The Positives
+ $843mn in cash and credit facilities sufficient to cover c.2 years of fixed cost, comprising $620mn in cash & committed credit facilities, $163mn in cash proceeds from divestment of Somerset Liang Court received in July 2020 and $60mn uncommitted credit facility secured in July 2020. We note that ART’s interest coverage ratio deteriorated QoQ from 5.1x to 3.6x, however the cash and credit facilities in place will help to weather this period of depressed earnings.
+ Alternative sources of revenue to help fill occupancy (1H20: c.50%, 1Q20: c.40%). International travel bans are still largely in place. However, ART has been able to tap into alternative sources of revenue such as government bookings as quarantine facilities (SG) and temporary facilities for healthcare workers and COVID responders (US). Figure 2 summarises sources of alternative revenue. ART may benefit from the lifting of domestic travel restrictions in certain countries and the respective government initiatives to spur domestic travel.
The Negatives
– 1H20 RevPAR fell 52% YoY; 12 properties remain closed, comprising 11 properties in France (ML), 6 in Japan (2 ML, 2 MC), and 1 each in Belgium (MGMGI), Spain (MCMGI) and South Korea (ML). Some of the properties were mandated to close by the government and others were close due to soft demand (Paris) or to optimise resources. RevPAR for all countries deteriorated further (Figure 1) due to lower occupancies (1H20: 50% vs 1H19: 80%) and room rates, except for SG, which improved 5ppts from -30% to -25%, largely due to block bookings by the government.
– Erosion of “stable” revenues as 4 French ML and 3 UK MCMGI leases were renewed on variable terms. ART extended 7 expiring leases with the sponsor, albeit on variable terms. 4 expired French master leases extended on variable rent terms for 1 year w.e.f. 25 March 2020 and 3 expired UK MCMGI converted to management contracts for 1 year w.e.f. 1 May 2020. In 1H20, ART received income top-up of GBP1.0mn for the MCMGIs in UK.
Outlook
WBF Hotels & Resorts (WBF), the master lessee in 3 Japan properties, has filed for civil rehabilitation (i.e. bankruptcy) on 27 April 2020. These 3 properties are located in Osaka (of which 2 are closed) and make up c.1.8% of ART’s valuation. They would have contributed S$6.7mn in rent on a full-year basis. WBF has paid rent up till April 2020 and 3 months’ worth of security deposits have been used to offset rent until July. WBF is Japanese owner-operator, with 15 properties on their books and managed 30 properties. ART is in discussions with WBF, Sponsor The Ascott Limited (TAL) and other operators, to take over operations, if necessary. TAL operates 8 SRs in Japan, 4 of which are under ART’s portfolio.
Apart from the 3 WBF ML, 10 other assets are master leased to third party operators.
Unlocking value through divestments
In July 2020, ART entered into two conditional agreements to divest Ascott Guangzhou (AGZ) and Citadines Didot Montparnasse Paris (CDMP) for c.S$191.4 million, at 52% and 69% above their respective book values. ART is expected to realise total estimated net gains of about S$23.2 million upon the completion of both transactions. The exit yields for AGZ and CDMP were 3% and 4% respectively. Including these transactions, ART will have
Maintain BUY with a lower target price of $1.08 (prev. $1.25).
We lower revenue to reflect a slower recovery of international travel, the extension of 4 French ML and 3 UK MCMGI on variable terms, and the sale of AGZ and CDMP. FY20e DPU is lowered 21.7% and represents a DPU yield of 6.0%.
Important Information
This report is prepared and/or distributed by Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd ("Phillip Securities Research"), which is a holder of a financial adviser’s licence under the Financial Advisers Act, Chapter 110 in Singapore.
By receiving or reading this report, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. Any failure to comply with these terms and limitations may constitute a violation of law. This report has been provided to you for personal use only and shall not be reproduced, distributed or published by you in whole or in part, for any purpose. If you have received this report by mistake, please delete or destroy it, and notify the sender immediately.
The information and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively, the “Research”) contained in this report has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities Research believes to be reliable. However, Phillip Securities Research does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied that such information or Research is accurate, complete or appropriate or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this report is subject to change, and Phillip Securities Research shall not have any responsibility to maintain or update the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith.
Any opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, valuations and prices contained in this report are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. Past performance of any product referred to in this report is not indicative of future results.
This report does not constitute, and should not be used as a substitute for, tax, legal or investment advice. This report should not be relied upon exclusively or as authoritative, without further being subject to the recipient’s own independent verification and exercise of judgment. The fact that this report has been made available constitutes neither a recommendation to enter into a particular transaction, nor a representation that any product described in this report is suitable or appropriate for the recipient. Recipients should be aware that many of the products, which may be described in this report involve significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, and that any decision to enter into transactions involving such products should not be made, unless all such risks are understood and an independent determination has been made that such transactions would be appropriate. Any discussion of the risks contained herein with respect to any product should not be considered to be a disclosure of all risks or a complete discussion of such risks.
Nothing in this report shall be construed to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any product. Any decision to purchase any product mentioned in this report should take into account existing public information, including any registered prospectus in respect of such product.
Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may provide an array of financial services to a large number of corporations in Singapore and worldwide, including but not limited to commercial / investment banking activities (including sponsorship, financial advisory or underwriting activities), brokerage or securities trading activities. Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have participated in or invested in transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this report, and may have performed services for or solicited business from such issuers. Additionally, Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have provided advice or investment services to such companies and investments or related investments, as may be mentioned in this report.
Phillip Securities Research or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report may, from time to time maintain a long or short position in securities referred to herein, or in related futures or options, purchase or sell, make a market in, or engage in any other transaction involving such securities, and earn brokerage or other compensation in respect of the foregoing. Investments will be denominated in various currencies including US dollars and Euro and thus will be subject to any fluctuation in exchange rates between US dollars and Euro or foreign currencies and the currency of your own jurisdiction. Such fluctuations may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income return of the investment.
To the extent permitted by law, Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may at any time engage in any of the above activities as set out above or otherwise hold an interest, whether material or not, in respect of companies and investments or related investments, which may be mentioned in this report. Accordingly, information may be available to Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, which is not reflected in this report, and Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may, to the extent permitted by law, have acted upon or used the information prior to or immediately following its publication. Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have issued other material that is inconsistent with, or reach different conclusions from, the contents of this report.
The information, tools and material presented herein are not directed, intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to the applicable law or regulation or which would subject Phillip Securities Research to any registration or licensing or other requirement, or penalty for contravention of such requirements within such jurisdiction.
This report is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The products mentioned in this report may not be suitable for all investors and a person receiving or reading this report should seek advice from a professional and financial adviser regarding the legal, business, financial, tax and other aspects including the suitability of such products, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of that person, before making a commitment to invest in any of such products.
This report is not intended for distribution, publication to or use by any person in any jurisdiction outside of Singapore or any other jurisdiction as Phillip Securities Research may determine in its absolute discretion.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES FOR INCLUDED RESEARCH ANALYSES OR REPORTS OF FOREIGN RESEARCH HOUSE
Where the report contains research analyses or reports from a foreign research house, please note:
