
公司簡介
公司著力構建以清潔能源為核心的業務版圖,覆蓋能源開發、能源裝備、能源服務與能源應用四大領域。在能源開發領域,公司致力於深入的屬地化清潔能源資源開發及管理,賦能優化地區能源結構,並提供高效、安全的能源資產管理服務;在能源裝備領域,基於嚴苛的智造品質管制標準和綠色供應鏈管理體系,公司提供更高效、更可靠、更低成本的智慧能源裝備,讓清潔能源的生產和獲取觸手可得;在能源服務領域,以貫穿清潔能源價值鏈的專業知識和經驗優勢,公司提供從規劃設計、工程建設到能源場站運維的服務綜合解決方案,讓標準高效、智慧透明、靈活定制的服務能力貫穿始終;在能源應用領域,公司在源、網、儲、荷各能源環節進行優化和再造,積極構建面向新型電力系統的零碳解決方案。
行業資料分析
國家能源局資料顯示,2025年1-11月份,全社會用電量累計94602億千瓦時,同比增長5.2%,其中規模以上工業發電量為88567億千瓦時。從分產業用電看,第一產業用電量1374億千瓦時,同比增長10.3%;第二產業用電量60436億千瓦時,同比增長3.7%,其中,工業用電量同比增長3.9%,高技術及裝備製造業用電量同比增長6.4%;第三產業用電量18204億千瓦時,同比增長8.5%,其中,充換電服務業以及資訊傳輸、軟體和資訊技術服務業用電量分別同比增長48.3%、16.8%;城鄉居民生活用電量14588億千瓦時,同比增長7.1%。全國累計發電裝機容量37.9億千瓦,同比增長17.1%。其中風電裝機容量6.0億千瓦,同比增長22.4%。全國新增發電裝機容量44557萬千瓦,同比增加12891萬千瓦;其中,新增風電裝機容量8250萬千瓦,同比增加3076萬千瓦。2025年一季度,風電光伏發電合計裝機達到14.82億千瓦,歷史性超過全口徑的火電裝機(14.5億千瓦),這標誌著清潔能源成為電力系統主力,且未來此趨勢將延續。2025年前三季度,全國風電新增並網容量6109萬千瓦,其中陸上風電5759萬千瓦,海上風電350萬千瓦。截至2025年9月底,全國風電累計並網容量達到5.82億千瓦,同比增長21.3%,其中陸上風電5.37億千瓦,海上風電4461萬千瓦。2025年前三季度,全國風電累計發電量8137億千瓦時,同比增長14.3%,全國風電平均利用率94.0%。以上資料顯示風電在規模與效率上同步提升,能源替代進程有望進一步加快。GWEC發佈2025年全球海上風電報告,表示大多數政府和開發商仍然致力於海上風電,對全球中期前景依然堅定樂觀。預計海上風電到2029年的年複合增長率為28%,到2034年為15%,全球海上風電年新增容量預計將在2030年突破30吉瓦的里程碑,並在2033年達到50吉瓦。
反內卷遏制推動價格回升
為呼應國家引導行業有序發展的政策,風電產業積極推動自律,扭轉了以往低價競爭的態勢。主要企業共同優化招標規則,提升技術標準權重,頭部整機商也主動退出惡性價格競爭,轉向價值競爭。隨著政策與市場雙向發力,風機價格已逐步回歸理性水平。國際風電網資料顯示,1-11月陸上風電(含塔筒)中標均價2078.17元/kW。陸上風電(不含塔筒)中標均價1526.97元/kW。1-11月海上風電(含塔筒)中標均價3123.49元/kW;海上風電(不含塔筒)中標均價2713.5元/kW,陸上風電以及海上風電(含塔筒)均價對比去年全年均價明顯回升。
136號文鼓勵風機大型化及智慧化並行
136號文明確新能源專案上網電量原則上全部進入電力市場,通過“機制電價”競價設定收益邊界——當市場交易價格低於機制電價時給予差價補償,高於機制電價時扣除差價。這一“多退少補”機制終結了以往固定電價的保障機制,迫使企業直面市場波動,激勵技術升級和自主配置儲能。 市場化競爭下,企業需通過技術迭代降低度電成本以應對電價壓力。政策推動風機大型化、漂浮式風電等技術商業化,同時加速淘汰低效率產能。我們認為未來風機大型化將從高速增長進入穩定優化的階段,但是整體的風機大型化趨勢不變,金風科技加速研發,將進一步鞏固其大型化競爭優勢。
內外需共振鑄就風電行業高景氣度
2024年,全國風電新增裝機容量7982萬千瓦,同比增長6%,其中陸上風電7579萬千瓦,海上風電404萬千瓦。《2025年能源工作指導意見》明確全國發電總裝機達到36億千瓦以上,新增新能源發電裝機規模2億千瓦以上,發電量達到10.6萬億千瓦時左右,跨省跨區輸電能力持續提升。《風能北京宣言2.0》提出,為實現1.5℃目標,到2030年全球需累計開發風電27億千瓦,到2035年風電累計裝機達到43億千瓦以上。中國風電“十五五”期間年新增裝機容量應不低於1.2億千瓦,其中海上風電年新增裝機容量不低於1500萬千瓦,確保2030年中國風電累計裝機容量達到13億千瓦,到2035年累計裝機不少於20億千瓦,到2060年累計裝機達到50億千瓦。我們認為在強有力的政策支持下,國內風電需求有望維持高增長態勢。國內政策支援企業“設備+產能+服務”全產業鏈出海,據北極星風力發電網統計,2025年前三季度國內企業累計斬獲國際風機訂單23.043GW,上半年出口訂單規模同比激增100%。歐洲“可再生能源加速法案”等政策推動海上風電裝機增長。2025年前三季度公司外部待執行訂單總量為38,861.14MW。國際業務累計裝機 11,214.62MW,其中在亞洲(除中國)裝機突破3GW,在南美洲、大洋洲裝機量均已超過2GW,在北美洲、非洲裝機量均已超過1GW。截至2025年9月30日,公司海外在手外部訂單共計7,161.72MW,同比增長29.4%。我們認為內外需共振鑄就風電行業高景氣度,公司訂單有望實現持續增長。
營收與利潤均實現高增
2025年前三季度,公司營收與利潤均實現高速增長,營收481.47億元(同比+34.34%),其中第三季度營收196.1億元(同比+25.4%),主要因公司風機及零部件銷售規模增加。1-9月公司實現對外銷售容量達18.45GW(同比+90.01%)。歸母淨利潤25.84億元(同比+44.21%),第三季度單季淨利潤10.97億元(同比+170.64%),增速顯著高於前三季度整體水準。利潤增長主要因公司毛利額及公允價值變動收益增加,減去投資收益減少等。
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本科主修市場行銷和英語,並於香港浸會大學獲得經濟學碩士學位。現為輝立証券持牌分析師,主要負責能源和公用事業等板塊的研究。曾在大型銀行、券商和資產管理公司工作,對於期貨和大宗商品衍生品領域擁有銷售、研究分析和市場推廣等工作經驗。 Margaret, a holder of a Bachelor`s degree in Marketing and English and a Master`s degree in Applied Economics from Hong Kong Baptist University, is currently employed as a licensed analyst at Phillip Securities. She specializes in conducting research focusing on the energy and utilities sectors. Prior to her current position, Margaret gained valuable work experience in a large bank, securities firm, and asset management companies. Her expertise lies in sales, research analysis, and marketing within the fields of futures and commodities derivatives.