简介
能源行业是由石油和天然气勘探(上游)，运输和储存(中游)以及产品精炼(下游)等公司组成。大多数油气公司都是综合性的，涉及整个价值链。该行业还包括热能煤和铀，而其所占的比重不到1%。
基本面
美元下跌对该行业普遍有利。然而，自2004年起，向清洁能源的长期转变一直在进行着。我们相信这趋势将一直延续下去。自2004年以来，美国的可再生能源产能投资一直以18.5%的复合年均增长率在增长。这是全球第二大增长，仅次于中国(见图1)。尽管在特朗普任期内，放松了对能源行业的监管，但可再生能源产能的投资每两年仍以15.6%的复合年均增长率在增长。这意味着，这一转变的势头是势不可挡的。
2020年末，对石油产能削减6.1%或可缓解供应过剩的局面，但可能不足以抵消因新冠肺炎导致的需求更大幅度的8.5%的降幅。因此，我们认为供应过剩的情况将会持续下去。根据EIA预测，截至2021年底，全球石油需求仍将比新冠疫情前的水平下降2.4%左右。同样，截至2021年(见图3)，过剩产能可能仍比新冠前的水平高出36%。如果这种情况成为现实，那供过于求将延续至2021年以后，从而抑制油价。
任何病毒的死灰复燃都可能引发新一轮的部分地区封锁，并延长旅游限制。疫情的第二波将毁坏经济复苏，并导致美国2020年末的GDP下降8.5%，而目前的降幅为7.3% (见图2)。这使能源行业的持续复苏更是充满悬念。
美国大选 – 政策概述
拜登和特朗普在环境政策和气候变化的问题上持相反的立场。
行业前景
特朗普连任可能对能源行业有利。在他当前的任期内，原油的月度开采、采石和产量在2019年底增幅接近45%，创下历史新高(见图4)。这在一定程度上，归疚于气候和环境政策的积极倒退。
如拜登胜出后，他很可能会恢复被特朗普取消的环境政策。恢复到特朗普出任总统之前的产能水平，将意味着从当前水平下降12.8%。由于价格在近期受到抑制，产量的进一步下降将对能源行业产生负面影响。
相反，拜登可能会加快对美国可再生能源产能的投资，寻求缩小与中国的差距，自2012年以来，中国在可再生能源产能投资方面一直超越了美国(见图1)。仅在四年内投资达到2万亿美元，就意味着比目前的投资水平增长了8.2%。我们也可预期，将有更多的企业采用清洁能源，因为这与政府的政策保持一致。
估值 / 相对强势：
截至2020年三季度末，能源板块的市盈率为0.99倍，低于其五年历史平均市盈率1.81倍的水平。短期来看，该板块继续落后于整体市场。在标准普尔500的能源股中，仅有8%处于其50日移动均线之上交易。这与在标准普尔500中占比77.9%，在50日移动均线上交易的股票相比，就显得相形见绌了。
建议：
如果拜登当选，我们看好其2万亿美元的气候计划中的清洁能源领域。我们相信，无论谁当选总统，向清洁能源的长期转变都将继续下去，只不过，如拜登当选将大大加快这一进程。如特朗普获胜，将有利于该板块的发展，而当前的估值似乎颇具吸引力。然而，基于长期的供应过剩，及病毒卷土重来的风险，我们对该行业仍保持谨慎的态度。
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