The Positives
+ Higher contribution from retail and distribution. Revenue for this segment increased 14%, due to higher demand with the continued work-from-home arrangements. Segment profit declined 14% to US$804k.
The Negatives
– Manufacturing sales declined 21%. Manufacturing, which makes up 74% of 1H22 revenue, saw lower sales. This was due to the lockdowns in Vietnam and Malaysia which affected Koda’s manufacturing operations, which were suspended for approximately 3 months and 2 months respectively.
– Lower margins. Gross profit margins declined by 2.2 percentage points, as Koda continued to incur fixed operating expenses during temporary closure of their manufacturing facilities and higher raw material costs.
Outlook
US furniture imports. Being the biggest furniture exporter in the world, resumption of manufacturing operations in Vietnam lifted US furniture imports. The US accounts for 50% of Vietnam’s furniture exports. After three consecutive months of decline, US furniture imports in December 2021 increased 4.2% YoY to US$5.18bn. This figure was also 9.8% higher MoM.
Vietnam furniture exports. In 1H22, Covid-19 restrictions were imposed again to contain the spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant. Movement restrictions were subsequently eased. Since then, manufacturing operations in Vietnam have been gradually resuming. The value of furniture exports, excluding those of wood, have been recovering since November 2021 (Figure 1). Month on month, the value of furniture exports has been increasing at an average of 30% since October 2021.
Manufacturing. Koda’s two plants in Malaysia and Vietnam have resumed operations at 100% capacity since September and December 2021 respectively. We are expecting higher export sales in 2H22 as compared with 1H22, with the backlog of orders. The new sofa manufacturing line would also be a revenue contributor, which would take some time to ramp up. Within furniture, sofa manufacturing is the most straightforward.
The fire incident in Vietnam did not result in significant operational disruptions as the disrupted supply chain has since been managed by rearranging and rescheduling production of certain orders. The affected assets are also adequately insured.
Retail and distribution. Commune is on track to having 100 stores in China by end of 2022. Even though China is continuing with its “zero-Covid” plan which could weigh on domestic consumer spending, the emergence of various variants has shown that this plan is not sustainable in the long run.
Domestic retail spending on furniture in China in 2021 rose 4.3% to RMB166.7bn, albeit still far from the pre-COVID-19 level of RMB197bn in 2019. We believe subsequent re-opening will lead to strong demand recovery.
Maintain BUY with unchanged TP of $1.10.
Our FY22e revenue and earnings estimates remain unchanged. Catalysts are expected from higher export sales in 2H22 due to backlog of orders from 1H22, higher production capacity, new sofa manufacturing line and new Commune stores in China.
Important Information
This report is prepared and/or distributed by Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd ("Phillip Securities Research"), which is a holder of a financial adviser’s licence under the Financial Advisers Act, Chapter 110 in Singapore.
By receiving or reading this report, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. Any failure to comply with these terms and limitations may constitute a violation of law. This report has been provided to you for personal use only and shall not be reproduced, distributed or published by you in whole or in part, for any purpose. If you have received this report by mistake, please delete or destroy it, and notify the sender immediately.
The information and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively, the “Research”) contained in this report has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities Research believes to be reliable. However, Phillip Securities Research does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied that such information or Research is accurate, complete or appropriate or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this report is subject to change, and Phillip Securities Research shall not have any responsibility to maintain or update the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith.
Any opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, valuations and prices contained in this report are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. Past performance of any product referred to in this report is not indicative of future results.
This report does not constitute, and should not be used as a substitute for, tax, legal or investment advice. This report should not be relied upon exclusively or as authoritative, without further being subject to the recipient’s own independent verification and exercise of judgment. The fact that this report has been made available constitutes neither a recommendation to enter into a particular transaction, nor a representation that any product described in this report is suitable or appropriate for the recipient. Recipients should be aware that many of the products, which may be described in this report involve significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, and that any decision to enter into transactions involving such products should not be made, unless all such risks are understood and an independent determination has been made that such transactions would be appropriate. Any discussion of the risks contained herein with respect to any product should not be considered to be a disclosure of all risks or a complete discussion of such risks.
Nothing in this report shall be construed to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any product. Any decision to purchase any product mentioned in this report should take into account existing public information, including any registered prospectus in respect of such product.
Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may provide an array of financial services to a large number of corporations in Singapore and worldwide, including but not limited to commercial / investment banking activities (including sponsorship, financial advisory or underwriting activities), brokerage or securities trading activities. Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have participated in or invested in transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this report, and may have performed services for or solicited business from such issuers. Additionally, Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have provided advice or investment services to such companies and investments or related investments, as may be mentioned in this report.
Phillip Securities Research or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report may, from time to time maintain a long or short position in securities referred to herein, or in related futures or options, purchase or sell, make a market in, or engage in any other transaction involving such securities, and earn brokerage or other compensation in respect of the foregoing. Investments will be denominated in various currencies including US dollars and Euro and thus will be subject to any fluctuation in exchange rates between US dollars and Euro or foreign currencies and the currency of your own jurisdiction. Such fluctuations may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income return of the investment.
To the extent permitted by law, Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may at any time engage in any of the above activities as set out above or otherwise hold an interest, whether material or not, in respect of companies and investments or related investments, which may be mentioned in this report. Accordingly, information may be available to Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, which is not reflected in this report, and Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may, to the extent permitted by law, have acted upon or used the information prior to or immediately following its publication. Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have issued other material that is inconsistent with, or reach different conclusions from, the contents of this report.
The information, tools and material presented herein are not directed, intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to the applicable law or regulation or which would subject Phillip Securities Research to any registration or licensing or other requirement, or penalty for contravention of such requirements within such jurisdiction.
This report is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The products mentioned in this report may not be suitable for all investors and a person receiving or reading this report should seek advice from a professional and financial adviser regarding the legal, business, financial, tax and other aspects including the suitability of such products, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of that person, before making a commitment to invest in any of such products.
This report is not intended for distribution, publication to or use by any person in any jurisdiction outside of Singapore or any other jurisdiction as Phillip Securities Research may determine in its absolute discretion.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES FOR INCLUDED RESEARCH ANALYSES OR REPORTS OF FOREIGN RESEARCH HOUSE
Where the report contains research analyses or reports from a foreign research house, please note:
