投資概要
去年 H2 盈利略低于預期,毛利率因一次性因素受損
2019 年敏實集團的營業額錄得 131.98 億,同比增長 5.1%,主要來自於海外市場特別
是歐洲和北美市場的業務增長;股東應占淨利潤 16.9 億,同比增長 1.8%;每股基本盈
利 1.472 元,擬派息 0.588 元,派息率保持在接近 40%的穩定高位。
盈利較我們預計的低約 6%,主要由于下半年毛利率因以下因素錄得五年低點
30.19%,環比和同比分別减少 2.23 和 0.58 個百分點:
1)下半年德國工廠的新産品交付未達到預期,導致人力成本等上升較大;
2)淮安新産能投産,仍處于爬坡期,産能利用率不足,折舊成本較高;
3)儘管轉移了部分業務至泰國生産,中美貿易戰簽訂的新關稅仍影響了公司約 7%的
業務量,給毛利率造成大約 0.6 個百分點的拖累。
目前德國工廠的運營較去年下半年有所改善,淮安工廠已經好轉達至預期。
歐洲訂單穩定增長,研管費用率有所增加
受益于寶馬、奧迪、戴姆勒、通用等客戶的訂單增長,公司的海外業務收入同比增
13.8%;同時,産品結構持續優化,鋁産品保持兩位數增長。都是公司整體營業額在全
球車市趨冷環境下逆勢增長的主導因素。歐洲市場占比由往年的 15.1%提高到 16.9%,
北美市場的占比由 18.9%上升至 20.9%。
管理費用率同比提升 0.5 個百分點至 7.9%,主要是員工工資提高和新工廠人員增加影
響;研發費用同比增長 11.0%至 6.6 億元,研發費用率同比提升 0.3 個百分點至 5.0%,
主要由于引進高級研發人才與推進新産品研發。公司表示今年將嚴格控制銷管費用至
合理水平,同時鋁材等原材料價格保持低位將有助于改善盈利能力。
去年公司的資本開支由 22.3 億下降至 16.7 億,經營活動現金流淨額爲 23.8 億,自由
現金流由負轉正。
疫情影響逐漸减弱, 未來成長可期
隨著疫情的减弱以及各地陸續復工放鬆管制,敏實國內的業務已于 4 月恢復至正常水
平;海外市場稍滯後,歐洲工廠從 4 月底 5 月初,美國工廠于 5 月中旬開始陸續復
工,預計 6-7 月恢復至正常。
敏實一直致力于拓寬産品綫和優化産品結構,近年來更是加大了包括鋁電池盒、鋁門
框、ACC 標牌等新能源車領域的拓展。其中鋁電池盒業務落地最快,已進入歐系、日
系、美系以及中系等多家主機廠全球電動車平臺的供應商體系,獲得多個全球項目訂
單,亦因此躍居全球最大的鋁電池盒供應商之一。此外,鋁門框陸續達到量産水準,
智能外飾産品也進展順利,獲得多個項目定點,新承接到多家日系及歐系客戶的 ACC
産品訂單。今年截止目前公司新增訂單 46-47 億,維持全年新增 75-80 億訂單的目標。
我們認爲,雖然疫情對上半年汽車行業帶來挑戰, 但相信公司手握充足訂單,客戶結
構優質,新品類逐步進入量産,海外業務提升空間廣闊,都將是疫情過後業績强勁反
彈的保障因素。
從全球各大車企的新能源戰略規劃來看,大部分車企將 2020 年或 2025 年定爲新能源
規劃“關鍵年”。隨著海外汽車電動化的加速,公司有望迎來新增訂單的爆發期。
估值與投資建議
考慮到今年疫情影響,我們下調公司 2020/2021 年每股盈利預估至 1.29/1.73 元人民
幣,幷調整公司目標價至 27.45 港元,對應 20/21 年 PE/PB 分別爲 19.2/14.3 和 1.8/1.7
倍,增持評級。(現價截至 6 月 8 日)
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Bachelor Degree in Tongji University of Engineering; Master Degree in East China Normal University of finance. Currently covering the automobile and air sectors. She has years of experience in investment research and is good at combining analysis for the companies with industry prospects.