The outlook is positive. Earnings growth in the pipeline to come from the Jurong Island Container Depot (JICD) project and to a lesser extent, the student hostel at 362 Holland Road. As described in our previous report, it is inevitable that Cogent becomes consolidated as a subsidiary of COSCO SHIPPING International (Singapore) Co. Ltd. (COSCO). Thereafter, potentially benefiting from COSCO’s intention to develop Cogent into a regional logistics player.
Reject the Offer; take partial profit and hold out for a failed delisting
We reiterate our $1.12 valuation for Cogent, which is 10% higher than the Offer Price. As outlined in our previous report, the Offer Price of $1.02 is uncompelling, in our view. The Offer Price for Cogent is only 14.9x price-to-trailing-earnings, whereas the Offer Price for arguably Cogent’s closest peer, Poh Tiong Choon Logistics Ltd, was at a much higher price-to-trailing-earnings multiple of 23.0x. Our recommendation remains unchanged – minority shareholders should take partial profit to avoid tying up capital while the Offer remains open and to Reject the Offer.
The remaining capital invested in Cogent will resemble a call option. If the delisting is successful, minority shareholders will receive $1.02 anyway. If the delisting fails, minority shareholders will remain shareholders of Cogent, a listed-subsidiary of COSCO.