吉利汽車 (175 HK) 處於加速電動轉型過程中

公司簡介
吉利汽車是我國自主品牌乘用車領軍企業之一,主營乘用車及核心零部件的研發、生
產和銷售,自主掌握汽車領域核心技術,廣泛佈局主流車型市場。公司旗下產品包括
吉利、幾何、領克、極氪、睿藍、銀河六大主品牌,覆蓋 A0 至 B 級乘用車市場。
投資概要
收入高增長受益於極氪帶來的單車價格抬升
吉利汽車近期公佈了 2022 年業績報告,全年實現總收入 1480 億元(人民幣,下
同),同比增加 45.6%,超越市場預期的 1324 億元(彭博一致預期);錄得股東應占
淨利 52.6 億元,同比增長 8.5%,高於於市場預期的 48.2 億元。每股收益 0.505 元,略
低於我們之前預計的 0.53 元。每股派息 0.21 港元,與上年持平。
2022 年,吉利汽車的汽車總銷量為 143 萬輛,同比增長 8%。其中,國內市場銷量增
長 2%,至 123 萬輛,出口銷量增 72%至 19.8 萬輛。受益於極氪平均訂單價格超過
33.6 萬元,平均單車銷售收入同比提升 30%,到達 10.3 萬元(丌包含睿藍,領克),
帶動公司整體收入增幅遠高於銷量增幅。
新能源轉型成本較大影響盈利能力
總毛利率下滑 3 個百分點至 14.1%,主要因原材料成本的上漲,以及新能源轉型初期
成本較高所致。公司的新能源車銷量同比增長 300%,達到 32.9 萬輛,占比由去年同
期的 6.2%提升 16.7 個百分點至 22.9%,轉型初期新能源車毛利較低,影響了整體毛利
率水平。全年來看,極氪貢獻了 318 億左右的收入,和 13.8 億的並表虧損。
費用方面,行政費用率、銷售費用率分別下降 0.8 和 0.6 個百分點。由於加大智能電動
化研發投入,研發開支增長 22.6%至 67.7 億元,其中 29%戒 19.7 億費用化。2022 年資
本開支為 103 億(2021 年資本開支 61 億),超出年初預算的 92 億,主要是由於為加
快新能源和智能化轉型,研發投入較高所致。公司在 2023 年資本開支預算為 140 億
元。隨著公司向新能源全面轉型,研發投入將繼續加大;且在新能源和智能化背景
下,行業競爭將持續加劇,預計未來幾年內公司研發支出仍將延續快速增長趨勢。

Geely (175 HK) Undergoing the period of transformation

Company Profile
Geely is one of the leading enterprises in China's self-brand passenger vehicles
manufacturers. The Company's products include six major brands: Geely, Geometry, Lynk,
Zeekr, Livan, and Galaxy, covering the A0 to B-class passenger vehicles market.
Investment Summary
The High Revenue Growth Is Attributed to the Rise in Single Vehicle Prices of Zeekr
According to the recently released FR2022 result, Geely reported a gross revenue of
RMB148 billion, up 45.6% yoy, exceeding market expectation of RMB132.4 billion
(Bloomberg consensus). It recorded a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB5.26
billion, up 8.5% yoy, higher than market expectation of RMB4.82 billion. The EPS was
RMB0.505, slightly lower than our previous estimate of RMB0.53. The dividend per share
was HK$0.21, unchanged from the previous year.
In 2022, Geely's sales volume totalled 1,430 thousand units, up 8% yoy. Specifically, the
sales volume in the domestic market increased 2% to 1,230 thousand units, while the export
sales volume surged 72% to 198 thousand units. Benefiting from the average sales price of
Zeekr exceeding RMB336 thousand, the average sales revenue from single vehicles grew by
30% year-on-year, reaching RMB103 thousand (excluding Ruilan Auto and Lynk & Co),
driving the Company's overall revenue growth to be much higher than the sales volume
growth.
The Profitability Is Largely Affected by Only the New Energy Transformation Cost
Total gross margin decreased by 3 ppts to 14.1%, mainly due to rising raw material costs and
higher new energy transformation cost in the initial stage. The Company's NEV sales volume
increased by 300% year-on-year to 329 thousand units, and the proportion climbed by 16.7
ppts to 22.9% from 6.2% in the same period last year. The low gross profit of new energy
vehicles in the initial transformation affected the overall gross margin. In 2022, Zeekr
contributed to revenue of approximately RMB31.8 billion and a consolidated loss of
RMB1.38 billion.
In terms of expenses, the administrative expense ratio and sales expense ratio decreased by
0.8 ppts and 0.6 ppts, respectively. Due to the increased R&D investment in
intelligentisation and electrification, the R&D expenses increased by 22.6% to RMB6.77
billion, of which RMB1.97 billion or 29% was expensed. Capital expenses in 2022 were
RMB10.3 billion (RMB6.1 billion in 2021), exceeding the RMB9.2 billion budgeted at the
beginning of the year, mainly due to higher R&D investment to accelerate the
transformation to new energy and intelligentisation. The Company's capital expense budget
for 2023 is RMB14 billion. With the Company's comprehensive transformation to new
energy, R&D investment will continue to increase. Amid the new energy and
intelligentisation, the competition in the industry will continue to intensify. It is expected
that the Company's R&D expenses will continue to grow rapidly in the next few years.

吉利汽車 (175 HK) 智能電動化帶動品牉高端化持續發力

投資概要
十月銷量增長勢能增強,唯新能源車有所回落
根據吉利汽車公佈的十月銷量數據,總銷量達到 152263 輛,同比顯著增長 36.4%,環
比大幅提高 16.65%,同環比增幅分別比上月提升 10.8/10.2 個百分點。公司前十個月累
計銷量 1141901 輛,同比增加 10%,完成全年 165 萬輛目標的七成。
新能源車型(包括純電、插電混動、油電混動)十月的銷量達到 32277 輛,較上月減
少 25%,占總銷量的比重 21%,較上月的 33%有所回落,主要因幾何車型銷量下降較
多。

Geely (175 HK) Intelligent Electrification Drives the Company to Make Continuous Efforts in High-end Branding

Investment Summary
The Momentum for Sales Growth Is Strengthened in October Despite a Sales Decline in
New Energy Vehicles
According to the released sales data for October, Geely Auto reported total sales volume of
152,263 units, a significant increase of 36.4% yoy and a substantial growth of 16.65% mom.
The year-on-year and month-on-month growths increased by 10.8 ppts and 10.2 ppts,
respectively from the previous month. In the first ten months, the Company sold 1,141,901
vehicles accumulatively, up 10% yoy. The Company completed 70% of the annual target of
1,650 thousand units.
The sales volume of new energy vehicles (including battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid
electric vehicles, and hybrid electric vehicles) reached 32,277 units in October, down 25%
from the previous month, accounting for 21% of the total sales volume, down from 33% in
the previous month, mainly due to a large sales decline in the Geometry models.

吉利汽車 (175 HK) 電動化轉型升級正在加速

投資概要
多重原因令銷量跑輸行業平均
根據公佈的銷量資料顯示,吉利汽車一月銷量同比下降 6.36%至 14.64 萬輛,二月的銷
量則同比增長 1.63%至 7.85 萬輛,三月則同比增長 1.14%至 10.12 萬輛,今年首季度累
計銷量 326024 輛,同比下滑 2.26%,完成全年 165 萬輛目標的 19.8%。
對比乘聯會公佈的行業資料,中國一月狹義乘用車銷量同比下降 4.4%,二月同比增長
27%,三月份同比下降 1.6%,一季度累計同比增長 8.3%。公司銷量的整體增幅低於行
業平均。我們認為主要原因在於:1)還未擺脫晶片(如車身電子穩定系統 ESP 晶片)
短缺困境,2)2022 年昡節假期較前一年提早,3)新能源車型占比較低,未能充分享
受到新能源車需求爆發的行業紅利。
銷量提升主要依靠新能源產品
分品牌來看,吉利品牌一月、二月和三月銷量分別同比下降 6.1%、3.0%和持平,其中
的高端車型中國星系列(星瑞,星越,星越 L)實現銷量 2.5 萬輛,1.4 萬輛,2.16 萬
輛,在總銷量中的比重為 17.1%,17.8%,21.35%,占比進一步提升,吉利品牌的高端
化進程穩步推進。
領克品牌分別實現 1.8 萬,1.1 萬和 1.36 萬的月銷量,同比下降 28.1%,11.0%,
17.2%,我們認為領克作為公司最高端車型,智慧化配置高導致所需晶片受短缺拖累程
度更為嚴重,且新能源車型較少是銷量表現欠佳的主要原因。
純電品牌幾何表現亮眼,銷量分別為 1.02 萬,0.77 萬輛,0.81 萬輛,分別大升
391%,863%和 334%。高端純電品牌極氪,3 月交付 1795 輛,2 月交付量 2916 輛,1
月交付 3530 輛,上市以來累計已交付 1.38 萬輛。換電品牌睿藍汽車 3 月銷量 2008
輛,2 月銷量 1618 輛,今年累計銷量 5309 輛。分市場看,出口市場表現仍舊出色,
一季度出口銷量同比升 15%,至 27417 輛。
整體來看,公司銷量提升主要依靠新能源產品銷量拉動,新能源車型的銷量占比繼續
擴大,2 月份佔比一度上升至 18.5%,而 1 月份和 3 月份佔比分別為 12.2%和 14.4%。
加大轉型升級投入,去年業績受影響下滑逾一成
根據最新公佈的財報數據,在總銷量同比增長 1%至 132.8 萬輛的前提下,2021 年公司
實現總收入同比增長 10%至人民幣 1016.1 億元,其中汽車銷售收入同比增長 5%至
877.0 億元,反映銷售結構進一步優化,剔除領克/極氪後的平均單車售價同比增長 9%
至 8.77 萬元,指導價在 10-15 萬元之間的汽車銷量占比由上一年的 25%增長至 44%,
15 萬元以上的占比由 11%提高到 22%。此外,公司錄得合計 45.3 億元的研發及技術支
援服務+智慧財產權許可收入,對業績的貢獻預計將持續。

Geely (175 HK) Electrification Upgrading Is Accelerating

Investment Summary
Sales Volume Underperforms the Industry Average for Multiple Reasons
According to the released sales data, Geely reported a sales volume of 146.4/78.5/101.2
thousand units in Jan/Feb/Mar, -6.36%/+1.63%/+1.14% yoy. In the first quarter of this year,
the cumulative sales volume was 326024 units, down 2.26% yoy. Geely completed 19.8% of
the annual target of 1,650 thousand units.
According to the information released by the CPCA, the sales volume of China's passenger
cars fell by 4.4% yoy in January, and increased by 27% yoy in February, down by 1.6% yoy in
March. The overall growth of the Geely's sales volume was below the industry average. We
think that the main reasons are listed as follows: 1) The dilemma of chip shortage (such as
body electronic stability system (ESP) chips) has not been got rid of. 2) The Chinese Spring
Festival holiday in 2022 was earlier than the previous year. 3) With a small proportion of
new energy models, the Company has not fully enjoyed the booming prosperity of new
energy vehicles.
The Sales Volume Increase Mainly Depends on New Energy Products
On a closer look at brands, Geely brand's sales volume in Jan/Feb/Mar dropped by 6.1%
/3.0%/flat yoy, respectively. In particular, the high-end models of China Star series (Xingrui,
Xingyue, and Xingyue L) recorded a sales volume of 25/14/21.6 thousand units, respectively
in Jan/Feb/Mar, accounting for 17.1%/17.8%/21.35% of the total sales, respectively. The
proportion saw a further increase. The premiumization of Geely brand was steadily
advancing.
In Jan/Feb/Mar, LYNK&CO brand reported a sales volume of 18/11/13.6 thousand units,
respectively, down 28.1%/11.0%/17.2% yoy, respectively. We think that ‘LYNK&CO’, as the
Company's high-end sub-brand, has a high level of intelligent configuration, which has led to
a more serious shortage of required chips, and the lack of new energy models, are the main
reasons for the poor performance.
‘Geometry’, Geely’s pure electric sub-brand, displayed remarkable performance. Its sales
volume in Jan/Feb/Mar was 10.2/7.7/8.1 thousand units, respectively, up 391%/863%/334%,
respectively. ‘Zeekr’, Geely’s premium pure electric brand, delivered 3,530/2,916/1,795
units in Jan/Feb/Mar. Since its launch, 13.8 thousand units have been delivered
accumulatively. ‘Ruilan’, the battery swap-enabled brand of Geely, sold 1,618/2,008 units in
Feb/Mar, with a cumulative sales volume of 5,309 units this year.
On a closer look at markets, export markets maintained outstanding performance. In 22Q1,
the export sales volume climbed to 27,417 units, up 15% yoy.
On the whole, the Company's sales volume increase was mainly driven by the sales volume
of new energy products. The proportion of the sales volume of new energy vehicles
continued to expand, rising to 18.5% at one point in February, compared with 12.2% and
14.4% in January and March, respectively.

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