投資概要
三季報業績超預期 福耀玻璃三季報顯示,前三季度公司實現營業收入137.8億元,同比下滑11.9%;實現歸母淨利潤17.2億元,同比下滑26.6%。其中,第三季度營業收入錄得56.6億元,同比增長5.8%;歸母淨利潤7.6億元,同比下滑9.8%。 前三季度匯兌方面産生損失1.8億元,去年同期爲匯兌收益2.54億元,第三季度匯兌損失約3.1億元(去年同期爲匯兌收益2.2億元),剔除匯兌影響,第三季度公司實際盈利同比大增56.7%,好于市場預期,前三季度業績僅僅下滑0.4%。 毛利率大幅抬升,玻璃龍頭地位穩固 得益于SAM减虧,産能利用率提升,浮法玻璃漲價且外售减少,以及産品結構提升,第三季度公司毛利率同比/環比分別大幅提升4.1/4.3pct,至41.4%,爲2019年以來單季最高。同時公司加强費用管控但保持研發投入,銷售費用率6.9%(同比-0.1pct),管理費用率9.4%(同比-0.4pct),研發費用率4.1%(同比+0.5pct)。由于匯兌損失同比增加5.3億,財務費用率5.4%(同比+8.7pct)。 前三季度公司國內汽車玻璃收入下滑程度好于行業,反映公司國內市場份額提升。海外疫情導致競爭對手受衝擊程度更爲嚴重,公司有望借助復工優勢擴大海外市場份額,進一步加强全球玻璃龍頭地位。 公司的産品升級路徑明確,前三季度高附加值産品如隔熱、抬頭顯示、可調光玻璃的占比較去年同期提升約2.6個百分點。隨著HUD玻璃、天幕玻璃開始引領汽車配置提升潮流,智能玻璃應用愈發公司的産品結構及市場覆蓋度將迎來更廣闊的發展空間,推動後續業績可持續增長。 海外業務觸底反彈,內飾業務靜待盈利 福耀玻璃的兩大海外業務改善明顯,美國工廠第三季度實現了扭虧爲盈,盈利1370萬美元,預計四季度盈利能力將進一步爬升;德國的SAM工廠减虧,前三個季度分別虧損1222萬/1395萬/570萬歐元,第三季度大幅環比减虧,預計德國工廠即將接近盈虧平衡。飾條業務的單車配套價值是汽車玻璃的2-3倍,我們認爲,公司2019年收購的SAM經過一年半的整合完畢後,未來的業績彈性巨大。 投資建議 我們預計公司2020/2021/2022年的淨利潤分別爲27/36/46億元。考慮到穩固的龍頭地位,和持續高分紅率,給予公司目標價45港元,對應2020/2021年36/26/21倍預計市盈率,上調至“買入”評級。(現價截至11月19日)
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Bachelor Degree in Tongji University of Engineering; Master Degree in East China Normal University of finance. Currently covering the automobile and air sectors. She has years of experience in investment research and is good at combining analysis for the companies with industry prospects.