The Positives
+ Turning more bullish on its Data Centre business. AMD saw positive DC growth (38% YoY) exiting FY23, setting quarterly and annual revenue records for its AI-related GPUs (MI300) and CPUs (4th Gen EPYC), as demand from Cloud hyperscalers continued to accelerate. AMD also gained server CPU share (from Intel) in 4Q23. MI300X revenue tracked above AMD’s US$400mn guidance, with management raising FY24e MI300X revenue guidance from US$2bn to >US$3.5bn, citing stronger customer commitments from AI customers. AMD expects 1Q24e DC revenue to be flat QoQ, with ~10% decline in seasonality offset by a stronger GPU ramp.
+ Margin tailwinds moving into FY24. AMD is guiding 52% adj. gross margins in 1Q24e, a 120bps sequential increase vs 4Q23, as the company benefits from a larger mix of higher-margin DC products. We expect margins to improve sequentially across FY24e due to: 1) faster growth of DC products vs other products; 2) expected recovery of the Embedded segment in 2H24e; 3) working through its initial AI accelerator (Instinct) ramp.
The Negative
– Weak outlook for Gaming and Embedded to remain a drag. Management’s outlook for its Gaming and Embedded segments remained very weak, with most customers still working down their inventory levels. On a sequential basis, AMD expects Gaming revenue to decline >30% in 1Q24e due to excess component inventory of its Console customers, and with Embedded declining ~8-10%. This translates to a YoY decline in Embedded and a significant double-digit decline in Gaming. Gaming and Embedded contributed ~40% of total revenue in 4Q23.
Jonathan covers the US technology sector focusing on internet companies. Formerly a national and professional athlete, he graduated from the University of Oregon with a Bachelor’s Degree in Social Sciences.