+ Core recurrent residential revenue expanding. Residential fibre connections rose by 7.5% YoY to 1.42mn. However, the quarterly net addition of 6.27k fibre connection was the weakest since listing – this is within expectations. Our forecast of 25k net connections for FY21e is in-line with household formations in Singapore.
+ Full year distributions rose 3.5% YoY. The full-year distribution per unit was 5.05 cents, a jump of 3.5% YoY. This payout of S$197mn for FY20 is backed by free cash-flows of S$187mn. Capital expenditure for FY21e is expected to be relatively stable.
– Ducts and manhole the weak spot. Ducts and manhole is weakest revenue segment for NetLink. The decline will be structural, due to fewer copper cables installed by Singtel.
NetLink has been relatively unaffected by the outbreak. Understandably, there will be some delays in construction and installation. Segments at risk are the installation and diversion revenue, as well as the new residential connections. However, it is worth noting that these segments only account for 8% and <2% of revenue, and the impact will be temporary. Any credit risk on residential customer are borne by the telcos.
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We find NetLink attractive due to the recurrent revenues from the monthly subscription for the residential connections, plus contracted revenues from Singtel. We raised our target price from S$0.99 to S$1.05 as we roll-over the terminal values for NetLink.