CapitaLand Limited Faster growth and re-rating March 24, 2021 1925

PSR Recommendation: BUY Status: Maintained
Target Price: 4.38
  • Proposed restructuring and demerger of investment-management business to allow unitholders to realise immediate upside from development business (at 0.95x BV offered), compared to CAPL’s 20-30% historical discounts to NAV.
  • Implied consideration of S$4.102 is 24% premium to last traded price and 5-year VWAP. Comprises S$0.951 cash, one CLIM unit and 0.155 unit of CICT valued at S$2.823 and S$0.328 respectively.
  • Maintain BUY. TP raised from S$3.75 to S$4.38. Our new TP is based on an 80% probability-weighted RNAV that the demerger will be approved and SOTP. Demerger valuations are calculated using the average of the two valuation methods in Figures 1-2

 

What’s new?

Proposed restructuring and demerger of investment management business. CAPL and its largest shareholder, CLA Real Estate Holdings Pte Ltd (CLA), have proposed to restructure the group’s businesses by: 1) consolidating its investment-management platform and lodging business into CapitaLand Investment Management (CLIM); and 2) decoupling and privatising its property development business with an NAV of S$6.1bn (Figure 5). CLA is an investment holding company, indirectly wholly-owned by Temasek Holdings, with a 51.76% stake in CAPL. 

Implied consideration of S$4.102/share will be paid in cash (S$0.951) and the distribution in specie of one CLIM share valued at S$2.823 (1x NAV) and 0.155 unit of CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT SP, Accumulate, TP S$2.50).  The S$0.328 figure for CICT is based on its last traded price of S$2.122 (Figure 6). The cash consideration will not be reduced by CAPL’s proposed FY20 DPS of 9 cents.

After the restructuring, CLIM will hold on its balance sheet: 1) CAPL’s stakes in its listed REITs and private funds; 2) S$10.1bn in investment properties, with a pipeline for injection into the REITs and private funds over the next 2-3 years; 3) the group’s fund-management platform; 4) lodging platform; and 5) the asset managers of the listed REITs and private funds.

The restructuring is subject to approval from SGX and CAPL shareholders at an EGM in 3Q21 Assuming a successful completion sometime in 4Q21, CAPL will be delisted and CLIM will be the listed entity.

 

What do we think?

We see several merits in the scheme. By decoupling its development operations from its stable fund management and mature investment property portfolio, we believe investors will benefit from the immediate realisation of the development assets at the 0.95x BV offered, compared to CAPL’s historical 20-30% trading discounts to NAV. Shareholders can also participate in a potential re-rating of CLIM as real estate investment management (REIM) vehicles historically trade at 1.5-2.6x premiums to NAV. Without a bulky development book, CLIM’s fee and rental revenue from mature investment properties is expected to be more stable.

The scheme of arrangement will allow the group to sharpen its focus on asset-light and capital-efficient businesses and match each business’ risk-return profile with the appropriate capital sources and capital structures, in our view. CLIM will be positioned as an asset-light, growth business while capital-intensive and longer-gestation development projects and assets, which are usually valued at discounts to RNAV, will be privatised.

CLIM’s unitholders can still have exposure to development revenue as CLIM is able to establish a development fund to develop projects or jointly develop projects with the privatised CapitaLand Development.

 

 

 

 

Important Information

This report is prepared and/or distributed by Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd ("Phillip Securities Research"), which is a holder of a financial adviser’s licence under the Financial Advisers Act, Chapter 110 in Singapore.

By receiving or reading this report, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. Any failure to comply with these terms and limitations may constitute a violation of law. This report has been provided to you for personal use only and shall not be reproduced, distributed or published by you in whole or in part, for any purpose. If you have received this report by mistake, please delete or destroy it, and notify the sender immediately.

The information and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively, the “Research”) contained in this report has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities Research believes to be reliable. However, Phillip Securities Research does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied that such information or Research is accurate, complete or appropriate or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this report is subject to change, and Phillip Securities Research shall not have any responsibility to maintain or update the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith.

Any opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, valuations and prices contained in this report are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. Past performance of any product referred to in this report is not indicative of future results.

This report does not constitute, and should not be used as a substitute for, tax, legal or investment advice. This report should not be relied upon exclusively or as authoritative, without further being subject to the recipient’s own independent verification and exercise of judgment. The fact that this report has been made available constitutes neither a recommendation to enter into a particular transaction, nor a representation that any product described in this report is suitable or appropriate for the recipient. Recipients should be aware that many of the products, which may be described in this report involve significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, and that any decision to enter into transactions involving such products should not be made, unless all such risks are understood and an independent determination has been made that such transactions would be appropriate. Any discussion of the risks contained herein with respect to any product should not be considered to be a disclosure of all risks or a complete discussion of such risks.

Nothing in this report shall be construed to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any product. Any decision to purchase any product mentioned in this report should take into account existing public information, including any registered prospectus in respect of such product.

Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may provide an array of financial services to a large number of corporations in Singapore and worldwide, including but not limited to commercial / investment banking activities (including sponsorship, financial advisory or underwriting activities), brokerage or securities trading activities. Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have participated in or invested in transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this report, and may have performed services for or solicited business from such issuers. Additionally, Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have provided advice or investment services to such companies and investments or related investments, as may be mentioned in this report.

Phillip Securities Research or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report may, from time to time maintain a long or short position in securities referred to herein, or in related futures or options, purchase or sell, make a market in, or engage in any other transaction involving such securities, and earn brokerage or other compensation in respect of the foregoing. Investments will be denominated in various currencies including US dollars and Euro and thus will be subject to any fluctuation in exchange rates between US dollars and Euro or foreign currencies and the currency of your own jurisdiction. Such fluctuations may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income return of the investment.

To the extent permitted by law, Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may at any time engage in any of the above activities as set out above or otherwise hold an interest, whether material or not, in respect of companies and investments or related investments, which may be mentioned in this report. Accordingly, information may be available to Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, which is not reflected in this report, and Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may, to the extent permitted by law, have acted upon or used the information prior to or immediately following its publication. Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have issued other material that is inconsistent with, or reach different conclusions from, the contents of this report.

The information, tools and material presented herein are not directed, intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to the applicable law or regulation or which would subject Phillip Securities Research to any registration or licensing or other requirement, or penalty for contravention of such requirements within such jurisdiction.

This report is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The products mentioned in this report may not be suitable for all investors and a person receiving or reading this report should seek advice from a professional and financial adviser regarding the legal, business, financial, tax and other aspects including the suitability of such products, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of that person, before making a commitment to invest in any of such products.

This report is not intended for distribution, publication to or use by any person in any jurisdiction outside of Singapore or any other jurisdiction as Phillip Securities Research may determine in its absolute discretion.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES FOR INCLUDED RESEARCH ANALYSES OR REPORTS OF FOREIGN RESEARCH HOUSE

Where the report contains research analyses or reports from a foreign research house, please note:

  1. recipients of the analyses or reports are to contact Phillip Securities Research (and not the relevant foreign research house) in Singapore at 250 North Bridge Road, #06-00 Raffles City Tower, Singapore 179101, telephone number +65 6533 6001, in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, the analyses or reports; and
  2. to the extent that the analyses or reports are delivered to and intended to be received by any person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor, Phillip Securities Research accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the analyses or reports.
Subscribe
Notify of
guest
0 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

Get access to all the latest market news, reports, technical analysis
by signing up for a free account today!