The Positive
+ Growth in co-living and car park. Co-living revenue surged 50% to S$10.4mn. The improvement came largely from higher room rates and a new 105 keys Coliwoo Lavender (opened in Sep22). The 411 key Coliwoo Orchard started only in Feb23. And contribution in 1H23 has been minimal. Car park revenue rose on the back of increased volumes. This was despite the number of car parks remaining flat at 74 (or ~21,500 vehicle parking lots).
The Negative
- Higher interest expense due to expansion. Interest expense almost doubled to S$4.4mn in 1H23 due to higher interest rates and an increase in net debt to S$144mn (1H22: S$98mn). The rise in debt was due to acquisition of 404 Pasir Panjang and 48 Arab Street. Other options for LHN to de-gear include monetising its properties. A further source of recycling capital is the completion of the 55 Tuas food factory project, where strata units will be sold.
Highlights
Maintain BUY with unchanged TP of S$0.47
We maintain a BUY with an unchanged TP of S$0.47. Valuations are attractive at 4x PE and a dividend yield of 6%. The two major earnings drivers will be the expansion of the Coliwoo footprint across Singapore and the completion of a new ISO depot by mid-2023.
The Positive
+ Co-living riding on surge in rental rates and capacity. Co-living revenue jumped 38% YoY from higher rental rates and a 25% rise in room capacity in FY22e. New capacity additions were 320 Balestier Road, 75 Beach Road, 115 Geylang Road and a JV properties at 40 and 42 Amber Road and 471 Balestier Road. Fair value gains caused a spike in PBT for co-living.
The Negatives
- Facilities management dragged down by dormitory. Facilities management earnings dropped 37% YoY in 2H22 to S$4.4mn. The decline was due to the exit of the dormitory business in mid-2022. The drag from dorm earnings will persist into 1H23.
- Rise in net debt from investment properties. Net debt has risen from S$63mn to S$107mn in FY22. The increase in net debt was due to S$53mn invested in investment properties. We expect stability in FY23e cash-flows, as the focus will be on launching and raising occupancy levels of Mount Elizabeth Coliwoo. Bulk of the debt is on fixed rates for the next two years.
The Positive
+ Co-living (Coliwoo) is main driver of revenue and profit growth. Co-living revenue was a record S$7mn. This was due to full half-yearly revenue recognised from the property at 1557 Keppel Road, which turned operational in 3Q21. Two other properties, including 320 Balestier Road, and a JV property at 40 and 42 Amber Road commenced operations in 1H22. Profit of S$23.9mn in 1H22 was mainly due to fair value gain on investment properties of S$10.8mn and on JV investment properties of S$9mn.
The Negatives
- Lower revenue from commercial properties and facilities management. Revenue from commercial properties decreased but profit was higher. This was due to the disposal of loss-making properties. Revenue from the carpark business under facilities management continues to perform well, but overall revenue dropped due to lower demand for dormitory management services.
- Higher net debt. In 1H22, LHN recorded net debt of S$97.9mn, which is up 51% from S$64.6mn in 2H21. Long-term bank borrowings were up 28% to S$115.4mn, mainly used to finance the acquisition of the property at 55 Tuas South Avenue 1, renovation and working capital for the co-living business.
Other updates
Strong demand for industrial properties. The Work Plus Store outlets are seeing full occupancy, as demand from e-commerce business owners remains strong. The online retail sales proportion remains elevated at an average of 16% in the first quarter of 2022.
According to Edgeprop, industrial rents in Singapore climbed 1% in the first quarter of 2022, which marks the sixth consecutive quarter of rental increase. Industrial leasing demand is expected to be strong, as demand for logistics remains high, combined with tight supply. Supply chain disruptions and demand for storage requirements from semiconductors, pharmaceutical and biomedical sectors are expected to remain strong.
In 1H22, occupancy rate for LHN’s industrial properties inched up 1.9 ppts to 95.4%.
Aggressively expanding Coliwoo portfolio. LHN continues to ride on the promising prospect of the residential rental market in Singapore. Despite hitting a seven-year high, the local private residential property rental index has continued rising, and by 12% YoY in the first quarter of 2022. Amidst the various options, LHN provides flexible and affordable residential offerings. As the Singapore borders reopen, we are expecting stronger demand from expats and international students returning to the country.
In 1H22, the property at 320 Balestier Rd, and a joint venture property at 40 and 42 Amber Road have commenced operations. There are four other residential properties expected to commence operations in 2H22 under the Coliwoo co-living portfolio. In FY22, we expect the six properties to add 250 keys in total, which implies an increase of 30% on a full-year basis.
LHN has also entered into a master lease for a block of serviced residences at 2 Mount Elizabeth Link, Singapore. The company expects operations at this property to commence in 1Q23, which would be adding 411 keys to the portfolio. We are expecting the number of keys to increase by 50% in FY23.
From FY21 to FY23, the number of keys is expected to double.
Company Background
LHN Logistics is a division of LHN Ltd. The company has two principal business segments, transportation (66% of FY21 revenue) and container depot services (34%).
Under the transportation segment, LHN Logistics provides domestic and cross-border ISO tank and container transportation services for various petrochemical products, base oils, bitumen and bulk cargo to customers in Singapore and Malaysia.
As for container depot services, the company provides container storage, surveying, cleaning, repair and maintenance services for general purpose and refrigerated containers.
Key Highlights
Outlook
Container depot services. Strong demand for logistics continues to fuel container volumes, even as supply chain issues gradually ease. On a 12-month moving average basis, container throughput in Singapore in February 2022 increased 1.6% to 3.12mn TEUs, while the volume at the Laem Chabang port increased 13.5% to 721k TEUs. The container depots in Thailand are expected to see recovery in volumes following the easing of Covid-19 restrictions.
ISO tanks. Construction of the new ISO tank depot will provide a comprehensive range of solutions for customers, from transportation, to washing and storage. LHN Logistics will enjoy a first-mover advantage in integrating all these services in a single location.
The Positives
+ Higher profit contribution from industrial and co-living properties. FY21 PATMI increased 16% to S$28.1mn. Profit before tax for Coliwoo co-living properties in FY21 was almost thrice that of S$898k in FY20. Industrial properties turned around from a net loss of S$1.9mn in FY20 to a net profit of S$10.9mn in FY21.
+ Higher revenue and profit from facilities management. Profit before tax for facilities management jumped 85%, driven by the joint venture acquisition of Bukit Timah Shopping Centre carpark in December 2020 and the acquisition of 33 JTC carparks in January 2021. There was also an increase in facilities management services amid the pandemic.
The Negatives
- Lower revenue due to streamlining of operations. Revenue contribution from industrial properties decreased due to the expiry of four master leases in FY20. Revenue contribution from commercial properties was lower due to the expiry of three master leases in FY21.
- Commercial properties suffered net loss. Commercial properties swung from a net profit of S$3.2mn in FY20 to net loss of S$938k in FY21. This was mainly due to the lower demand for offices amidst the prolonged work-from-home trend becoming the new normal.
Other updates
Aggressively expanding Coliwoo portfolio. There are five residential properties expected to commence operations in FY22 under the Coliwoo co-living portfolio. Most recently, a Mount Elizabeth Property was acquired, which will be part of LHN’s expansion of its Coliwoo portfolio. It is a residential property with a Gross Floor Area of approximately 104,375 sqft, and 22 storeys. Excluding the Mount Elizabeth Property, we expect five properties to add 200 keys, representing a 25% increase for FY22. The strong momentum of demand for these properties is also expected to continue, with the trend of more millennials moving out, the work-from-home trend becoming the new normal and a gradual reopening of borders.
Proposed spin-off and separate listing of LHN Logistics on Catalist. LHN has submitted a spin-off application to The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited for the proposed spin-off and separate listing of the shares of LHN Logistics Pte Ltd, which will hold the logistics services business of LHN. It is expected that LHN will continue to hold majority shareholding in LHN Logistics, which will remain consolidated with LHN.
The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited and Singapore Exchange are still considering the applications and there is no assurance that the proposed spin-off will be approved.
Maintain BUY with a lower TP of S$0.49, from S$0.54
We have a lower TP of S$0.49, from S$0.54. FY22e PATMI has been lowered by 16% to S$33.8mn as we lower our forecasts of contribution from residential and commercial properties and facilities management. The outlook continues to remain strong for all business segments, especially space optimisation, as we adapt to the new normal. Higher demand for co-living and self-storage spaces are expected.
We now peg the stock to 7x FY22e P/E, down from 9.5x FY22e P/E, still a 50% discount to the industry average.
Company background
LHN dates back to 1991, as a real-estate management group with a track record in the re-purpose and re-leasing of real estate to capture trends. LHN takes old, unused and under-utilised industrial, commercial and residential properties and enhance and transform them into thoughtfully designed and highly usable space.
It has three main businesses: space optimisation, consisting of industrial, commercial and residential properties; facility management; and logistics services.
Investment merits
COMPANY BACKGROUND
LHN was listed on the Catalist in 2015 and dual-listed on the mainboard of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2017. It is a real-estate management group, generating value through expertise in space optimisation. LHN also provides facility management and logistics services, which complement its space optimisation business.
In Singapore, LHN manages 31 commercial, industrial and residential properties, two container depots and 74 carparks.
REVENUE
Revenue is derived from three businesses.
Space optimisation. Revenue is primarily generated from rental income, including warehousing service fees, from the following properties:
Facility management. Revenue from building maintenance, security services, cleaning, landscaping and pest control is derived from fees charged to tenants on a cost plus mark-up basis. Revenue from car-park management is derived from car-park rates which are either fixed by LHN for private car parks or regulated by the government for car parks owned by government bodies.
Logistics services. Revenue is derived from charges for the transportation and storage of containers, cargo-handling, service and repair.
An increase in revenue in FY20 stemmed primarily from higher residential revenue under its space optimisation and facility management businesses. The increase in revenue from residential properties was led by: 1) non-recurring revenue of S$16.1mn from its new dormitory business for services provided in 2HFY20; and 2) revenue of S$6.4mn mainly from co-living residences, a new serviced residence project in Myanmar and a new student hostel in Singapore.
Revenue growth was affected by the adoption of IFRS 16, as income and expenses for subleases are now reclassified as interest income and interest expenses respectively. Without the adoption of IFRS 16, FY20 revenue would have been S$151.8mn (Figure 3).