投資概要
特步國際主品牌在第三季度的零售銷售額錄得中單位數增長,折扣水平按季持平,較正常為高。庫存水平按季改善,零售存貨週轉期縮短至約5個月。基於第三季的營運數據,我們對估值模型作出調整,下調FY20E/FY21E每股盈利,分別為人民幣19.11/29.74仙。考慮公司其他品牌發展和國家政策配合發展,上調公司12個月目標價至3.68元。
主品牌錄得正增長,表現較同行佳
特步在10月16日公布特步主品牌在Q3的營運數據,主品牌零售銷售增長較去年同期錄得中單位數增長,符合我們預期。銷售表現按季度相比持續改善,在1Q20/2Q20特步主品牌較去年同期增長為 負20%-25%/負低單位數,重回正增長軌道,第三季表現亦較同行為佳。按第三季月份細分而言,主品牌在7月和8月的銷售與去年同期基本持平/低單位數增長,銷售額在9月份錄得顯著改善,估算約低雙位數增長。而按渠道而言,預期線上線下同錄得正增長,而線上銷售增長較線下表現為佳。
存貨水平按季度持續改善,3Q20的零售存貨周轉期約5個月,較2Q20的5 – 5.5個月有所改善,當前公司的主要目標仍為減低庫存水平。在折扣水平方面,主品牌的零售折扣水平按季度持平,維持在65折至7折,較正常水平的75折至8折為高,預期需於1Q21才能回復正常水平。在今年Q1與代理商提出以Q3的貨品更換Q1的貨品以舒緩代理商的庫存壓力,預期公司將在11月配合”雙11”等線上銷售推廣活動進行促銷。
其他品牌海外業務受影響
受疫情影響,公司亦調低K-Swiss和Palladium 的全年銷售目標,由原來的約人民幣9億元下調至約人民幣8億元,主要由於歐美疫情嚴重,品牌的海外業務受影響較預期大。預期品牌將延後至明年開始錄得利潤。而Saucony和Merrell 則預期全年錄得5千萬的營收。全年開店目標不變,30-50家Saucony和Merrell;30-50家Palladium。
估值模型更新
公司主品牌第三季零售銷售額符合我們預期,但折扣水平未有改善,因此,我們下調特步主品牌的全年營收預期,由原來預期與去年同期持平下調至負5%。而毛利率方面,主品牌毛利率亦由原先的40%下調1 pct至39%,主要原因包括1) 折扣水平仍然偏高 2) 主品牌線上銷售比例增加,而線上銷售的定倍率較線下低 3) 童裝銷售佔比增加,而童裝的毛利率較低。
估值與投資建議
疫情對公司的影響持續,但主品牌銷量和庫存水平按季度持續改善,較其他同行表現較佳,其他品牌因海外業務影響,預期營收減少和全年錄得虧損,全年開店目標維持。四個新品牌在大中華地區的潛在增長空間巨大,未來公司以直營形式發展新品牌,有望令公司現時的毛利率提升,考慮公司新增的品牌現時的毛利率較低,未來以直營模式能有效提升新品牌的毛利率至50-60%,未來增長潛力巨大。預計公司FY20E/FY21E的EPS為人民幣17.86/27.79仙,給予公司目標價3.43元,對應FY20E/FY21E 巿盈率為17.09x/11.00x。
(現價截至11月9日)
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Timothy Chong received Bachelor’s Degree with first class honor in Banking and Finance from University of Leicester. He is currently studying Master of investment management in Hong Kong Polytechnic University. Before joining Phillip Securities, Timothy worked at BOCOM international and he is equipped with years of experience in the capital market. Timothy is now a licensed research analyst at Phillip Securities and covers Consumer / Property Management sectors.