According to data from the BCA, demand for RMC for the first nine months of 2022 was ~8.8mn cu/m, about 8% lower than our estimate but higher than ~8.5mn cu/m in the same period last year (Figure 1). The construction recovery has slowed, with contracts awarded for the first nine months of 2022 5.3% lower than 2021. Construction progress payments for the same period, however, rose in 2022 by 14.2%.
No results update from PanU as it has moved to half-yearly reporting.
+ Construction progress payments for first 9 months of 2022 rose 14.2% YoY. We believe construction progress payments were higher due to the relaxation of border restrictions on the inflow of migrant workers in 2022. This is an important metric, as it tracks work done in the sector.
– Workplace fatalities hampered recovery. As of 1 Sept 2022, the number of workplace fatalities stands at 36 for the whole of 2022, up from the 28 workplace fatalities reported for the first six months of 2022, many of which were in the construction industry. As a result of the Heightened Safety period imposed by the Ministry of Manpower (MOM), local construction projects are, in general, progressing slower than expected. The time-outs and punitive measures imposed on the sector has slowed construction progress.
– Contracts awarded for first 10 months of 2022 9.4% weaker than 2021. Despite the strong pipeline of projects, contracts awarded slowed in 3Q22 as workplace fatalities hampered project progression rates.