Roblox Corporation Well-positioned for growth March 10, 2021 1716

Key information

Roblox (RBLX) is an online gaming and game-creation platform. Developers and creators can create and publish their own game content on Roblox Studio. Other users access and play these games through Roblox Client applications. RBLX’s platform is powered by its in-house system, Roblox Cloud, backed by its own data centres. Based on a report by GameRefinery, a mobile gaming research firm, Roblox’s market share in US is estimated to be 4.85%.

Business

RBLX’s platform relies on user interactions and user-generated content for organic growth. Its community consisted of about 7mn active developers and 31.1mn daily active users (DAUs) as of September 2020.

Revenue sources. Almost all of its revenue is generated from sales of its digital in-game currency, Robux. This currency allows players to purchase virtual items or enhance their in-game experiences. Purchases can be one-off or made via monthly subscriptions, known as Roblox Premium (Figure 3). RBLX shares 26% of its sales with developers and pays 24% app-store fees. The remaining 50% is its share of revenue.

Other revenue streams are advertising, licensing and royalty fees from intellectual property (IP) rights, which are currently minimal.

DAU demographics. The majority or 33% of RBLX’s DAUs are from the US and Canada. About 54% of its DAUs are under the age of 12. The majority, or 72%, are engaged through mobile.

 

Highlights

  1. Expansion to China for growth. RBLX’s joint venture with Songhua, an affiliate of Tencent Holdings, has secured licences to launch RBLX’s gaming platform on both mobile and PCs in China. We believe RBLX’s expansion into China will mirror the success of Minecraft, a similar freemium gaming platform as RBLX. The Chinese version of Minecraft was launched in China in August 2017. It captured 100mn registered users in less than a year.

Based on previous statements by Steven Ma, Tencent’s Senior Vice-President, the joint venture is expected to attract 40-50mn users in China. This figure towers above RBLX’s current 31.1mn DAUs. Assuming an increase of 10mn DAUs in its first year in China, RBLX’s annual bookings – which are revenue plus the change in deferred revenue and other non-cash adjustments in a year– can potentially increase 34.9% YoY from 2020 levels. China is thus expected to provide a large boost to its sales.

  1. Potential revenue diversification. RBLX generates almost all of its revenue from sales of its digital in-game currency, Robux. About 52% of its 9M20 revenue was attributable to Robux sales through Apple’s App Store and Google’s Play Store. RBLX pays 30% of its in-app Robux sales to Apple and Google. This reduces its gross margins, which is likely to remain the case as it continues to shift to mobile distribution channels (Figure 4).

RBLX, however, has other potential monetisation channels which may generate higher margins. Its 150mn monthly active users can facilitate its expansion to advertising partnerships to tap its niche young user base. RBLX should also be able to leverage developers’ creations and license out more popular content to brands like Toys‘R’Us or Lego at its discretion under its Terms of Use.

  1. Content expansion beyond entertainment. The ease of use of Roblox Studio may help less IT-savvy developers develop content on RBLX’s platform for various purposes. RBLX’s collaboration in China will focus on providing its platform as a potential educational tool for science, technology, engineering and mathematics students. Its 3D spatial technology also allows for simple visualisation, which can be applied to business (Figure 5).
  2. Network effects and monetisation potential. Since 4Q19, growth in total hours engaged and bookings has outpaced growth in DAUs. This suggests higher engagement and spending per user. We believe RBLX is reaping the benefits of network effects, a situation where user-generated content attracts users to the platform which in turn provides incentives for more developers to create more content. The variety of content leads to more time spent on the platform and increases monetisation.

 

Important Information

This report is prepared and/or distributed by Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd ("Phillip Securities Research"), which is a holder of a financial adviser’s licence under the Financial Advisers Act, Chapter 110 in Singapore.

By receiving or reading this report, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. Any failure to comply with these terms and limitations may constitute a violation of law. This report has been provided to you for personal use only and shall not be reproduced, distributed or published by you in whole or in part, for any purpose. If you have received this report by mistake, please delete or destroy it, and notify the sender immediately.

The information and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively, the “Research”) contained in this report has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities Research believes to be reliable. However, Phillip Securities Research does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied that such information or Research is accurate, complete or appropriate or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this report is subject to change, and Phillip Securities Research shall not have any responsibility to maintain or update the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith.

Any opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, valuations and prices contained in this report are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. Past performance of any product referred to in this report is not indicative of future results.

This report does not constitute, and should not be used as a substitute for, tax, legal or investment advice. This report should not be relied upon exclusively or as authoritative, without further being subject to the recipient’s own independent verification and exercise of judgment. The fact that this report has been made available constitutes neither a recommendation to enter into a particular transaction, nor a representation that any product described in this report is suitable or appropriate for the recipient. Recipients should be aware that many of the products, which may be described in this report involve significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, and that any decision to enter into transactions involving such products should not be made, unless all such risks are understood and an independent determination has been made that such transactions would be appropriate. Any discussion of the risks contained herein with respect to any product should not be considered to be a disclosure of all risks or a complete discussion of such risks.

Nothing in this report shall be construed to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any product. Any decision to purchase any product mentioned in this report should take into account existing public information, including any registered prospectus in respect of such product.

Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may provide an array of financial services to a large number of corporations in Singapore and worldwide, including but not limited to commercial / investment banking activities (including sponsorship, financial advisory or underwriting activities), brokerage or securities trading activities. Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have participated in or invested in transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this report, and may have performed services for or solicited business from such issuers. Additionally, Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have provided advice or investment services to such companies and investments or related investments, as may be mentioned in this report.

Phillip Securities Research or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report may, from time to time maintain a long or short position in securities referred to herein, or in related futures or options, purchase or sell, make a market in, or engage in any other transaction involving such securities, and earn brokerage or other compensation in respect of the foregoing. Investments will be denominated in various currencies including US dollars and Euro and thus will be subject to any fluctuation in exchange rates between US dollars and Euro or foreign currencies and the currency of your own jurisdiction. Such fluctuations may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income return of the investment.

To the extent permitted by law, Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may at any time engage in any of the above activities as set out above or otherwise hold an interest, whether material or not, in respect of companies and investments or related investments, which may be mentioned in this report. Accordingly, information may be available to Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, which is not reflected in this report, and Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may, to the extent permitted by law, have acted upon or used the information prior to or immediately following its publication. Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have issued other material that is inconsistent with, or reach different conclusions from, the contents of this report.

The information, tools and material presented herein are not directed, intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to the applicable law or regulation or which would subject Phillip Securities Research to any registration or licensing or other requirement, or penalty for contravention of such requirements within such jurisdiction.

This report is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The products mentioned in this report may not be suitable for all investors and a person receiving or reading this report should seek advice from a professional and financial adviser regarding the legal, business, financial, tax and other aspects including the suitability of such products, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of that person, before making a commitment to invest in any of such products.

This report is not intended for distribution, publication to or use by any person in any jurisdiction outside of Singapore or any other jurisdiction as Phillip Securities Research may determine in its absolute discretion.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES FOR INCLUDED RESEARCH ANALYSES OR REPORTS OF FOREIGN RESEARCH HOUSE

Where the report contains research analyses or reports from a foreign research house, please note:

  1. recipients of the analyses or reports are to contact Phillip Securities Research (and not the relevant foreign research house) in Singapore at 250 North Bridge Road, #06-00 Raffles City Tower, Singapore 179101, telephone number +65 6533 6001, in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, the analyses or reports; and
  2. to the extent that the analyses or reports are delivered to and intended to be received by any person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor, Phillip Securities Research accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the analyses or reports.
Subscribe
Notify of
guest
0 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

Get access to all the latest market news, reports, technical analysis
by signing up for a free account today!