
歸母淨利首破200億大關
洛陽鉬業發佈 2025 年業績預告,全年預計實現歸母淨利潤 200 億到 208 億元(人民
幣,下同),同比增長47.80%到 53.71%;扣非後歸母淨利潤 204 億到212 億元,同
比增長55.5%到61.6%。這是公司盈利首次進入200億元區間,連續五年刷新歷史最
佳業績。公司實現了高品質持續增長,這既得益於主要產品的量價齊升,也源於內部
經營管理能力的系統性增強。2025 年公司全面推進精細化管理、構建平臺型組織架
構,並大力推動降本增效措施,相關成果已逐步在經營業績中得以體現。年內,公司
銅產量達到741,149 噸,較上年增加超過 9 萬噸。以全年產量指引中值計算,目標完
成率達118%,且銅產量呈現逐季攀升的態勢,第四季度單季產量已接近20萬噸,進
一步彰顯了公司運營效率的提升與產能釋放的持續性。其他產品也全部超計畫預期。
其中,產鈷117,549 噸,完成度107%;產鉬13,906噸,完成度103%;產鎢7,114
噸,完成度102%;產鈮10,348噸,完成度103%,亦創歷史新高;磷肥產量121萬
噸,完成度105%。此外,實物貿易量為477.4萬噸,完成度112%。
收購巴西黃金資產,開啟戰略新篇
25 年12月洛陽鉬業以10.15億美元收購加拿大Equinox Gold 在巴西的四座在產金
礦,標誌著公司“銅金雙極”戰略的關鍵落地。本次收購將為公司新增約8噸/年的黃
金業務產量,並帶來可觀的資源儲備(黃金資源量 501.3 萬盎司,儲量 387.3 萬盎
司)。結合已於 2025 年 4 月收購的厄瓜多爾凱歌豪斯金礦,公司未來黃金年產量有
望在突破20噸,與公司核心的銅業務共同構成雙極驅動格局。此次收購的戰略價值顯
著:其一,它實現了公司黃金業務從伴生副產向核心主業的躍升,完成了從“銅鈷龍
頭”到“銅金雙極”的轉型。其二,資產位於巴西東北部至東南部多個州,能與公司
在該國現有的鈮磷業務形成區域協同,共用基礎設施與管理資源,深化南美佈局並優
化運營成本。其三,交易正逢黃金價格處於歷史高位,金價不斷破頂,盈利空間較
大,黃金業務有望成為未來長期盈利增長的核心驅動力之一。
估值及投資建議:
公司對 26 年主要產品全年產量做出指引,其中銅金屬預計為 76-82 萬噸;鈷金屬為
10-12 萬噸;鉬金屬為 1.15-1.45 萬噸;鎢金屬為 6500-7500 噸;鈮金屬為 1.0-1.1
萬噸;磷肥為105-125 萬噸;黃金為 6-8 噸;實物貿易量為 400-450 萬噸。我們認
為未來全球銅或將處於供需偏緊格局,銅礦供應端容易受到干擾,而需求端則受益於
電網投資、AI資料中心投入加大。2025 年 10 月 剛果(金)政府公佈鈷出口配額細
則,結束自年初起持續八個月的鈷出口禁令。新規實行年度配額管理,2026-2027年
每年配額均為 9.66 萬噸,鈷供需偏緊格局延續,業務增長確定性強,鈷價有望
持續走強。今年開始公司對黃金產量提供指引,我們期待公司未來黃金產量實
現放量,從而增加公司營業收入。我們上調對公司收入的預測,預計公司在
2025-2027 年收入分別為 2241.92 億元,2387.08 億元和 2475.59 億元,EPS
為0.95/1.15/1.28 元,BVPS 為 4/4.8/5.6,給予公司 2026 年 5 倍 P/B,並給
予26.97 港幣的目標價,上調至”買入”評級。(現價截至01月28日)
r
風險因素:主要產品價格波動、地緣政治及政策風險、利率風險、匯率風險、
安全環保及自然災害風險。
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本科主修市場行銷和英語,並於香港浸會大學獲得經濟學碩士學位。現為輝立証券持牌分析師,主要負責能源和公用事業等板塊的研究。曾在大型銀行、券商和資產管理公司工作,對於期貨和大宗商品衍生品領域擁有銷售、研究分析和市場推廣等工作經驗。 Margaret, a holder of a Bachelor`s degree in Marketing and English and a Master`s degree in Applied Economics from Hong Kong Baptist University, is currently employed as a licensed analyst at Phillip Securities. She specializes in conducting research focusing on the energy and utilities sectors. Prior to her current position, Margaret gained valuable work experience in a large bank, securities firm, and asset management companies. Her expertise lies in sales, research analysis, and marketing within the fields of futures and commodities derivatives.