李寧 (2331 HK) 乘國潮興起之風,昔日王者再續前行 December 17, 2020 543

PSR Recommendation: ACCUMULATE Status: Initiation
Target Price: HKDHKD48.55

投資概要
李寧公司成立於1990年,至今30年的歷史,由國內著名體操運動員李寧創立。在三十年的歷史中品牌經歷崛起、嶺峰、調整再重新出發,在近年乘著運動時尚和國潮風的興起成功完成品牌升級,公司在2004年在香港主板上巿,在運動用品行業快速發展下,公司的積極擴張渠道策略使其迅速成長。在經過三年的改革後,公司的收入重回正增長,公司在2019年錄得人民幣138.70億元的收入,在過去6年由2013年的58.2億元,增加約138.15%。
” 單品牌、多品類、多渠道” 的發展策略
2018年,李寧提出” 單品牌、多品類、多渠道” 的發展策略,在”李寧” 品牌上延伸出李寧、中國李寧和李寧Young等產品線,以覆蓋不同定位,佔總營收接近99%。除了核心品牌多,公司亦透過自有、特許或與第三方合資/聯營其他品牌體育產品,包括紅雙喜乒乓球、AIGLE戶外運動用品、DANSKIN舞蹈和瑜伽時尚健身產品及Kason羽毛球產品。
核心品類佔公司大部分收入
公司產品種類覆蓋五大核心品類,包括籃球、跑步、訓練、羽毛球及運動時尚。在產品上一方面兼顧品牌運動基因同時增強產品的時尚文化屬性。在核心品類中,羽毛球業務主要通專業渠道銷售,而其他則以零售為主要銷售渠道。從零售流水而言,公司核心品類的零售流水在1H20佔整體零售流水的98%。在持續投放資源到核心品類產品時,公司能更有效提高產品競爭力,在趨向同質化的巿場上形成產品差異。
把握豐富國內贊助資源
公司在品牌宣傳上,和安踏一樣,公司在國內掌握豐富的國內運動賽事贊助資源,其簽約國家隊包括四隊國家隊” 夢之隊” —乒乓球隊、跳水隊、體操隊和射擊隊。公司亦與NBA球星湯普森‧韋德合作,推出韋德之道系列籃球鞋,為公司在籃球鞋產品中的高端系列。
乘國潮之風,品牌形象提升
2018年2月份,在紐約時裝周上,天貓與美國時裝設計師協會合作舉辦” 天貓中國日” ,而當中李寧亦成為第一個登陸紐約時裝周中國體育用品牌。一夜間,中國李寧成為了網上社交媒體的熱門關鍵字。中國李寧首次出現於2017年10月底,在官方的微信公眾號中提出。作為公司在運動時尚系列上的部署,強調為”李寧原創代言”、” 做中國的李寧” 。在此之前,國潮一直由小眾設計師品牌所推動,由李寧加入後,掀起國潮新風潮。
估值與投資建議
公司在在近年完成多項改革,在更高效的營運能力和在國潮興起的背景下,我們預期公司在FY20/FY21/FY22的收入增長為5%/25%/25%。公司在疫情期間直營業務的影響較大,但預期整體全年仍能錄得中單位數的正增長。隨著公司直營比例的上升和品牌形象建立,預期公司的毛利率亦將按年上升,在FY20/FY21/FY22的毛利率預測為50%/51%/52%。公司的巿盈率在行業中屬於較高水平,主要由於巿場對公司未來增長抱有較高的期望,而品牌形象亦為其提供溢價,對標國際運動品牌。考慮公司品牌有巨大增長潛力,未來收入增長潛力巨大,我們預計公司FY20/FY21/FY22年的每股盈利為人民幣66.58/82.54/107.58仙。給予目標價48.55港元對應2020/2021/2022年61.98/50.00/38.36倍預期巿盈率,對應現時價格,給予增持評級。
(現價截至12月14日)

Important Information

This report is prepared and/or distributed by Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd ("Phillip Securities Research"), which is a holder of a financial adviser’s licence under the Financial Advisers Act, Chapter 110 in Singapore.

By receiving or reading this report, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. Any failure to comply with these terms and limitations may constitute a violation of law. This report has been provided to you for personal use only and shall not be reproduced, distributed or published by you in whole or in part, for any purpose. If you have received this report by mistake, please delete or destroy it, and notify the sender immediately.

The information and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively, the “Research”) contained in this report has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities Research believes to be reliable. However, Phillip Securities Research does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied that such information or Research is accurate, complete or appropriate or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this report is subject to change, and Phillip Securities Research shall not have any responsibility to maintain or update the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith.

Any opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, valuations and prices contained in this report are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. Past performance of any product referred to in this report is not indicative of future results.

This report does not constitute, and should not be used as a substitute for, tax, legal or investment advice. This report should not be relied upon exclusively or as authoritative, without further being subject to the recipient’s own independent verification and exercise of judgment. The fact that this report has been made available constitutes neither a recommendation to enter into a particular transaction, nor a representation that any product described in this report is suitable or appropriate for the recipient. Recipients should be aware that many of the products, which may be described in this report involve significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, and that any decision to enter into transactions involving such products should not be made, unless all such risks are understood and an independent determination has been made that such transactions would be appropriate. Any discussion of the risks contained herein with respect to any product should not be considered to be a disclosure of all risks or a complete discussion of such risks.

Nothing in this report shall be construed to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any product. Any decision to purchase any product mentioned in this report should take into account existing public information, including any registered prospectus in respect of such product.

Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may provide an array of financial services to a large number of corporations in Singapore and worldwide, including but not limited to commercial / investment banking activities (including sponsorship, financial advisory or underwriting activities), brokerage or securities trading activities. Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have participated in or invested in transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this report, and may have performed services for or solicited business from such issuers. Additionally, Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have provided advice or investment services to such companies and investments or related investments, as may be mentioned in this report.

Phillip Securities Research or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report may, from time to time maintain a long or short position in securities referred to herein, or in related futures or options, purchase or sell, make a market in, or engage in any other transaction involving such securities, and earn brokerage or other compensation in respect of the foregoing. Investments will be denominated in various currencies including US dollars and Euro and thus will be subject to any fluctuation in exchange rates between US dollars and Euro or foreign currencies and the currency of your own jurisdiction. Such fluctuations may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income return of the investment.

To the extent permitted by law, Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may at any time engage in any of the above activities as set out above or otherwise hold an interest, whether material or not, in respect of companies and investments or related investments, which may be mentioned in this report. Accordingly, information may be available to Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, which is not reflected in this report, and Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may, to the extent permitted by law, have acted upon or used the information prior to or immediately following its publication. Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have issued other material that is inconsistent with, or reach different conclusions from, the contents of this report.

The information, tools and material presented herein are not directed, intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to the applicable law or regulation or which would subject Phillip Securities Research to any registration or licensing or other requirement, or penalty for contravention of such requirements within such jurisdiction.

This report is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The products mentioned in this report may not be suitable for all investors and a person receiving or reading this report should seek advice from a professional and financial adviser regarding the legal, business, financial, tax and other aspects including the suitability of such products, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of that person, before making a commitment to invest in any of such products.

This report is not intended for distribution, publication to or use by any person in any jurisdiction outside of Singapore or any other jurisdiction as Phillip Securities Research may determine in its absolute discretion.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES FOR INCLUDED RESEARCH ANALYSES OR REPORTS OF FOREIGN RESEARCH HOUSE

Where the report contains research analyses or reports from a foreign research house, please note:

  1. recipients of the analyses or reports are to contact Phillip Securities Research (and not the relevant foreign research house) in Singapore at 250 North Bridge Road, #06-00 Raffles City Tower, Singapore 179101, telephone number +65 6533 6001, in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, the analyses or reports; and
  2. to the extent that the analyses or reports are delivered to and intended to be received by any person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor, Phillip Securities Research accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the analyses or reports.

About the author

Profile photo of Timothy Chong

Timothy Chong
Analyst
Research

Timothy Chong received Bachelor’s Degree with first class honor in Banking and Finance from University of Leicester. He is currently studying Master of investment management in Hong Kong Polytechnic University. Before joining Phillip Securities, Timothy worked at BOCOM international and he is equipped with years of experience in the capital market. Timothy is now a licensed research analyst at Phillip Securities and covers Consumer / Property Management sectors.

Get access to all the latest market news, reports, technical analysis
by signing up for a free account today!