The Positives
+ Strong recovery in the lodging segment. Lodging management fee-related income grew 38.2% to S$76mn due to higher room rates as well as improved occupancy across the portfolio. Portfolio RevPAU grew 42% YoY to S$81 and is 103% of 1Q19 pre-COVID levels. The real estate investment business also benefitted from the recovery in the lodging segment, with revenue growing 10.9% YoY to S$447mn. With the FY23 target of 160k lodging units in the portfolio hit in 1Q23 after signing >4k units in 1Q23, the new target is to double its fee revenue from lodging management to >S$500mn in 5 years.
The Negatives
- 1Q23 revenue growth of 5.6% was below our estimate of 14% for FY23e, due to lower event-driven fees from fund management (-S$33m or -68.8% YoY) with the lull in property transaction activities. However, recurring fees held stable for private funds at S$23mn, while fees from listed funds grew 4.9% to S$64mn. As a result, fee related earnings from fund management fell 22.7% to S$102mn.
- Cash flow from operations fell 24.6% to S$101m, or FFO/share of 2cts. As a result, net debt/equity has risen to 0.53x, and interest coverage is lower at 4.5x. The cost of debt saw an increase of 50bp to 3.6% from end 2022, as only 62% of its debt is on fixed rate.
The Positives
+ Fund management fee-related revenue (+5% YoY) formed 15% of revenue. PE fees (+26%) were boosted by higher transaction-related fees, which formed 43% of PE fees, while recurring PE fees fell 10% YoY. CLI’s listed funds posted +3% and -33% growth in recurring and transaction-related fees, respectively. The decline was the result of a high base in FY21, as transactions picked up after the pandemic year in 2020. Recurring fees made up 77% of FY22 fee-related revenue.
+ Lodging segment recovering steadily. Lodging management fees rose 36% on recovering operating performance as well as 9.3k/2k new units turning operational in FY22/4Q22. RevPAU grew 44% as average daily rates grew 18% and portfolio occupancy increased 10%. Recovery was seen across all CLI’s key markets, except China, with the strongest RevPAU recovery in Europe (+99%) and Singapore (+72%). The group also signed 9.3k keys in 9M22, 13% more than the number of keys signed in FY21, taking the number of keys signed to 159k. CLI is on track (~99%) to meet its 2023 target of signing 160k keys.
+ Real estate investment business (REIB) grew 40% YoY, on the back of reopening in most of CLI's markets, except for China. Leasing activity in India has similarly picked up with Net Property Income growing 5% on the back of physical occupancy at business parks improving to ~60% from <5% in FY21. In Singapore, NPI rose 9% due to positive rental reversion across all asset classes and occupancy increasing across sectors. For the other markets, NPI increased 9% with resilient occupancy of >90% across sectors as improved NPI across Australia, South Korea, USA and UK/Europe offset a slight decrease in NPI for Germany and Japan.
The Negatives
- China retail lagging recovery. Due to China's zero COVID-19 policy, China has only just started to re-open after the pandemic. While tenant sales in Singapore have recovered 29.4% YoY for FY22, tenant sales in China declined 15.7%. Similarly, shopper traffic in China has declined 23.6% compared to an increase of 28.6% in Singapore. Occupancy at Chinese malls has dipped to 90% (FY21: 94%), compared to the 97% retail occupancy for Singapore.
- Macro-economic and geopolitical headwinds slowing fund generation and acquisition momentum. Inflation, rising interest rates and the Russia-Ukraine conflict have resulted in higher required returns for capital investors, limiting the assets eligible to seed funds. While USD-denominated capital has taken a wait-and-see approach towards RMB investments, CLI’s RMB fund management license allows it to tap local capital. However, the lockdowns and tightened restrictions in China in FY22 have impeded business discussions and delayed planned transactions.
Note: In the 3Q22 update, only revenue and funds under management details were provided
The Positives
+ Fund management fee-related revenue (+16% YoY) formed 15% of revenue. PE fees (+44%) were boosted by higher transaction-related fees, which formed 47% of PE fees, while recurring PE fees dipped slight and fell 5% YoY. CLI’s listed funds posted +7% and -6% growth in recurring and transaction-related fees respectively. The latter was the result of a high base in 9M21, as transactions picked up after the pandemic year in 2020. Recurring fees made up 74% of 9M22 fee-related revenue.
+ Lodging segment recovering steadily. Lodging management fees rose 48% on recovering operating performance as well as 8.2k/7.3k new units turning operational in FY21/9M22. RevPAU grew 41% as average daily rates grew 20% and portfolio occupancy increased 10%. Recovery was seen across all CLI’s key markets, except China, with the strongest RevPAU recovery in Europe (+139%) and Singapore (+66%). The group also signed 7.3k keys in 9M22, ~89% of the number of keys signed in FY21, taking the number of keys signed to 155k. CLI is on track (~97%) to meet its 2023 target of signing 160k keys.
+ Real estate investment business (REIB) grew 48% YoY, on the back of reopening in most of CLI's markets, except for China. Significant easing of community safe management measures since Mar 22 has improved business and consumer sentiment and increased activities. Leasing activity in India has similarly picked up with physical occupancy at business parks improving to ~39% from <5% in FY21.
The Negatives
- China retail lagging recovery. Due to China's zero COVID-19 policy, China has not fully reopened since the start of the pandemic. While tenant sales in Singapore have recovered 29.4% YoY for 9M22, tenant sales in China declined 13.3%. Similarly, shopper traffic in China has declined 20.8% in China compared to an increase of 21.5% in Singapore. Occupancy at Chinese malls has dipped to 92% (2Q22: 92%), compared to the 97% retail occupancy for
Singapore.
- Macro-economic and geopolitical headwinds slowing fund generation and acquisition momentum. Inflation, rising interest rates and the Russia-Ukraine conflict have resulted in more circumspect behaviour and higher required returns for capital investors, limiting the assets eligible to seed funds. While USD-denominated capital has taken a wait-and-see approach towards RMB investments, CLI’s RMB fund management license allows it to tap local capital. However, continued lockdowns and tightened restrictions in China have impeded business discussions and may delay planned transactions.
Outlook
CLI’s real estate investment and lodging management business should continue to recover on the back of further easing of travel and mobility restrictions. After having divested S$2.4bn YTD, CLI is on track to hit its annual divestment target of S$3bn. However, its 10% FUM growth target may be at risk given the current macro-economic and geopolitical headwinds which have resulted in more circumspect behaviour among capital investors. Prolonged lockdowns in Shanghai and Beijing may also delay planned transactions.
Maintain ACCUMULATE with unchanged SOTP TP of S$4.12
We maintain our ACCUMULATE recommendation with an unchanged SOTP target price of S$4.12. We raise FY22e earnings by 8% as we increase RE investment revenue estimates for FY22e. Our SOTP derived TP of S$4.12 represents an upside of 9.5% and a P/E of 16.1x. The pick-up in travel and lifting of lockdowns in China will be immediate catalysts for CLI.
The Positives
+ Fund management fee-related revenue (+21% YoY) formed 16% of revenue. PE fees (+81%) were boosted by higher transaction-related fees, which formed 51% of PE fees, while recurring PE fees remained stable and grew 2% YoY. 1H22 PE fees include performance fees of S$31mn from notable transactions such as the unwinding of CLI-managed CapitaLand Vietnam Commercial Value-Added Fund (CVCVF) on Jan 22 and the reduction in an equity stake in Athena LP on Feb 22. CLI’s listed funds posted +7% and -15% growth in recurring and transaction-related fees respectively. The latter was the result of a high base in 1H21, as transactions picked up after the pandemic year.
+ Lodging segment recovering steadily. Lodging management fees rose 37% on recovering operating performance as well as 8.2k/4.5k new units turning operational in FY21/1H22. RevPAU grew 44% as average daily rates grew 21% and portfolio occupancy increased 9%. Recovery was seen across all CLI’s key markets, except China, with the strongest RevPAU recovery in Europe (+228%) and Singapore (+54%). The group also signed 4.5k keys in 1H22, ~54.9% of the number of keys signed in FY21, bringing the number of keys signed to 139k.
+ Real estate investment business (REIB) grew 44% YoY, on the back of reopening in most of CLI's markets, except for China and Japan. Significant easing of community safe management measures since Mar 22 has improved business and consumer sentiment and increased activities. Leasing activity in India has similarly picked up with physical occupancy at business parks improving to ~35% from <5% in FY21. Due to China's zero COVID-19 policy, Shanghai was placed under lockdown since Mar 22 due to the spike in COVID cases. This has stalled leasing activity and has resulted in rental rebates (~1.2 months) given to affected tenants in 2Q22. For context, 15 of CLI's assets are in China, representing 34% of its China exposure.
The Negative
- Macro-economic and geopolitical headwinds slowing fund generation and acquisition momentum. Inflation, rising interest rates and the Russia-Ukraine conflict have resulted in more circumspect behaviour and higher required returns for capital investors, limiting the assets eligible to seed funds. While USD-denominated capital has taken a wait-and-see approach towards RMB investments, CLI’s RMB fund management license allows it to tap local capital. However, lockdowns and tightened restrictions in Shanghai and Beijing have impeded business discussions and may delay planned transactions if lockdowns persist.
Outlook
CLI’s real estate investment and lodging management business should continue to recover on the back of further easing of travel and mobility restrictions. Having divested S$1.6bn YTD, CLI is on track to hit its annual divestment target of S$3bn. However, its 10% FUM growth target may be at risk given the current macro-economic and geopolitical headwinds which have resulted in more circumspect behaviour among capital investors. Prolonged lockdowns in Shanghai and Beijing may also delay planned transactions.
The Positives
+ Fund management fee-related revenue (+28% YoY) formed 20% of revenue. PE fees (+127%) were boosted by higher transaction-related fees, which formed 61% of PE fees, while recurring PE fees grew 21% YoY. Notable transactions include the unwinding of CLI-managed CapitaLand Vietnam Commercial Value-Added Fund (CVCVF) in Jan 22 and reduction in equity stake in Athena LP in Feb 22, which realised IRRs 200% and 60% above their respective project IRRs and generated transaction fees. Post-quarter, the PE fund holding 79 Robinson Road divested the asset to CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT SP, BUY, TP: S$2.46) and another CLI-managed PE fund, COREF, realising c.S$72mn in divestment gains. CLI’s listed funds posted +13% and -48% growth in recurring and transaction-related fees. The latter was the result of a high base in 1Q21, as transactions picked up after the pandemic year.
+ Lodging segment recovering steadily. Lodging management fees rose 31% on recovering operating performance as well as 8.2k/2.2k new units turning operational in FY21/1Q22. RevPAU grew +34% as average daily rates grew 14% and portfolio occupancy increased from 48% to 57%. Recovery was seen across all CLI’s key markets, except China, with strongest RevPAU recovery in Europe (+168%) and Singapore (+40%). The group also signed 3.2k keys during the quarter, c.24.7% the number of keys signed in FY21, bringing the number of keys signed to 135k.
+ Real estate investment business (REIB) grew 28% YoY, on the back of reopening in most of CLI's markets, with the exception of China and Japan. Significant easing of community safe management measures since Mar 22 has improved business and consumer sentiment and increased activities. Leasing activity in India has similarly picked up with physical occupancy at business parks improving to 15-30% from <5% in FY21. Due to China's zero COVID-19 policy, Shanghai was placed under lockdown since Mar 22 due to the spike in COVID cases. This has stalled leasing activity and will likely result in some rental rebates given to affected tenants in 2Q22, in line with the PRC government’s messaging to its state-owned enterprises. For context, 15 of CLI's assets are in China, representing 34% of its China exposure.
The Negatives
- Macro-economic and geopolitical headwinds slowing fund generation and acquisition momentum. Inflation, rising interest rates and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has resulted in a more circumspect behaviour and higher required returns for capital investors, limiting the assets eligible to seed funds. While USD-denominated capital has taken a wait-and-see approach towards RMB investments, CLI’s RMB fund management license allows it to tap local capital. However, lockdowns and tightened restrictions in Shanghai and Beijing have impeded business discussions and may delay planned transaction if lockdowns persist.
Outlook
CLI’s real estate investment and lodging management business should continue to recover on the back of further easing of travel and mobility restrictions. Having divested S$1.6bn YTD, CLI is on track to hitting its annual divestment target of S$3bn. However its 10% FUM growth target may be at risk given the current macro-economic and geopolitical headwinds which have resulted in more circumspect behaviour amongst capital investors. Prolonged lockdowns in Shanghai and Beijing may also delay planned transactions.
Maintain ACCUMULATE; SOTP TP raised from S$4.05 to S$4.12
We raise our FY22e PATMI estimate from S$1,218 to SS$1,234 on higher fund management margins. The SOTP TP is up due to higher investment management PATMI. The pick-up in travel and lifting of lockdowns in China are immediate catalysts for CLI.
The Positives
+ Stellar year of capital recycling; driving 9M21 fee-related earnings (+34%) and funds under management (+10%). CLI divested S$13.6bn in FY21 at an average 13.1% premium to book value, crystalising S$616mn in portfolio gains. This was 4.5x higher than the S$3.0bn divested in FY20 and higher than the 8-10% premium CLI has achieved in the last 3-5 years. c.82% of divestments were converted into FUM, helping CLI to achieve its 10% p.a. FUM growth target. CLI incepted seven new private funds in FY21, raising more than S$1.4bn from external parties. Fee-related earnings (FRE) grew 34% YoY to S$409mn, bolstered by transaction-driven fees which accounted for 18% of FRE. Recurring earning accounted for the remaining 82% of FRE, which grew 17% YoY. Capital recycling also allowed CLI to rebalance its portfolio into new economy assets. c.70% of assets divested were integrated development assets, while 56% of S$6.8bn in investment were in new economic assets, which include data centres, business parks and logistics assets.
+ Lodging segment recovering steadily. RevPAU rose 19% YoY, as occupancy improved to c.60%, up from c.50% in FY20. Revenue from the lodging segment grew 27%, on the back of recovery in operations and 8.2k keys turning operational. CLI signed 15k new keys, up from 14k keys signed in FY20, growing the number of keys under management by 8% to 133k keys. CLI is on track to meet its FY23 target of 160k keys under management.
+ China showing recovery; Singapore stabilising. Occupancy across retail, office and new economy assets in China improved 3-4ppts YoY on the back of sustained reopeneing. Occupancy at Singapore retail and office assets fluctuated 1-2ppts YoY, still impacted by the periodic tightening of restriction. Occupancy at new economy asset was up 2ppts with positive reversions recrossed across multiple asset types.
The Negatives
- Occupancy in India business and logistic parks dipped 8ppts YoY from 93% to 85%. While presented as one of CLI’s core markets, India represents <3% of CLI’s FY21 EBITDA. CLI secured positive reversions on leases signed during the year, however, occupancy in India business and logistic parks dipped 8ppts YoY. This contrasts with the improving occupancy seen across the new economy assets in China and Singaopore, which saw occupancy improve 3ppts to 94% and 90% respectively.
Outlook
CLI’s property portfolio continues to recover on the back of a reopening and return-to-normalcy. CLI maintains its S$3bn p.a. divestment target while growing FUM by 10% p.a.. At current growth rates, CLI is on track to hitting its 2023 lodging target of 160k keys under management and S$100bn 2024 FUM target. This will increase the proportion of fee-related earnings for CLI, which currently account for 40% of operating PATMI.
As CLI pushes to grow PE FUM, new funds will adopt a traditional PE fee structure which includes an ongoing management fee based on committed capital as well as carry fees which are tied to the performance of the fund manager. As CLI’s private fund business is less established compared to its track record as a manager of listed funds, CLI is prepared to take up to a 20% stake in newly incepted private funds as a show of confidence and alignment of interest with its third-party equity providers.
The Positives
+ Active capital recycling, driving 9M21 fund management fee-related earnings (+34%) and funds under management (+9%). CLI divested S$12.3bn as at 10M21, 4x higher than the S$3.0bn in FY20. Assets were divested at an average of 13.5% above fair value, higher than the 10-11% premium CLI has achieved in the last 3-5 years. Capital recycling also allowed CLI to rebalance its portfolio into new economy assets. c.78% of assets divested were integrated development assets such as the Raffles City projects in China, while 69% of S$5.3bn in total investment were in new economic assets, which include data centres, business parks and logistics assets. CLI incepted seven new private funds in 9M21, five of which were incepted in 3Q21, raising more than S$1.4bn from external parties. New investments and inception of funds grew funds under management (FUM) by 9% since Dec21, from S$77.6bn to S$84.3bn. 9M21 fund management fee-related earnings grew by S$74.2mn or 34% YoY; 70% of the growth attributed to higher transaction-driven fees due to asset recycling.
+ Lodging segment recovering steadily, office and new economy resilient. 3Q21 RevPAU up 12%/33% QoQ/YoY; occupancy improved YoY from 50% to 60%. The recovery in operations, together with 5,300 units (4.1% of signed units) turning operational, resulted in a 23.1% YoY growth in lodging fee income for 9M21. Occupancy for the office and new economy sectors has been resilient, remaining above 90% on average.
The Negatives
- Malaysia retail lagging recovery, having been under strict movement control for most of 2021. While tenant sales in Singapore and China have recovered 13.8% and 14.3% YoY for 9M21, tenant sales in Malaysia declined 15.0%. Occupancy at Malaysian malls has fallen c.10ppts to 84.3% (FY19: 94.3%). This compares to the 96.4% and 93.9% retail occupancy for Singapore and China.
Outlook
Balance sheet heavy, but critical for growing FUM. CLI is relatively balance sheet heavy compared to other REIMs. Its net debt-to-equity ratio of 0.49x is higher than that of its peers, which range 0.25-0.3x. However, having a larger balance sheet is critical for CLI as it is trying to grow its private fund business. It allows CLI to pick up assets opportunistically, incubating and using them to seed new funds, thereby growing FUM. As CLI’s private fund business is less established compared to its track record as a manager of listed funds, CLI is prepared to take up to 20% stake in newly incepted private funds as a show of confidence and alignment of interest with its third-party equity providers. CLI is on track to reaching its 2024 FUM target of S$100bn.
CLI’s property portfolio continues to recover on the back of a reopening and return-to-normalcy. The investment management and lodging platform enjoys growing demand from private capital and lodging owners. The divestment of partial stakes in six Raffles City China assets to China Ping An has triggered reverse enquiries from several Chinese investors looking to create permanent investment vehicles. The stars are aligning for CLI, which secured its private equity fund manager status in China for RMB capital raising, a previously untapped capital market for CLI.
Maintain ACCUMULATE and SOTP TP of S$4.00
No change in our estimates. Our SOTP derived TP of S$4.00 represents an upside of 18.9%. CLI is trading at 16.7x P/E; we are forecasting FY21e dividend yield of 2.4%.
Investment Thesis
Segmental Breakdown
CLI’s revenue is categorised into fee-income and real estate investment.
FAUM has grown at 5-year CARG of 11% (Figure 2), largely attributed to the growth in listed funds AUM and the acquisition of Ascendas-Singbridge. CLI is still S$17bn shy of its 2024 FAUM target of S$100bn. Going forward, CLI hopes to capture private capital demand for real estate products via its private funds. CLI has brought on two new senior hires to spearhead the growth in private funds.
In June 2021, CLI obtained its registered Private Equity Fund Manager status in China, which will allow it to carry out RMB-denominated capital raising. The group aims to launch its first RMB-denominated fund product in 4Q21. CLI launched two funds YTD; a S$400mn CapitaLand India Logistics Fund II in May21 and its second Korea Data Centre Fund in Jun21 raising S$400mn from third party investors.
We value the fund management business using the P/E given the stability of fee income, applying a 16x P/E multiple, the average amongst comaprable real estate investment manager peers, which have traded between 12.3x-25.1x P/E pre-pandemic.
The Ascott Limited (TAL) is a global, long-stay lodging operating platform with an asset-light model. Of its 128,500 keys under management, 80% are managed units owned by third parties. Brands under TAL include Ascott, Citadines, Somerset, Quest and Lyf, which operate mainly longer-stay, serviced residence, business hotels and co-living assets. Over the past three years, TAL has expanded into adjacent sectors such as the purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA) and multifamily/rental housing asset classes. The clientele for these assets have a longer average length-of-stay between 3-24 months. The investment proposition of long-stay asset classes was tested and validated during the pandemic – SRs outperformed their hotels peers while the multifamily and PBSAs maintained occupancies above 95%.
On track to hit 160,000 keys target by 2023. TAL has been growing the number of keys signed at a 5-year CAGR of 24%. Despite the pandemic, a record 14,000 keys were signed in FY20. FY21’s signings are likely to keep pace with FY20’s numbers – TAL signed 8,300 keys year-to-July, representing a 40% YoY growth in new signings compared to the same period in FY20. TAL will need to grow the number of keys signed at a CAGR of 8.2% p.a., or c.12,500 keys/year, to hit meet its 160,000 keys target.
Unrealised earning potential. Of its 128,500 keys signed, c.47% are still under development and have not begun contributing to revenue. The management expects to reap S$20-25mn per 10,000 stabilised units. We expect fee income to grow at a 5-year CAGR of 16%, on the back of hospitality recovery and more units turning operational.
Due to the varied geographical portfolios of its comparable peers, we elected to use the EV/EBITDA multiple as a tax-neutral valuation method for the lodging segment. Comaprable lodging operator peers have traded between 12.6x-24.7x EV/EBITDA. As such, we applied an average EV/EBITDA ratio of 16x for our valuation of the lodging platform.
CLI holds stablised office, retail, industrial, hospitality and mixed-use assets on its books and through associates and joint ventures. These assets provide recurring rental income for CLI and are expected to be monetised over the next 3-4years to CLI’s REITs, private funds or third-party buyers.
CLI manages six listed funds with equity stakes varying between 18.0%-40.7%, receiving distributions based on the number of units owned. We value this segment using PSR’s and consensus target prices of the respective REITS.
CLI manages more than 20 private funds including Core and Core Plus, Value Add, Opportunistic and Alternative funds. Value Add and Opportunistic funds are expected to deliver higher return and represent c.90% of the funds managed. The remaining c.10% are Core and Core Plus funds which invest in stabilised assets. The group maintains a between 6.5%-55.0% stake in the funds. We value this segment based on the RNAV of CLI’s respective stakes in the funds.
Outlook
CLI’s property portfolio continues recovers on the back of a reopening and return-to-normalcy, while its investment management and lodging platform continues to receive growing demand from private capital and lodging owners. The group remains committed to its S$3bn divestment target - monetising its balance sheet and rebalancing into new economy assets to keep its portfolio future ready.
Initiate with ACCUMULATE; SOTP TP of S$4.00
We adopt a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation for CLI post restructuring. Our SOTP derived TP of S$4.00 represents an upside of 19.6% from current market price. CLI is trading at 16.0x P/E; we are forecasting FY21e dividend yield of 2.4%.