The Positives
+ Healthy gross margins. Gross margin was maintained at 28.9%, higher than our modelled 25.8% and 4Q22’s 25.9%. A combination of higher prices in June 2022 and packaging changes helped support margins. In early September, the US operations underwent their third round of phased price increases since May 2021.
+ Joint venture returning to profitability. The joint venture in India turned around from a US$0.6mn loss to a US$0.7mn profit. Earnings benefited from 19% YoY growth in revenue together with margin improvement. India has discontinued fresh business and a greater focus on B2B sales. There have also been management changes.
The Negatives
– One-off refinancing cost. In May 2022, Del Monte refinanced the US$500mn 11.875% p.a. 2025 high yield senior secured note with a US$600mn 7-year Term Loan facility. The interest on the loan is SOFR plus 4.25% or 6.45% currently. The early redemption incurred a US$71.9mn one-off cost (or US$50.2mn post-tax and minority interest). Current savings on the refinancing are around US$27mn p.a.
– Sluggish revenue. Revenue growth decelerated to a negative 1.2% YoY in 1Q23e to US$456mn. It is a major deceleration from the 14% YoY growth in 4Q22. The US growth rate slowed to 1.5% (4Q22: +25% YoY). We believe there was a general de-stocking exercise by US retailers in the quarter (Figure 3). The Philippines faced several hiccups during the quarter. There was a change in the distributor; de-loading of inventory in May and June; consumers shifting away from discretionary; and some market share loss in ready-to-drink juice to cheaper PET bottled juices. Another headwind was the 8% decline in the Philippine peso.
Outlook
We expect a healthy recovery in the coming quarters.
Paul has 20 years of experience as a fund manager and sell-side analyst. During his time as fund manager, he has managed multiple funds and mandates including capital guaranteed, dividend income, renewable energy, single country and regionally focused funds.
He graduated from Monash University and had completed both his Chartered Financial Analyst and Australian CPA programme.