• 2Q26 revenue met our expectations, with 1H26 revenue/PATMI at 45%/31% of our FY26e estimates. We expect revenue and PATMI to be backloaded into 2H26e driven by summer travel demand and higher operating leverage.
• We continue expecting FY26e group revenue rising 13% YoY to US$13.8bn. Major event pipelines include the Tour de France in Jul and NASCAR across the US through Nov 2026, followed by LaLiga in Spain from August. These events will drive more local listings and higher booking activity across host cities. Continuous growth is driven by emerging markets (Latin America and APAC), while Airbnb Services expands its portfolio.
• We downgrade our recommendation from NEUTRAL to REDUCE due to recent share price performance. We raise our DCF target price to US$158.00 (prev. US$136.00) following an increase in the terminal growth rate, g, to 4.0% (prev. 3.5%), reflecting easing booking disruptions in EMEA and improving booking and ADR growth. Recent rally has pushed ABNB to a premium valuation, trading at 30.9x PE versus its 2-year historical +1 SD of 29.6x. APAC and Latin America are growing at 2x the rate of mature markets but remain small enough to offset the slowdown, leaving group sales growth hinged on North America. New businesses beyond rentals offer longer-term upside but are unlikely to be material over the next 3-5 years.

The Positives
+ Higher booking volume. Revenue slightly beat consensus of US$3.58bn, driven by a 10%
increase in booking volume. Strength in the US market offset booking cancellations in EMEA
due to the conflict in the Middle East. Higher booking volume was driven by 1) the broader
rollout of new initiatives in the US, including Reserve Now, Pay Later (zero upfront payment)
and greater price transparency from a simplified fee structure; 2) the 2026 FIFA World Cup,
hosted across 16 North American cities (44% of 2Q26 revenue); and 3) AI making booking
easier by highlighting homes, hotels, and services that match each guest’s preferences.

+ ADR strengthens. LTM Average daily rates (ADR) growth was 6.3%, the highest since 3Q22.
In the largest market, North America, ADR rose 7%, driven by price appreciation and a
favourable mix shift, as growth in short-term stays and entire homes outpaced growth in
long-term stays. Short-term rentals typically command higher rates. The shift from a split
fee structure to a single service fee carried by the host improved hosts’ pricing
competitiveness and increased price transparency for guests, with ~50% of active listings
now under the new structure. Forex tailwinds, as foreign currencies strengthened against
the US dollar, also supported ADR growth (+1%).

• 1Q26 met expectations, with revenue and PATMI at 20%/5% of FY26e. We expect PATMI to be 2H26 weighted, driven by summer travel demand and operating leverage.
• We expect FY26e revenue to grow 13% YoY to US$13.8bn, supported by events like the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America and the rollout of initiatives such as Reserve Now, Pay Later, simplified fees, and updated cancellation policies. APAC and Latin America should sustain high-teens growth, but North America remains the key driver (42% of FY25 revenue vs. 19% from APAC and Latin America).
• We downgrade to NEUTRAL from ACCUMULATE, with a lower TP of US$136 (prev. US$138), following recent share price performance and higher operating expenses (+3% from prev. est.) to reflect stronger investment in new growth and Airbnb Services policy initiatives. WACC and terminal growth are maintained at 7% and 3.5%, respectively. Airbnb has durable long-term growth as a light-asset platform with scalable, low-capital growth driven by global travel demand and strong host-guest network effects.

The Positives
+ More room nights and seat bookings. Revenue grew 18% YoY to US$2.7bn, driven by a
9% increase in booking volume to 156mn, despite higher cancellations across EMEA due to
the Middle East conflict. Airbnb app nights booked rose 22% YoY, reaching 63% of total
bookings vs. 58% in the same quarter last year. Regionally, Latin America and the Asia Pacific
saw high-teens growth. Customers are booking further in advance across all regions, driven
by the Reserve Now, Pay Later payment offering.
+ ADR rises. Average daily rate (ADR) expanded 9% YoY to US$187 in 1Q26, benefiting from
FX tailwinds and strength in North America. ADR in North America (Airbnb’s largest business
region) rose 7%, driven by price appreciation and mix shift, as growth in short-term stays
and entire homes outpaced long-term stays. EMEA and Latin America saw ADR rise 15% and
10%, respectively, supported by FX.

The Negative
- Headwind from the Middle East conflict. Nights and seats booked in 2Q26e are expected
to slow slightly to +8% (+1ppt lower than 1Q26’s +9%), due to higher booking cancellations
in EMEA. We expect volatility to persist near term, though bookings could stabilise if
regional conditions improve.

• FY25 revenue met expectations at 102% of forecast, while PATMI came in slightly below at 96%. 4Q25 revenue grew 12% YoY to US$2.8bn, led by a 10% YoY surge in booking volumes. PATMI declined 26% YoY due to higher investment in new growth and policy initiatives.
• For 1Q26e, Airbnb expects revenue to grow 14–16% YoY to US$2.59–2.63bn, supported by modest ADR growth, high single-digit booking volume gains, and FX tailwinds. FY26e higher booking volume may be driven by large events i.e. Winter Olympics this quarter and 2026 FIFA World Cup across 16 North American cities from June to July.
• We upgrade to ACCUMULATE from NEUTRAL recommendation due to recent share price performance with a higher DCF target price to US$138 (prev. US$127). We rolled our valuation forward to FY26e while keeping assumptions unchanged. WACC and terminal growth are maintained at 7% and 3.5%.

The Positives
+ Higher night and seats booked. Revenue grew 12% YoY to US$2.8bn, driven by a 10%
increase in booking volume to 121.9mn, supported by strength in the US market. Growth
was supported by stronger adoption of new initiatives in the US, including 1) Reserve Now,
Pay Later (zero upfront payment), 2) simplified fee structure for greater price transparency,
and 3) updated cancellation policies. The initiatives will expand to global guests and cross
border states in the US in the coming months.

+ ADR strengthens. Average daily rate (ADR) expanded 6% YoY to US$167.5 in 4Q25, 3
points above the growth rate recorded in 4Q24. The increase was driven by longer booking
lead times, faster growth in higher-priced short-term stays (vs. 28+ day stays), and more
bookings for larger homes with four or more bedrooms.

+ Global growth continues. Nights booked in new markets are increasing twice as fast as in
core markets. Regions such as Latin America and Asia Pacific experienced mid-to-high teen
growth in nights booked, with ADR boosted by price appreciation and currency effect. Brazil,
Japan, and India are the fastest-growing countries with nights booked up 50% YoY.

• 9M24 revenue and PATMI met our expectations at 79%/83% of our FY25e forecasts. In 3Q25, revenue rose 10% YoY to US$3.7bn, mainly driven by a 5% YoY acceleration in average daily rates (ADR) across all regions.
• For 4Q25e, Airbnb expects revenue to rise 9% YoY to US$2.69bn, supported by a modest ADR increase and single-digit growth in booking volumes.
• We maintain our NEUTRAL recommendation with an unchanged target price of US$127.00. Our FY25e revenue estimates remain unchanged. Expansion markets growth remains small to offset the group revenue deceleration. Airbnb is pursuing organic growth beyond its core short-term rental business, with Airbnb Services revenue contribution expected to remain immaterial until at least FY26e.

• 2Q25 revenue was within expectations, with 1H25 revenue/PATMI was at 44%/30% of our FY25e estimates. We expect PATMI to be backloaded into 2H25e driven by summer travel demand and higher operating leverage.
• For 3Q25e, Airbnb expects revenue to rise 9% YoY to US$4.06bn. Airbnb expects encouraging demand trends, with Nights and Seats Booked continuing to accelerate sequentially across several key markets. Adj. EBITDA margin is projected to decline YoY due to continued investments.
• We upgrade our recommendation from to NEUTRAL from REDUCE due to recent price performance. We raise our DCF target price to US$127.00 (prev. US$112.00), while FY25e revenue estimates remain unchanged. We maintain a WACC of 7.0%, but raise the terminal growth rate to 3.5% (prev. 3.0%) to reflect stabilising travel demand. We expect modest sales growth through 2025, driven by stable travel demand and strong growth in Asia Pacific and Latin America. New initiatives like local experiences may take until FY26e to scale and contribute meaningfully.

• On 13 May 2025, Airbnb announced major upgrades in its Summer Release, including new services, expanded experiences, and an all-in-one app.
• The new business launch follows Airbnb’s planned FY25e CAPEX of US$200mn-250mn, aimed at expanding revenue beyond short-term rentals and generating significant revenue as they scale over the coming years.
• We maintain REDUCE with an unchanged TP of US$112.00 (WACC 7%, g 3%). We expect Airbnb to deliver a full-year adjusted EBITDA margin of at least 34.5%, despite higher spending on hiring and marketing in the first nine months of FY25e, as guided earlier in the year. However, it is still too early to assess the performance of the new business, which may take time to contribute meaningfully to ABNB’s growth, likely from FY26e onward. Combined with stalled travel demand and softer consumer sentiment, especially in the US in 2Q25e amid ongoing macro uncertainty, we expect travellers to remain cautious, adopting a wait-and-see approach.

• 1Q25 revenue was within expectations at 19% of our FY25e forecasts due to seasonality weakness, while earnings missed estimates coming in at 5% of our FY25e forecast on higher product development costs and lower interest income. We expect profitability in 2H25e to rebound strongly, driven by summer travel demand and higher operating leverage.
• For 2Q25e, Airbnb expects revenue to rise 10% YoY to US$3.02bn. Booking volumes are expected to moderate relative to 1Q25, due to softer U.S. travel demand amid macro uncertainty. Adj. EBITDA is expected to rise YoY, though margins may be flat to slightly lower, reflecting increased marketing spend tied to the new business investments for the Summer release.
• We downgrade to REDUCE from NEUTRAL recommendation due to recent price performance. We maintain our DCF target price of US$112.00 (WACC 7%, g 3%). Our FY25e revenue estimates remain unchanged while we nudge our PATMI lower by 3% to account for lower interest income. We believe valuations appear somewhat full at 34x FY25e P/E, with a FY25e earnings growth rate of ~8% YoY. This is also a significant premium to the market and online travel agency rivals, such as Booking Holdings (24x) and Expedia Group (12x).

• Accelerating double-digit growth in emerging markets (Latin America and Asia-Pacific) has driven strong growth in new users and booking volume.
• Airbnb plans to invest US$200–250mn in new businesses launching in May 2025 while maintaining strong profitability with at least a 34.5% full-year adj. EBITDA margin (as of 13 Feb’s guidance).
• We upgrade to NEUTRAL from the REDUCE recommendation following recent price performance. We reduced our DCF target price to US$112.00 (prev. US$120.00) with an unchanged WACC of 7% and a reduced terminal growth rate of 3.0% (prev. 3.5%). We remain conservative, lowering our FY25e booking volume growth by 1% to reflect macroeconomic headwinds and softening consumer demand, compounded by increased spending on new business CAPEX.

• 9M24 revenue/adj. PATMI exceeded expectations at 79%/85% of our FY24e forecasts. In 3Q24, revenue grew 10% YoY to US$3.7bn, driven by a 9% YoY increase in booking volumes due to strong summer travel demand. Adj. PATMI dropped 15% YoY to US$1.4bn due to higher marketing costs and income taxes.
• For 4Q24e, Airbnb expects revenue to rise 9% YoY to US$2.4bn. The company expects a sequential improvement in the YoY growth rate of booking volumes. However, adj. EBITDA margin is expected to contract by ~600 basis points YoY to 27%, due to higher product development and marketing expenses.
• We downgraded to REDUCE from the NEUTRAL recommendation as we account for recent share price performance. We maintain our DCF target price of US$120.00 with an unchanged WACC of 7% and a terminal growth rate of 3.5%. We nudge higher our FY24e revenue/adj. PATMI estimates by 1% to account for higher average daily rates and interest income.  We believe valuations seem quite full at 31x FY25e P/E, with FY25e earnings growth rate of ~11% YoY. It is also a significant premium to the market and OTA rivals like Booking Holdings (24x) and Expedia Group (13x).​

• 2Q24 revenue was within expectations due to seasonality weakness, while earnings was a miss on increased marketing spend and higher income taxes. 1H24 revenue/PATMI was at 44%/29% of our FY24e estimates. We expect PATMI to be backloaded into 2H24e driven by summer travel demand around the Olympics. 
• For 3Q24e, Airbnb expects revenue to rise 9% YoY to US$3.7bn. The company expects sequential moderation in the YoY growth rate of booking volumes due to slowing travel demand in the US and shortening booking windows globally. 
• We maintain NEUTRAL recommendation but lower our DCF target price to US$120.00 (prev. US$150.00). We maintain a WACC of 7.0%, but lower our terminal growth rate to 3.5% (prev. 4%) due to slowing travel demand. We cut our FY24e revenue/PATMI by 1%/9% to account for moderating travel demand and higher expenses. We expect moderating travel demand as booking patterns normalise from its post-pandemic peak.