The Positives
+ Resilient broadband growth. Broadband subscriber net adds were 9,000 in 2Q21, the highest on record. Attractive pricing plus partnerships with various mobile operators helped.
+ Capex structurally lower. Capex trended at 25-30% of revenue from 2015 to 2017. 1H21 capex declined to a low of 11% of revenue. Investments in fibre have peaked and capacity is sufficient to meet current growth in broadband subscribers and future 5G data backhaul requirements.
The Negative
– Cable TV still declining. Cable TV revenue fell 3% YoY to S$56.7mn The decline was evenly spread between subscriptions and non-subscriptions. Cable TV subscribers are on a secular decline due to piracy and over-the-top TV. Broadband will be key to revenue sustainability.
Outlook
Expect stable operations. Group revenue is dependent on broadband to stem the decline in cable TV. Adjusted FCF remains strong at S$82mn, far exceeding its S$18mn dividends. FY22e dividends will be guided in 3Q21 results.
Maintain BUY and target price of S$0.15
Current yield of 7.6% is well-covered by healthy cash flows. Catalysts are expected from 5G data backhaul, though the timing is unclear as mobile operators have been prudent on spending.
Paul has 20 years of experience as a fund manager and sell-side analyst. During his time as fund manager, he has managed multiple funds and mandates including capital guaranteed, dividend income, renewable energy, single country and regionally focused funds.
He graduated from Monash University and had completed both his Chartered Financial Analyst and Australian CPA programme.