intended for distribution, publication to or use by any person in any jurisdiction outside of Singapore or any other jurisdiction as Phillip Securities Research may determine in its absolute discretion.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES FOR INCLUDED RESEARCH ANALYSES OR REPORTS OF FOREIGN RESEARCH HOUSE

Where the report contains research analyses or reports from a foreign research house, please note:

  1. recipients of the analyses or reports are to contact Phillip Securities Research (and not the relevant foreign research house) in Singapore at 250 North Bridge Road, #06-00 Raffles City Tower, Singapore 179101, telephone number +65 6533 6001, in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, the analyses or reports; and
  2. to the extent that the analyses or reports are delivered to and intended to be received by any person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor, Phillip Securities Research accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the analyses or reports.
Subscribe
Notify of
guest
0 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

Get access to all the latest market news, reports, technical analysis
by signing up for a free account today!