The Positives
+ Beat on both top and bottom line showing year of efficiency has played out well. Revenue of US$40.1bn beat our estimates by 7%, driven by a 3% FX tailwind, a 21% YoY growth in ad impressions, and a 2% YoY increase in average price per ad (CPM). CPMs grew for the first time in 2 years, driven largely by APAC+China demand. 4Q24 PATMI increased 3x YoY to US$14.0bn, as META benefitted from strong revenue growth and a much leaner workforce – headcount/total expenses were both down 22%/8% YoY, respectively.
+ Well-positioned to build the most advanced AI products with a stockpile of GPUs. META remains focused on building out its tech infrastructure, stating that it intends to have the equivalent of ~600K H100 GPUs (350K H100s + remaining 250K of other GPUs) worth of computing power by the end of FY24e. This is enough compute to support Reels, and another Reels-sized AI service. In addition, its open-source software infrastructure should help attract top AI talent to develop Llama models and other AI products.
+ Reels commentary positive, contributing net revenue to META. In 4Q23, Reels drove >25% YoY growth in daily watch time across all video types, with Reels re-shared 3.5bn times a day. Historically, Reels growth has been a headwind to overall revenue growth due to its lower monetisation levels. However, it is starting to contribute net revenue to META, with the company further expecting Reels to leverage a unified recommendation system across all META patforms to drive further views and engagement.
The Negative
– Raised top end of FY24e CAPEX guidance. META raised the top end of its CAPEX guidance for FY24e by US$2bn, to US$30bn-US$37bn, indicating it expects the need for higher levels of server capacity to support more intense AI product development. We raise our FY24e CAPEX by 3% as a result.
Jonathan covers the US technology sector focusing on internet companies. Formerly a national and professional athlete, he graduated from the University of Oregon with a Bachelor’s Degree in Social Sciences.