The Positives
+ Pandemic services driving growth. 2H21 revenue jumped 54% YoY. Driving growth were COVID-19-related services such as vaccinations, PCR swab tests and management of community treatment facilities. Contribution from COVID-19 services was not disclosed. However, peer hospitals’ contribution from COVID-19-related services is around 20%. Another revenue driver was China, up 33%, but contribution was only 7% of 2H21 revenue.
+ Record cash flows. Free cash flow generated during the year was a record S$110mn (FY20: +S$74.3mn). Net cash improved to S$91mn from S$32mn a year ago. A dividend of 2.8 cents is a 60% payout ratio or S$50mn cash outlay.
The Negative
– Rising staff cost. Staff cost jumped 32% YoY in 2H21 to S$204mn. Staff cost as a percentage of sales in FY21 is around 53.5%. This compares with the pre-pandemic level of 51%. We expect staff costs to remain elevated due to labour shortage and tougher operating conditions. Other cost pressures are from personal protective equipment (such as masks, gowns, etc). The impact of rising electricity costs is less significant. There is a need to raise prices by 3-5% to offset some of these higher costs.
Outlook
We expect earnings to be weaker in FY22e:
Maintain NEUTRAL with a lower TP of S$1.27, from S$1.35
Our FY22e earnings are cut by 8% and our DCF valuation WACC is nudged up from 6.8% to 7.1% due to a higher risk-free rate assumption.
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Paul has 20 years of experience as a fund manager and sell-side analyst. During his time as fund manager, he has managed multiple funds and mandates including capital guaranteed, dividend income, renewable energy, single country and regionally focused funds.
He graduated from Monash University and had completed both his Chartered Financial Analyst and Australian CPA programme.
