Mapletree Industrial Trust: Consistent set of results July 26, 2017 1853

PSR Recommendation: ACCUMULATE Status: Upgraded
Target Price: 1.98
  • 1Q18 gross revenue in line with our forecast
  • 1Q18 DPU exceeded our forecast by 6.6% from slower increase in property expenses
  • Portfolio weighted average rental reversion of -2.0% for the quarter
  • Raised FY18e/FY19e DPU forecast by 2.1%/1.2%, as we revised our property expense assumptions

1

The positives

  • Organic growth drove revenue: Phase One of Hewlett-Packard (HP) build to suit (BTS), completed in October 2016, has started to contribute significantly to revenue. The completion of Phase Two on 23 June will be another trigger to revenue growth.
  • Pre-emptive divestment of non-core asset: Divested 65 Tech Park Crescent (Light Industrial Building) on 20 July at its last valuation (as at end-March 2017) of S$17.6 million, which is 34% above the acquisition price in 2010. The Manager had anticipated efficiency loss if the property were to be converted to a multi-tenanted building when the existing master lease expires in November 2017. Divestment proceeds will be redeployed into the ongoing committed development projects.
  • No interest rate exposure for FY18: 72.8% of total debt has been hedged for a weighted average tenor of 3.7 years. No hedges are expiring in FY18.

The negatives

  • Marginally lower QoQ occupancy from 93.1% to 92.6%: Driven by lower occupancies at Flatted Factories (non-renewals by some tenants) and Hi-Tech Buildings (temporary effect following completion of Phase Two of the HP BTS which was unoccupied).
  • Portfolio weighted average rental reversion of -2.0%: Driven by negative reversions at Hi-Tech Buildings (-7.7%), Business Park Buildings (-4.5%) and Stack-up/Ramp-up Buildings (-1.5%). The lower rent at Hi-Tech Buildings came mainly from tenant renewals at the Toa Payoh North 1 cluster. Meanwhile, lower rent at Business Park Buildings was from a larger tenant (Sony) renewing about 80,000 sq ft of space.

Outlook

The outlook remains stable. While sector-wide reversions remain weak, there is a tapering of supply of industrial space in 2018 and indications of an uptick in industrial activity.  Mapletree Industrial Trust (MINT) has a pipeline of projects coming on stream (see overleaf). Management reiterated its desire to increase the REIT’s exposure to the data centre asset class.

Upgrade to Accumulate from Neutral; higher target price of $1.98 (previously $1.80)

We raised our FY18e/FY19e DPU forecast by 2.1%/1.2% as we revisit our property expenses assumptions. We also increased our terminal growth assumption to 1.5% from 0.5% previously, on account of the visible pipeline of projects, but more importantly, at 29.8% gearing, MINT has >S$600 million of debt headroom available – potentially growing the portfolio by ~17%. Our target price represents an implied 1.41x FY18e P/NAV multiple, which compares against the FTSE REIT Index forward 12-months P/NAV multiple of 1.05x.

Update to 30A Kallang Place and Kallang Basin 4 Cluster AEI

The asset enhancement initiative (AEI) remains on track for completion in 1Q 2018. The super-structure has been completed up to the tenth storey. Pre-commitment level remains unchanged from the previous quarter – a child care centre taking up about 3% of the space.

2

Update to New Data Centre BTS

The key highlight was an increase in estimated cost to S$76 million from S$60 million previously. The increase in development cost is due to additional specifications by the user. There will be a corresponding improvement in rent as well.

3

Source: Company 1QFY17/18 Financial Results Presentation, 25 July 2017

Relative valuation

MINT is trading above the peer average P/NAV multiple and at a lower 12M-trailing yield than the peer average.

4

Important Information

This report is prepared and/or distributed by Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd ("Phillip Securities Research"), which is a holder of a financial adviser’s licence under the Financial Advisers Act, Chapter 110 in Singapore.

By receiving or reading this report, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. Any failure to comply with these terms and limitations may constitute a violation of law. This report has been provided to you for personal use only and shall not be reproduced, distributed or published by you in whole or in part, for any purpose. If you have received this report by mistake, please delete or destroy it, and notify the sender immediately.

The information and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively, the “Research”) contained in this report has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities Research believes to be reliable. However, Phillip Securities Research does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied that such information or Research is accurate, complete or appropriate or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this report is subject to change, and Phillip Securities Research shall not have any responsibility to maintain or update the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith.

Any opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, valuations and prices contained in this report are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. Past performance of any product referred to in this report is not indicative of future results.

This report does not constitute, and should not be used as a substitute for, tax, legal or investment advice. This report should not be relied upon exclusively or as authoritative, without further being subject to the recipient’s own independent verification and exercise of judgment. The fact that this report has been made available constitutes neither a recommendation to enter into a particular transaction, nor a representation that any product described in this report is suitable or appropriate for the recipient. Recipients should be aware that many of the products, which may be described in this report involve significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, and that any decision to enter into transactions involving such products should not be made, unless all such risks are understood and an independent determination has been made that such transactions would be appropriate. Any discussion of the risks contained herein with respect to any product should not be considered to be a disclosure of all risks or a complete discussion of such risks.

Nothing in this report shall be construed to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any product. Any decision to purchase any product mentioned in this report should take into account existing public information, including any registered prospectus in respect of such product.

Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may provide an array of financial services to a large number of corporations in Singapore and worldwide, including but not limited to commercial / investment banking activities (including sponsorship, financial advisory or underwriting activities), brokerage or securities trading activities. Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have participated in or invested in transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this report, and may have performed services for or solicited business from such issuers. Additionally, Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have provided advice or investment services to such companies and investments or related investments, as may be mentioned in this report.

Phillip Securities Research or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report may, from time to time maintain a long or short position in securities referred to herein, or in related futures or options, purchase or sell, make a market in, or engage in any other transaction involving such securities, and earn brokerage or other compensation in respect of the foregoing. Investments will be denominated in various currencies including US dollars and Euro and thus will be subject to any fluctuation in exchange rates between US dollars and Euro or foreign currencies and the currency of your own jurisdiction. Such fluctuations may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income return of the investment.

To the extent permitted by law, Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may at any time engage in any of the above activities as set out above or otherwise hold an interest, whether material or not, in respect of companies and investments or related investments, which may be mentioned in this report. Accordingly, information may be available to Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, which is not reflected in this report, and Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may, to the extent permitted by law, have acted upon or used the information prior to or immediately following its publication. Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have issued other material that is inconsistent with, or reach different conclusions from, the contents of this report.

The information, tools and material presented herein are not directed, intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to the applicable law or regulation or which would subject Phillip Securities Research to any registration or licensing or other requirement, or penalty for contravention of such requirements within such jurisdiction.

This report is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The products mentioned in this report may not be suitable for all investors and a person receiving or reading this report should seek advice from a professional and financial adviser regarding the legal, business, financial, tax and other aspects including the suitability of such products, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of that person, before making a commitment to invest in any of such products.

This report is not intended for distribution, publication to or use by any person in any jurisdiction outside of Singapore or any other jurisdiction as Phillip Securities Research may determine in its absolute discretion.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES FOR INCLUDED RESEARCH ANALYSES OR REPORTS OF FOREIGN RESEARCH HOUSE

Where the report contains research analyses or reports from a foreign research house, please note:

  1. recipients of the analyses or reports are to contact Phillip Securities Research (and not the relevant foreign research house) in Singapore at 250 North Bridge Road, #06-00 Raffles City Tower, Singapore 179101, telephone number +65 6533 6001, in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, the analyses or reports; and
  2. to the extent that the analyses or reports are delivered to and intended to be received by any person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor, Phillip Securities Research accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the analyses or reports.
Subscribe
Notify of
guest
0 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

About the author

Profile photo of Richard Leow

Richard Leow
Research Analyst
Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd

Richard covers the Transport Sector and Industrial REITs. He graduated with a Master of Science in Applied Finance from the Singapore Management University. He holds the CFTe and FRM certifications and is a CFA charterholder.

He was ranked #2 Top Stock Picker (Asia) for Real Estate Investment Trusts in the 2018 Thomson Reuters Analyst Awards, and ranked #2 Top Stock Picker (Singapore) for Resources & Infrastructure in the 2016 Thomson Reuters Analyst Awards.

Get access to all the latest market news, reports, technical analysis
by signing up for a free account today!