Report type: Weekly Strategy
”Gazing at the “three shifts” relating to a weak dollar, commodities and emerging economies”
There are only a few days left in 2020 during which Covid-19 struck. As of 25/12, the Nikkei Average’s low for this year was 16,358 points, set on 19/3, and its high was 26,905 points, set on 21/12. The index fluctuated widely, at 5,273 points above and below the average of 21,631 points. The price of 21,631 points is between the low of 21,529 points on 15/6 and the low of 21,710 points on 31/7, and it is likely to function as a turning point in the price marking the bottoming out of the market in the event of a major decline in the future. Furthermore, the net asset price per share of 22,600 yen, calculated based on a weighted average PBR (price-to-book-value ratio) of 1.18 times as of the closing price on 24/12, is a price at which we can expect the lower limit to be reached if the market were to be oversold during a market adjustment phase.
I would like to mention “three shifts” as keywords when looking at the stock market in the coming year: (1) a risk-on weaker dollar shift as a result of the Fed’s monetary easing, (2) a commodities shift where commodity prices will be in the spotlight, and (3) an emerging markets shift where quantitative easing money flows into emerging markets as the dollar weakens.
The “shift to a weaker dollar” will create a structure and trend in which the expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet will reduce the supply of quantitative easing money in the US, making it more likely to flow to Japan and emerging economies instead. While the Japanese market had been playing the role of supplying quantitative easing money through the BOJ’s unconventional monetary easing since 2013, it is now suggested that it will be on the receiving end of quantitative easing money. US stocks have outperformed Japanese stocks since the Lehman shock, but the gap may narrow from next year.
In the “commodity shift,” prices of non-ferrous metals and precious metals are expected to soar as electric vehicles (EVs) and green energy infrastructure construction are promoted to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, the frequent occurrence of abnormal weather and natural disasters due to global warming, as well as changes in income levels, consumption and dietary habits in emerging countries with large and as yet growing populations, may lead to water and food shortages, which in turn may lead to higher grain prices. These factors will make it easier for overall commodity prices to soar.
A “shift to emerging markets” could, as a result of tighter antitrust laws and a weaker US dollar, see a shift from a structure in which market capitalization that is currently skewed toward a small number of major US high-tech companies, such as GAFA, to one in which investment funds flow to emerging markets with relatively low income levels. As a result, the income gap between developed and emerging markets will be narrowed. During the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) boom from 2000 to 2008, Russian stocks performed particularly well against the backdrop of soaring oil prices, but the next boom in emerging economies is likely to be led by countries with large populations, such as India, African countries and Indonesia.
In the 28/12 issue, we will be covering Healthcare & Medical Investment Corp (3455), IG Port (3791), Mitsubishi Materials (5711), and Toyota Tsusho (8015).
・A healthcare-focused J-REIT that has Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp and NEC Capital Solutions as major sponsors in addition to Ship Healthcare Holdings, which engages in the nursing care business. Acquired a J-REIT-first hospital asset in 2017/11.
・For the FY2020/7 (Feb-July) results announced on 15/9, operating revenue increased by 0.5% to 2.023 billion yen compared to the previous period (FY2020/1), operating income decreased by 2.8% to 1.072 billion yen, and distribution per unit decreased by 2.4% to 3,240 yen. Acquired two properties (total acquisition price: 1.456 billion yen): “Verde Hotaka” and “Sunny Life Kamakura”. The number of properties held at the end of the period was 35, and the occupancy rate was 100%.
・For FY2021/1 plan (2020/8-2021/1), operating revenue is expected to increase by 1.7% to 2.058 billion yen compared to the previous period (FY2020/7), operating income to decrease by 0.8% to 1.063 billion yen, and distribution per unit to decrease by 1.1% to 3,205 yen. The annual distribution yield (based on the closing price on 24/12) based on the company forecast for FY2021/7 is 5.08%. Amidst increasing uncertainty in the real estate market, particularly for commercial facilities and hotels, due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the corporation has concluded fixed-rent, long-term lease agreements with the facility operators.
・Founded in 1987 as an animation production company (IG Tatsunoko). Under its umbrella are animation production companies like Production I.G., Wit Studio, and Signal MD, as well as hit productions like “Attack on Titan”.
・For 1Q (Jun-Aug) results of FY2021/5 announced on 9/10, net sales decreased by 42.9% to 1.127 billion yen compared to the same period the previous year, and operating income fell to minus 150.0 billion yen from a positive 171 million yen in the same period of the previous year. In addition to the growth in the copyright business, the publishing business was also strong due to demands for comic books as a result of stay-at-home routines, but the lack of major sales in the video production business had a negative impact on performance.
・For its full year plan, net sales is expected to increase by 6.2% to 9.621 billion yen compared to the previous year, and operating income to decrease by 15.6% to 238 million yen. The popular movie, “Fate/Grand Order,” which had been postponed due to the Covid-19 pandemic, will be released nationwide this December. The sequel will be released in the spring of 2021. Media mix development linked with smartphone apps is also going well. It is expected to contribute to full-year results, including the demand for e-comics from those staying at home. Copyright business, such as design cans for “Attack on Titan”, is also strong.
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