• 1H26 revenue/PATMI were below expectations at 46%/44% of our FY26e forecast. Underlying PATMI in 1H26 declined 14.3% YoY to S$84.8mn. Taxi operations remain the weakest segment, with EBIT plunging 46% YoY. Operating conditions worsened in Australia and the UK. Interim dividend was unchanged at 3.91 cents.
• Taxi earnings continue to suffer. Singapore taxi fleet is shrinking, Australia is facing soft consumer demand and UK premium services are disrupted by the Middle East conflict. UK is the bright spot, with repricing of London bus contracts to higher margins. It has pushed public transport earnings 11% higher in 1H26.
• We reduce our FY26e earnings by 7% to S$177mn. We expect the weakness in taxi to continue into 2H26.  Our DCF target price is lowered to S$1.21 (prev. S$1.35), and NEUTRAL recommendation is maintained. The structural headwinds for taxis are worsening and spreading. The ~S$850mn worth of acquisitions made by Comfort has not delivered the turnaround in earnings.

The Positive
+ London bus contracts still the bright spot. The recontracting of Metroline London
contracts to higher margins has helped push UK earnings higher. Around 70% of the repricing
has been completed.

The Negative

- Taxi operations worsen especially in the UK. Weakness in taxis persists, with earnings
plunging 46% YoY to S$36.6mn in 1H26. Fleet size is shrinking in both Singapore and
Australia. Earnings further suffered from UK’s A2B premium taxi service as a major Middle
Eastern airline customer cancelled flights or with reduced capacity.

• 1Q26 revenue/PATMI were below expectations at 22%/19% of our FY26e forecast. Underlying PATMI in 1Q26 fell 16% YoY to S$40.5mn. The largest drag to earnings was the 45% YoY collapse in operating earnings to S$17.5mn.
• The two weak spots in 1Q26 earnings were (i) Declines in Singapore and Australia taxi fleet of 7% and 10% YoY, respectively, and overall weakness in consumer spending on private hire; (ii) Disruption to Middle East airlines’ airport transfer bookings in the UK.
• We lower our FY26e earnings by 11% to S$190.6mn. Our DCF target price is lowered to S$1.35, and recommendation downgraded from ACCUMULATE to NEUTRAL. Higher fuel prices, additional surcharges, and weaker economic conditions will soften spending on premium transportation services such as taxis. Taxi operations face the additional pressure of intense competition and declining fleet size. Comfort is transitioning to a more hybrid P2P model in Singapore that includes autonomous technology. 

The Positive
+ Improving margins of London bus contracts. Metroline London contract margins continue
to improve. It was not particularly impactful in 1Q26 results, with UK and public transport
margins down YoY.

The Negative
- Taxi earnings decline intensifies. Taxi operating profit plunged 45% YoY to S$17.5mn.
Weakness was from a decline in taxi fleet size in Singapore and Australia, a fall in Addison
Lee airport transfers for a Middle East airline in the UK and overall contraction in consumer
spending on taxi services.

• FY25 revenue/PATMI were within expectations at 101%/97% of our FY25e forecast. Underlying net profit in 4Q25 declined 2% YoY to S$56mn. Taxi operating earnings declined 20% YoY to S$28.8mn.
• The taxi fleet in Singapore is shrinking at a faster pace. 4Q25 taxi fleet declined 8.7% YoY, double the 4.1% fall in 4Q24. Taxi rental is a high-margin segment. There are no indications that the contraction will stabilise as competition for drivers intensifies. 
• We lower our FY26e earnings by 11% to S$215mn. Our DCF target price is lowered to S$1.50, and ACCUMULATE recommendation is maintained. Earnings will be supported by continued London bus repricing, improvement in Australian driver shortages, and Manchester bus and Stockholm rail contracts. However, the loss of bus packages and a fall in the Singapore taxi fleet will be major pressure points on earnings. Comforts pay an attractive dividend yield of 6%.

• 9M25 revenue was within expectations, but net profit was below. Revenue/PATMI were 77%/68% of our FY25e forecast. Underlying net profit rose 2.5% YoY to S$57.2mn. Most divisions were performing weaker than expected due to soft macro conditions in the UK, driver shortages in Australia, and a sharper contraction in the Singapore taxi fleet.
• UK continues to deliver the growth with operating profit in 3Q25 rising 48% to S$32.7mn (or up 18% excluding acquisitions)—repricing of London bus routes to higher margins supported growth. CMAC's contribution was weaker due to fewer travel disruptions.
• We reduce our FY25e forecast by 8% to S$213.7mn as we lower operating margins and raise interest expenses. Our DCF target price is lowered to S$1.62 (prev. S$1.68) and ACCUMULATE recommendation is maintained. London bus repricing, resolution of Australian driver shortages, and new Manchester bus and Stockholm rail contracts will drive earnings growth for Comfort. Growth will be offset by a decline in taxi and bus profitability in Singapore.

• 1H25 revenue was within expectations, but net profit was below due to amortisation of acquisition intangibles. Revenue/PATMI were 46%/40% of our FY25e forecast. Acquisitions and repricing of London bus routes drove underlying earnings growth of 7% YoY to S$99mn in 1H25. Interim dividend rose 11.1% YoY to 3.91 cents.
• UK operating profit in 1H25 spiked 3-fold to S$33.9mn due to the acquisition of Addison Lee taxi and repricing of London bus routes. However, part of the earnings growth was offset by higher interest expense and amortisation of intangibles acquired.
• We lower our FY25e earnings forecast by 7% to S$231mn to incorporate the non-cash amortisation expense and higher interest expense. Our DCF target price of S$1.68 is unchanged. We lower our recommendation from BUY to ACCUMULATE due to recent share price performance. ComfortDelGro is delivering stable growth through re-pricing of contracts, acquisitions, and new contracts. We expect a stronger 2H25 earnings driven by seasonally stronger CMAC and continued repricing of London bus routes. FY26 earnings will be supported by contributions from recent contract wins, namely Manchester bus and Stockholm rail.

• 1Q25 results were within expectations. Revenue/PATMI was 24%/20% of our FY25e forecast. 1Q is typically a seasonally lower due to lower contributions from Scotland coach services and CMAC.
• 1Q25 operating earnings rose 45% YoY to S$81.5mn. Excluding acquisitions, operating earnings rose 27.5% YoY, due to a significant turnaround in the UK. Operating earnings spiked from S$0.9mn to S$8mn with the renewal of London bus routes and the contribution from the new Metroline Manchester contract.
• We maintain our FY25e forecast and DCF target price of S$1.68. Our BUY recommendation is unchanged. ComfortDelGro is delivering more stable and visible growth with acquisitions, new and re-pricing of bus contracts in the UK. The dividend yield of 6% is attractive as the company maintains a high payout ratio of 80%. 

• FY24 results beat expectations. Revenue/PATMI was 104%/112% of our FY24e forecast.  UK operating profit spiked 4-fold to S$18mn from the renewal of higher margin bus contracts and acquisition of CMAC and Addison Lee.
• Excluding acquisitions, we estimate operating earnings declined 3% YoY in 4Q24 to S$77.3mn. Weakness was largely in the China taxi and the Singapore rail operations. Dividends per share rose 16.7% YoY to 7.77 cents, as the company continues with its aggressive 80% payout ratio. ComfortDelgro pays an attractive forward yield of 6.4%.
• We raised our FY25e revenue and PATMI by 4%/9% respectively. Our DCF target price has been increased to S$1.68 (prev. S$1.63) and we upgrade our recommendation to BUY from ACCUMULATE. Growth drivers in FY25e include the Addison Lee acquisition, improving Singapore rail earnings, expanding UK bus routes and margins, and better availability of bus drivers in Australia. Taxi operations will face competition in the near term from new ride-hailing operators in Singapore and softer revenue in China due to weak economic conditions.

• 9M24 revenue was above expectation at 80% FY24e due to CMAC acquisitions. PATMI was within our expectations at 74%. 3Q24 PATMI rose 15% YoY. Profitability in Australia has suffered due to bus driver shortages collapsing margins.
• Excluding CMAC and A2B acquisition, total EBIT growth was 8% YoY, led by higher margins from repricing of UK bus operations. The largest drag was Australia, where EBIT collapsed 51% YoY after removing A2B due to bus driver shortages.
• We raised our FY24e revenue and PATMI by 9%/1% respectively. We maintain our DCF target price of S$1.63 but downgrade our recommendation from BUY to ACCUMULATE due to share price performance. Earnings growth is dependent on recent acquisitions at the expense of higher gearing. Organic growth drivers have largely stalled except for the repricing of London bus routes, which is starting to contribute materially this quarter. We believe the acquisition of CMAC and, recently, Addison Lee is earnings accretive. Both acquisitions allow the company to enter Europe's premium point-to-point transportation and accommodation service industry. We await the potential synergies from the S$750mn worth of acquisition.

• 1H24 results were within our expectations. Revenue and PATMI were 52%/45% of our FY24e forecast. 2Q24 net profit rose 18% YoY driven by a strong turnaround in UK bus and Singapore taxi businesses. Interim dividend increased 21% to 3.52 cents.
• Around half of 2Q24 EBIT growth was from UK bus operations. It turned around from losses to a 3% operating margin. Taxi earnings spiked 48% YoY to S$38.3mn on the back of higher Zig ride-hailing commissions and platform fees. Excluding acquisitions, Australia's earnings in 2Q24 declined 26% YoY.
• Our FY24e earnings and DCF target price of S$1.63 is unchanged. We maintain our BUY recommendation. The re-contracting of London bus routes over the next few quarters will provide strong earnings growth and visibility. Another boost will be a seasonal uptick in earnings from CMAC Group in 2H24. The Singapore taxi business is facing renewed ride-hailing competition. However, higher taxi fares and commission (from end-2023) will provide earnings support in 2H24.  The weakness remains in Singapore rail, which is hardly profitable, and the margins in Australia are declining.

• 1Q24 results were within our expectations. Revenue and PATMI were 25%/20% of our FY24e forecast. 1Q24 net profit increased 24% YoY to S$40.6mn.
• Taxi operations enjoyed the strongest growth with a 39% YoY jump in 1Q24 earnings. Public transportation continues to earn paltry operating margins of 3%, dragged down by lower margin contract renewals in Australia. 1Q is typically the weakest seasonally.
• We maintain our FY24e and DCF target price of S$1.63. Our BUY recommendation is unchanged. Earnings growth is still underway led by higher platform fees and commission charged by Zig Singapore, continuous margin improvement from UK bus re-contracting and expansion, lower taxi rebates, contribution from CMAC acquisition and increased taxi fleet size in China and volume improvement in Singapore rail operations. Australia is the weak spot due to lower margin bus contract renewals.

The Positive

+ Operating leverage from Zig platform. Taxi earnings jumped around 39% YoY to S$23mn. The rise was due to higher commission rates and platform fee charged on the Zig ride-hailing app. Another boost to earnings was the turnaround in China from lower rental discounts.

The Negative

- Decline in Australia earnings. Australia's operating earnings declined by 16% to S$9.2mn. Lower margins in public bus renewals especially in Sydney and other New South Wales routes dragged earnings lower.