Phillip Macro U.S Elections – Flash Update November 4, 2020 744

  • Results from Arizona, Florida and North Carolina may be fairly representative of final results, considering that mail-in voting can be processed weeks before election day.
  • However, results from Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin may favour Trump initially from the in-person votes. Mail-in ballots which will be processed later will then show Biden gaining grounds.
  • Assuming Biden’s 209 votes currently (Figure 1), the path to cross 270 is to win Pennsylvania (20 votes) and to secure a combination of two other battleground states between Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin.
  • The race for Senate is closely tied to the presidential race. Current preliminary results do not show a clear lead and indicates a close race.

 

Preliminary results for presidency race

Preliminary results suggest that both Biden and Trump are able to secure their respective strongholds, similar to 2016. The key focus will be on the six key battleground states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Results from Arizona, Florida and North Carolina may be fairly representative of final results, considering that mail-in voting can be processed weeks before election day. However, results from Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin may favour Trump initially from the in-person votes. Mail-in ballots which will be processed later will then show Biden gaining grounds. Hence, results on election day for these states are likely not representative of final results. Assuming Biden’s 209 votes currently (Figure 1), the path to cross 270 is to win Pennsylvania (20 votes) and to secure a combination of two other battleground states between Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin.

 

Paths to victory

Looking ahead, if the results from Arizona and Florida is decisive, the key focus will be on Pennsylvania. Biden will have to secure Pennsylvania and either Michigan or Wisconsin to secure his win. If Trump secured Pennsylvania, Biden may lose the presidential race. The results from Pennsylvania may be delayed and therefore, we may not be seeing a decisive winner on the presidency seat today. Assuming Biden’s 209 votes currently (Figure 1), the path to cross 270 is to win Pennsylvania (20 votes) and to secure a combination of two other battleground states between Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin, in order to exceed the necessary 270 votes.

 

Race for Senate

The race for Senate is closely tied to the presidential race, with several senate toss-up states being key battleground states for the presidential election. Current preliminary results do not show a clear lead and indicates a close race if the results hold true in the end. Therefore, results are hard to be determined at current point of time.

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