Spotify Technology S.A.- Navigating AI risk with strong growth October 26, 2026 10

PSR Recommendation: ACCUMULATE Status: Downgraded
Target Price: 650.00
  • 3Q26 revenue was within expectations while 3Q26 PATMI underperformed slightly, with 9M26 revenue/PATMI at 73%/70% of our FY26e forecasts. 3Q26 revenue grew 16% YoY, primarily driven by stronger Premium revenue growth (+17% YoY), supported by both subscriber growth and higher ARPU. 3Q26 PATMI underperformed due to lower net finance income, driven by higher foreign exchange losses and a higher effective tax rate.
  • User growth remained resilient, with MAUs reaching 788mn (+11% YoY), while Premium subscribers increased to 306mn (+9% YoY).
  • We downgraded our recommendation from BUY to ACCUMULATE with an unchanged target price of US$650 due to recent share price movement. Our estimates remain unchanged, with a WACC of 7.5% and a terminal growth rate of 3.5%. SPOT is turning AI from a disruption risk into a growth and monetisation lever. AI-creation tools, audiobooks and other products with higher average revenue per user broaden the path for mid-teens revenue growth and further monetisation, extending SPOT’s lead as the world’s largest audio platform.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Positives
+ Strong Premium growth supported by subscriber additions and pricing power. Premium
revenue +17% YoY, driven by 9% subscriber growth and 7.5% ARPU expansion. (Figure 2).
Premium subscribers reached 306mn (+6mn QoQ), exceeding guidance by 1mn. We view the
resilience in Premium subscriber additions despite price increases positively, reinforcing
pricing power as SPOT’s key growth lever. Notably, SPOT has implemented three US price
hikes since 2023 with minimal disruption to subscriber growth. Management guided for a
further 10mn premium subscriber addition in 4Q26e.
+ Advertising momentum improving following platform revamp. Advertising revenue
growth accelerated to 9% YoY in 3Q26, from 3% in each of the previous two quarters,
reflecting early benefits from SPOT’s ongoing rebuild of its advertising technology stack.
Growth was primarily driven by automated biddable channels, which now account for 40% of
advertising revenue (3Q25: 30%), alongside growing podcast sponsorships. Management
expects advertising growth to continue accelerating towards double digits in 4Q26e. SPOT’s
499mn ad-supported MAU takes 63% of MAUs but generates only 10% of total revenue. We
see huge monetisation potential in the gap, e.g. a lower-priced ad-free subscription tier.
+ Navigating the AI risk well. SPOT is addressing AI-related risks through partnerships with
major record labels, including Sony, Universal Music Group and Warner Music Group, to
develop responsible AI products, alongside tighter policies against unauthorised AI voice
cloning and AI-generated spam. Meanwhile, integrations with AI platforms such as ChatGPT,
Claude and Meta’s Muse help SPOT maintain its relevance as AI reshapes music discovery.
Continued expansion into audiobooks, creator tools and the Partner Program also diversifies
its offering beyond music, strengthening user engagement and reducing its reliance on
traditional music streaming.

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About the author

Profile photo of Helena Wang

Helena Wang
Research Analyst
PSR

Helena covers Hardware/Marketplaces/ETF. Helena graduated with a master degree in Financial Technology from Nanyang Technological University

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