CapitaLand Ascott Trust – Resilience from stable income sources

 


The Positives
+ Resilient performance despite geopolitical headwinds. Excluding acquisitions,
divestments, and properties undergoing AEI, 1Q26 portfolio RevPAU grew 1% YoY on a
same-store basis, with all key markets registering RevPAU growth. On a same-store
basis, Australia, Japan, Singapore, the UK, and the USA recorded RevPAU increases of
7%, 3%, 2%, 1%, and 7%, respectively. We expect low single-digit RevPAU growth in
FY26, supported by improving occupancy and stronger performance in the USA amid the
upcoming FIFA World Cup 2026. In addition, the U.S. PBSA portfolio, which saw some
weakness in the academic year (AY) 2025–2026 due to increased supply in some
markets, is showing improvement for AY 2026–2027, commencing in August 2026, with
over 80% pre-leased and revenue growth expected.

+ Strong financial position with low borrowing cost. The effective borrowing cost
declined 0.1 ppt QoQ to 2.8% and is expected to remain stable for FY26e, with 78% of
debt on fixed rates. S$689mn of debt, or 21% of total debt, is due for refinancing in 2026.
Gearing is healthy at 38.9%, and the interest coverage ratio is at 3 times.

The Negative

- nil

CapitaLand Ascott Trust – Stable DPU for 2026

 

 

 

 

 

The Positives
+ All key markets registered YoY RevPAU growth on a same-store basis in 4Q25.
Australia, Singapore, and the USA recorded RevPAU increases of 8%, 8% and 9%,
respectively, while Japan and the UK reported RevPAU declines of 42% and 2%,
respectively (Figure 1). Japan’s performance was impacted by acquisitions and
divestments, while the UK was affected by the winding down of The Cavendish London
in preparation for AEI. On a same-store basis, Japan’s RevPAU rose 11% YoY, and the
UK’s increased 10%. We expect low-single-digit RevPAU growth in FY26, supported by
improving occupancy.

+ Strong financial position. The effective borrowing cost was unchanged QoQ at 2.9% and
is expected to remain stable for FY26e, with 78% of debt on fixed rates. Gearing
improved from 39.3% to 37.7% QoQ following the repayment of debt using divestment
proceeds. The interest coverage ratio remains healthy at 3 times.

CapitaLand Ascott Trust – Committed to maintaining stable dividends

 

CapitaLand Ascott Trust – Committed to stable DPU despite upcoming AEIs

CapitaLand Ascott Trust – Downside protected from stable income sources

 

CapitaLand Ascott Trust – Growth on all cylinders

 

 

CapitaLand Ascott Trust – Portfolio reconstitution efforts bearing fruit

CapitaLand Ascott Trust – Olympics to support stronger 2H24

▪ 1H24 DPU of 2.55 cents (-8% YoY) was in line with expectations and formed 43% of our
FY24e forecast, with seasonally stronger performance expected in the second half of the
year. 1H24 revenue increased by 11% YoY due to stronger performance of the existing
portfolio and contributions from new acquisitions, partially offset by divestments and
foreign currency exchange. Despite stable distributable income YoY, DPU was down due
to the enlarged share base from the equity fundraising exercise in 3Q23.
▪ 2Q24 portfolio RevPAU rose 4% YoY on a high base to S$155, reaching 102% of pre-
COVID 2Q19 levels. This was attributable to higher room rates; 2Q24 average portfolio
occupancy was stable YoY at 75%.
▪ Maintain BUY with an unchanged DDM-TP of S$1.04. We increase our FY24e/25e DPU
estimates by 1%/4% on stronger operating performance in Japan and France, partially
offset by higher interest expense. CLAS remains our top pick in the sector owing to its
mix of stable and growth income sources and geographical diversification, which provide
resilience amidst global uncertainties. Growth in RevPAU going forward will be driven
by portfolio occupancy as average daily room rates (ADR) stabilise. The current share
price implies an FY24e/25e dividend yield of 6.6%/7.1%.

 

 

CapitaLand Ascott Trust – Occupancy to improve with ADRs stabilising

 

The Positives

 

 

 

The Negatives

CapitaLand Ascott Trust – Further upside from occupancy growth

 

 

 

The Positives

 

 

 

 

The Negatives

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