Lendlease Global Commercial REIT – Retail strength continues, AEI upside next

 

 

 

 

 

The positives
+ Strong operational performance. Retail rental reversion stood at 11.7% (FY25: 10.2%), with
committed occupancy at 98.5% (down 1% YoY). Tenant sales grew 24.0% YoY (up 4.0% ex-PLQ
Mall), and cumulative visitation rose 16.4% YoY (up 5.2% ex-PLQ Mall), reflecting resilient
suburban retail demand. The F&B, sports, and jewelry/watches tenants had strong retail
performance, while gifts and ancillary-use tenants lagged. Management is reconfiguring c. 16,000
sq ft at PLQ Mall, Levels 1 and 2 (former H&M, Uniqlo, and Foot Locker space), into 3-5 new
tenancies, including two anchor F&B concepts in advanced discussions, targeting high-teens rental
reversion on completion by Dec 26.

+ Strong capital management. S$120mn of the S$200mn perp securities maturing in Jun26
were refinanced at 4.28% (from 4.2%), with the remaining S$80mn funded through cheaper
bank debt. The cost of debt of 2.75% (down 71 bps YoY) also came in lower than the 2.9%
guidance provided by management. Weighted average debt maturity is extended to 2.8 years
(from 2.6 years), with no substantial refinancing till FY28 (EUR223.0mn of term loans and
S$100mn of loans are due). Management expects potential interest savings from future
refinancing, as the euro-denominated debt hedges (expiring at the end of FY28) were locked
in during 2023 when base rates were elevated. However, we have not modelled any savings
given rate uncertainty.

 

Lendlease Global Commercial REIT – Singapore retail portfolio fundamentals sound

 

 

 

 

The positives
+ Retail rental reversion strong. Singapore retail rental reversion was +12.2%. Jem and
313@somerset delivered mid- to high-single-digit reversions, while PLQ Mall is expected to
achieve higher reversions than legacy assets. Reversion was driven by resilient Chinese F&B
operators, gold and jewellery, sporting goods, and athleisure tenants. We expect high-single
to low-double-digit reversion to persist into 4Q26.

+ PLQ mall integration progressing well. With 100% of PLQ mall acquired as of Mar26, asset
enhancement initiatives have been progressing on c. 16,000 sq ft across levels 1 and 2. Level
1 is pre-leased, whereas level 2 leasing is in progress. The reconfigured spaces are expected
to generate income starting in 2H27. PLQ Mall loans have also been refinanced, securing c.
S$2mn in annual all-in debt cost savings. The conversion of PLQ Mall to a limited liability
partnership structure is targeted for completion by end Jun26. The PLQ Mall acquisition is
expected to deliver 2% DPU accretion.

+ Stronger capital structure. ICR improved to 1.8× from 1.5× in 3Q25, supported by i)
divestment of Jem office in Nov25, ii) refinancing of PLQ Mall loans, iii) replacement of the
S$200mn perpetual securities with cheaper funding. The weighted average cost of debt fell
to 2.89% p.a. from c. 3.5% a year ago. The S$8.9mn disposal gain from the Jem office sale is
being held in reserve for potential future AEI initiatives.

Lendlease Global Commercial REIT – PLQ Mall strengthens suburban retail portfolio

 

 

 

 

 

 

The positives
+ PLQ Mall acquisition strengthens retail portfolio. The 70% acquisition of PLQ Mall from
ADIA for S$885mn (a 2.1% discount to appraised value) is 2.5% DPU accretive. PLQ Mall has
over 200 tenants with a committed occupancy of 99.7% and a WALE of 2.3 years. The
acquisition lifts the suburban retail portfolio to 63% of total portfolio value at S$3.9bn (from
55% at S$3.3bn). The retail portfolio’s rental reversion was 10.4% (c.7% ex-PLQ Mall), with
occupancy at 99.5%. PLQ Mall has been under-rented since its Covid period opening, and
ongoing reconfiguration works are expected to drive rental uplift from single digits to the high
teens per cent range.

+ Disciplined capital management. Gross debt has fallen S$500mn to c.S$1.2bn, compressing
gearing 430 bps to 38.4% and expanding ICR from 1.6x to 1.8x. This was driven by the
refinancing of S$200mn of perpetual securities with S$120mn of new issuance at a lower
coupon (down to 4.75% from 5.25% p.a.), and by cheaper loan funding, which compressed
the cost of debt by 19bps to 2.90%. 72% of borrowings are fixed-rate hedged. Near-term
refinancing risk is minimal, with FY26 debt maturity of S$100mn well covered by S$701.2mn
of available facilities.

+ Room for sustained rental reversion. Jem’s acquisition in FY2022 compressed portfolio
occupancy cost by over 600 bps to 23.7%, as seen from Figure 1. This is likely due to suburban
malls typically having lower occupancy costs than prime retail destinations such as
313@somerset. The addition of PLQ Mall could lead to a similar effect, particularly given that
the mall opened during Covid when occupancy was prioritised over high rental rates. The
potentially lower occupancy cost for the portfolio provides greater headroom for rental
upside without straining tenants.

Lendlease Global Commercial REIT – Long waited JEM divestment at valuation

Lendlease Global Commercial REIT – Minimal downtime from departure of Cathay

·       While no financials were provided for 3Q25, LREIT reported sound operating metrics for its Singapore assets, with retail achieving 10.4% and the rental review for JEM concluded at 13%. We expect rental reversion to remain at high single-digit for 4Q25.

·       Portfolio occupancy dipped slightly by 0.2ppt QoQ to 97.1%, with Building 3 of Sky Complex seeing stagnancy in backfilling its space. LREIT successfully replaced Cathay Cineplex with Shaw Theatres at a comparable rental rate and implemented an instalment plan to address the S$4.3mn in rental arrears.

·       We maintain our BUY recommendation with a lower DDM-TP of S$0.69 (prev: S$0.74). We revised our FY25e/26e DPU forecasts down by 2%/0% to 3.60/4.05 cents and COE by 0.4ppt to 8.4%, reflecting slower-than-expected backfilling at Building 3 of Sky Complex and a 3-month income vacuum due to Cathay Cineplex’s delinquency. LREIT is trading at an FY25e dividend yield of 7% and P/NAV of 0.69x.

 

Lendlease Global Commercial REIT – Low-teens rental reversion expected for JEM office

·       Gross revenue and NPI declined by 13.6% and 19.8% YoY, respectively, accounting for 46% and 45% of our FY25e estimates. This was due to the absence of pre-termination fee paid by Sky Italia and the longer-than-expected backfilling of Building 3 Sky Complex. NPI margin was impacted by a one-off expense of c.£1mn for equipment repairs, which has yet to be capitalized, along with higher marketing expenses. 
·       DPU plunged by 14.3% YoY to 1.8 cents, which was in line with our estimates and formed 48% of our FY25e forecast. Higher financing costs dragged down DPU since the cost of borrowing inched up by 20bps YoY. 
·       Retail rental reversion remained resilient in FY25e, achieving 10.7% for retail and 1.2% for office, despite tenant sales falling 5.2% YoY. We have revised our FY25e/26e DPU forecasts lower by 2%/2% to 3.70/4.05 cents, reflecting the slower-than-expected backfilling of Building 3 at Sky Complex. We maintain our BUY recommendation with a lower DDM-TP of S$0.74 (prev: S$0.76). While FY25e earnings are expected to benefit from low-teens rental reversion of both Singapore retail and Jem Office, DPU growth may be constrained by uncertainty surrounding the interest rate cut trajectory.
 
 

Lendlease Global Commercial REIT – Higher for longer interest rate

Lendlease Global Commercial REIT – Cost of borrowing peaks

 

 

Lendlease Global Commercial REIT – DPU is bottoming out

 

 

Lendlease Global Commercial REIT – Rental upside to come from Sky Complex Milan

 

 

The Positives

+ Robust retail rental reversion of 15.3% with 313 achieving c.20% and Jem delivering resilient performance of c.10%. Rental reversion for offices saw a slight cooling down, landing at 1.5% in 3Q24. However, stable support comes from tenants with long lease periods, contributing to c.22% of the total gross rental income. We expect rental reversion for the whole year FY24e to be c.15% (FY23: 4.8%).

 

+ Potential rental uplift from Jem and Sky Complex. We anticipate rental upside from Building 3 Sky Complex Milan, driven by healthy office demand in the surrounding area and lower-than-average rental rates previously signed by Sky Italia. In 3Q24, LREIT secured 8.1% of the net lettable area (NLA) leases through internal sourcing. LREIT expects backfilling to be completed by 50% by the end of 2024, with the rental reversion of c. 30-40% to match current market rates. Jem is also reviewing its rental at the end of 2024, and the current market rental is c.20% higher than the previous rent signed five years ago. We expect rental escalation to be in the high-teens, resulting in an improvement in revenue by c.2% upon successful negotiation.

 

The Negative

- NIL

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