國泰航空 (293 HK) 去年業績靚超預期,油價飆升下,短期盈利料將承壓 April 15, 2026 3

PSR Recommendation: ACCUMULATE Status: Maintained
Target Price: HKD13.60

投資概要
去年下半年延續強勁復蘇勢頭,賺 72 億環比翻倍
國泰航空公佈 2025 年業績,集團全年錄得總收入 1167.66 億元(港元,下同),同比
增長 11.88%;股東應占溢利 108.28 億元,同比增長 9.5%,連續第三年錄得約百億穩
健盈利,經營韌性得到驗證。每股基本盈利 165.5 港仙,同比增長 10.9%;業績主要受
惠於可載量增加、客運量穩定及貨運需求強勁等因素,推動財務業績增長,惟部分增
幅因香港快運造成的乘客收益正常化及虧損所致。
集團宣佈每股派末期息 0.64 元,加上中期息 0.2 元,全年股息總額達每股 0.84 元,同
比增幅 21.74%。
下半年業績強勁勢頭持續,收入錄得 14.04%同比增幅至 624.57 億元,股東應占溢利
71.77 億元,同比增長 15.11%,環比上半年接近翻倍,除了上述提及的原因,也得益
於來自港機工程(HAECO)的一次性收益 8.8 億,以及應占聯屬公司(主要是國航和國貨
航)業績貢獻加大。如果剔除該等原因,下半年的核心股東應占溢利大約錄得 59.14
億,同比/環比分別增長 4.99%/61.98%,業績表現穩中向好。
票價紅利繼續消退,航線網絡擴張成為核心引擎
集團的客運服務收入錄得 788.48 億元,同比增長 15.0%,增速慢於客運量增長。集團
繼續逐步擴展其航線網絡,在 2025 年新增 20 個航點,使客運網絡覆蓋全球 100 多個
城市。報告期內,國泰航空本部的客運運力(可用座位千米 ASK)同比增長 25.8%,客
運量(收入乘客千米 RPK)升 28.9%,載客量達 2887 萬人次,同比升 26.5%,乘客運
載率提升 2.0 個百分點至 85.2%。
定位低成本航空的集團全資子公司香港快運,期內的運力擴充更為明顯,貢獻了 12 個
新增航點,其 ASK 同比增長 31.9%,RPK 升 25.8%,載客量達 791 萬人次,同比升
29.7%,乘客運載率同比下降 3.8 個百分點至 79.6%。
隨著全球運力供給恢復,市場競爭加劇,票價紅利繼續消退:國泰航空的單位客公里
收益(收益率)同比大幅下降 10.3%,至 60.4 港仙;香港快運的乘客收益率同比減少
15.3%至 44.2 港仙。
而受客戶旅遊目的地偏好轉變、多條新航線的開辦(尚需時間成熟),以及部分客機
因行業普遍的持續未有改善的普惠發動機問題而仍然停飛,香港快運的息稅前虧損由
去年同期的 2.04 億元,擴大至 9.96 億元。

Important Information

This report is prepared and/or distributed by Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd ("Phillip Securities Research"), which is a holder of a financial adviser’s licence under the Financial Advisers Act, Chapter 110 in Singapore.

By receiving or reading this report, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. Any failure to comply with these terms and limitations may constitute a violation of law. This report has been provided to you for personal use only and shall not be reproduced, distributed or published by you in whole or in part, for any purpose. If you have received this report by mistake, please delete or destroy it, and notify the sender immediately.

The information and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively, the “Research”) contained in this report has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities Research believes to be reliable. However, Phillip Securities Research does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied that such information or Research is accurate, complete or appropriate or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this report is subject to change, and Phillip Securities Research shall not have any responsibility to maintain or update the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith.

Any opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, valuations and prices contained in this report are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. Past performance of any product referred to in this report is not indicative of future results.

This report does not constitute, and should not be used as a substitute for, tax, legal or investment advice. This report should not be relied upon exclusively or as authoritative, without further being subject to the recipient’s own independent verification and exercise of judgment. The fact that this report has been made available constitutes neither a recommendation to enter into a particular transaction, nor a representation that any product described in this report is suitable or appropriate for the recipient. Recipients should be aware that many of the products, which may be described in this report involve significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, and that any decision to enter into transactions involving such products should not be made, unless all such risks are understood and an independent determination has been made that such transactions would be appropriate. Any discussion of the risks contained herein with respect to any product should not be considered to be a disclosure of all risks or a complete discussion of such risks.

Nothing in this report shall be construed to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any product. Any decision to purchase any product mentioned in this report should take into account existing public information, including any registered prospectus in respect of such product.

Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may provide an array of financial services to a large number of corporations in Singapore and worldwide, including but not limited to commercial / investment banking activities (including sponsorship, financial advisory or underwriting activities), brokerage or securities trading activities. Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have participated in or invested in transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this report, and may have performed services for or solicited business from such issuers. Additionally, Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have provided advice or investment services to such companies and investments or related investments, as may be mentioned in this report.

Phillip Securities Research or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report may, from time to time maintain a long or short position in securities referred to herein, or in related futures or options, purchase or sell, make a market in, or engage in any other transaction involving such securities, and earn brokerage or other compensation in respect of the foregoing. Investments will be denominated in various currencies including US dollars and Euro and thus will be subject to any fluctuation in exchange rates between US dollars and Euro or foreign currencies and the currency of your own jurisdiction. Such fluctuations may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income return of the investment.

To the extent permitted by law, Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may at any time engage in any of the above activities as set out above or otherwise hold an interest, whether material or not, in respect of companies and investments or related investments, which may be mentioned in this report. Accordingly, information may be available to Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, which is not reflected in this report, and Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may, to the extent permitted by law, have acted upon or used the information prior to or immediately following its publication. Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have issued other material that is inconsistent with, or reach different conclusions from, the contents of this report.

The information, tools and material presented herein are not directed, intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to the applicable law or regulation or which would subject Phillip Securities Research to any registration or licensing or other requirement, or penalty for contravention of such requirements within such jurisdiction.

This report is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The products mentioned in this report may not be suitable for all investors and a person receiving or reading this report should seek advice from a professional and financial adviser regarding the legal, business, financial, tax and other aspects including the suitability of such products, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of that person, before making a commitment to invest in any of such products.

This report is not intended for distribution, publication to or use by any person in any jurisdiction outside of Singapore or any other jurisdiction as Phillip Securities Research may determine in its absolute discretion.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES FOR INCLUDED RESEARCH ANALYSES OR REPORTS OF FOREIGN RESEARCH HOUSE

Where the report contains research analyses or reports from a foreign research house, please note:

  1. recipients of the analyses or reports are to contact Phillip Securities Research (and not the relevant foreign research house) in Singapore at 250 North Bridge Road, #06-00 Raffles City Tower, Singapore 179101, telephone number +65 6533 6001, in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, the analyses or reports; and
  2. to the extent that the analyses or reports are delivered to and intended to be received by any person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor, Phillip Securities Research accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the analyses or reports.

About the author

Profile photo of Zhang Jing

Zhang Jing
Phillip Securities (HK)

Bachelor Degree in Tongji University of Engineering; Master Degree in East China Normal University of finance. Currently covering the automobile and air sectors. She has years of experience in investment research and is good at combining analysis for the companies with industry prospects.

Get access to all the latest market news, reports, technical analysis
by signing up for a free account today!