阿里巴巴 (09988.HK) 閃購投入加大壓制短期利潤 August 27, 2025 12

PSR Recommendation: ACCUMULATE Status: Maintained
Target Price: HKD144

公司簡介
公司提供技術基礎設施及行銷平臺,運營七個業務分部。中國商業分部包括中國零售
商業業務如淘寶、天貓、盒馬等以及批發業務。國際商業分部包括國際零售及批發商
業業務,如 Lazada、速賣通等。本地生活服務分部包括基於位置業務,如餓了麼、高
德、飛豬等。菜鳥分部包括國內及國際一站式物流服務及供應鏈管理解決方案。雲業
務分部包括向國內外企業提供公有雲服務和混合雲服務,如阿里雲及釘釘。數位媒體
及娛樂分部包括優酷、誇克和阿里影業,以及其他內容和分銷平臺以及線上遊戲業
務。創新業務及其他分部包括達摩院、天貓精靈及其他業務。
財務摘要
FY2025Q4,公司實現總營收 2365 億元(人民幣,下同),同比增長 6.6%;經營利
潤為 285 億元,同比增長 92.8%;經調整 EBITA 為 326 億元,同比增長 36.1%;經
調整淨利潤 298 億元,同比增長 22.2%。
FY2025 年全年,公司實現總營收 9963 億元,同比增長 5.9%;經營利潤為 1409 億
元,同比增長 24.3%;經調整 EBITA 為 1731 億元,同比增長 4.9%,主要由於收入增
長和運營效率提升,部分被對電商業務及科技領域投入的增加所抵消。經調整淨利潤
1581 億元,同比保持穩定。按收入類型劃分,淘天集團收入為 4498 億元,同比增長
3.4%,占總收入 45.1%。阿里國際數字商業集團收入 1323 億元,同比增長 28.9%,
占總收入 13.3%。雲智能集團收入為 1180 億元,同比增長 11.0%,占總收入
11.8%。本地生活集團收入為 15 億元,同比增長 12.2%,占總收入 6.7%。
淘天集團:GMV 穩健增長,貨幣化率提升,但閃購投入加大壓制利潤
考慮到國家擴內需、促消費政策的推動,以及平臺在提升價格競爭力和優化消費者體
驗方面的持續投入,我們預計 FY2026Q1 淘天集團 GMV 增速較上季度有所提升。全
站推廣工具的深化應用以及淘寶自 2024 年 9 月起增收千分之六的基礎軟體服務費,
共同帶動淘天集團整體貨幣化率同比提升。因此,我們預計 FY2026 客戶管理收入將
同比增長 7.7%,達到 3470 億元。
然而,閃購業務的大幅投入對短期利潤形成壓力。2025 年 7 月 2 日,淘寶閃購宣佈
未來 12 個月內將向商家和消費者直補 500 億元。此計畫推出後效果顯著,7 月 7 日
淘寶閃購+餓了麼日訂單量即突破 8000 萬單(同年 6 月 23 日剛突破 6000 萬單),
其中非餐飲訂單超 1300 萬單,日活躍用戶數超過 2 億。儘管淘寶閃購+餓了麼的日均
訂單量呈現快速增長態勢,但整體補貼水準處於高位,導致淘天集團利潤短期內承
壓。我們預計 FY2026 淘天集團的經調整 EBITA 將同比下降 14.2%至 1485 億元,對
應經調整 EBITA 利潤率由 17.4%下降至 14.2%。

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About the author

Profile photo of Megan Tao

Megan Tao
Analyst
Research

She graduated from the University of New South Wales with a bachelor's degree in accounting and finance and from the University of Hong Kong with a master's degree in finance. He is currently a licensed analyst at Phillip Securities, mainly responsible for research in the TMT and semiconductor sectors, and has worked in securities companies and family offices.

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