業績摘要
因煤炭價格下跌,2024 年度公司銷售收入為 1245.3 億元(人民幣,下同),同比減少
6.2%,其中煤炭業務收入為 916.2 億元,同比減少 10.2%,商品煤產量達到 1.42 億
噸,同比增加 1039 萬噸,其中陝蒙基地同比增加 666 萬噸,成為貢獻最大核心增長
極,澳洲基地同比增加 343 萬噸,穩居澳洲最大專營煤炭生產商;煤化工業務收入為
252.2 億元,同比減少 4.5%,化工品產量達到 870.2 萬噸,同比增加 115 萬噸;電力
業務收入為 25.4 億元,同比減少 2.0%;其他業務收入為 51.5 億元,同比增加
196.5%。毛利為 418.3 億元,同比減少 17.3%。歸母淨利潤為 140.6 億元,同比下降
26.9%。基本每股收益為 1.42 元,同比減少 27.9%。年度合計分紅派息 0.77 元/股,
表明公司重視股東回報。
成本管控成效顯著,2025 持續推進降本增效
公司嚴格控制生產成本,控制期間費用,成效顯著,2024 年自產煤噸煤銷售成本為
345.4 元,同比下降 5.4%;甲醇單位銷售成本為 1454 元/噸,同比下降 14.6%,醋酸
單位銷售成本為 2147 元/噸,同比下降 6.8%。公司積極優化債務結構,減少財務費
用,資產負債率進一步降低,2024 年公司平均融資利率為 2.98%,降至歷史最低水
準;實施 H 股增發,共募集資金 45 億元;有效節約財務費用 8.3 億元;資產負債率
降至 63%。2025 年公司將持續推進降本增效策略,噸煤銷售成本力爭降低 3%;甲醇
銷售成本降低 60 元/噸;醋酸銷售成本不增長。綜合融資成本壓降 6%,財務費用降
低 3 億元,資產負債率力爭降至 60%以下。
斥資百億收購西北礦業,煤炭產能有望加速釋放
近日公司發佈公告,計畫斥資 140.66 億元收購控股股東山東能源集團旗下西北礦業
51%股權。目前,西北礦業下轄共 12 家煤炭企業,持有 14 宗礦業權,總核定產能為
6105 萬噸/年,擁有 10 座生產礦井,生產礦井核定產能為 3605 萬噸/年。截至 2024
年 11 月底,西北礦業評估利用的資源量為 63.52 億噸、可采儲量 36.52 億噸,煤炭
資源儲備相當豐富。此次交易有助於提高兗礦能源的營收以及淨利潤,增加公司煤炭
資源儲備,公司煤炭產能有望進一步加速釋放。
估值及投資建議
公司發佈 2025 年經營目標指引,商品煤產量達到 1.55-1.6 億噸,力爭同比增加 1300
萬噸以上,化工品產量達到 860-900 萬噸,資本性支出為 195 億元,資金來源主要是
自有資金、銀行貸款和發行債券等。中國煤炭工業協會發佈《2024 煤炭行業發展年度
報告》今年煤炭產量、消費量有望保持增長態勢,煤炭進口仍將處於高位,加之當前
全社會存煤水準較高,全年煤炭市場供需將呈現相對平衡並向寬鬆轉變的運行態勢。
因此我們認為 2025 年煤炭價格仍將呈現震盪下行態勢,但需求方面有一定支撐,因
此下行空間較小,公司煤炭業務收入有望改善。化工業務方面,公司預計 2025
年甲醇、醋酸行業產能增速放緩、將延續供需寬鬆格局,聚甲醛和己內醯胺具
價格有望維持中高位,公司化工品價格中樞總體較穩定,高端化工品支撐力較
強。
Important Information
This report is prepared and/or distributed by Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd ("Phillip Securities Research"), which is a holder of a financial adviser’s licence under the Financial Advisers Act, Chapter 110 in Singapore.
By receiving or reading this report, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. Any failure to comply with these terms and limitations may constitute a violation of law. This report has been provided to you for personal use only and shall not be reproduced, distributed or published by you in whole or in part, for any purpose. If you have received this report by mistake, please delete or destroy it, and notify the sender immediately.
The information and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively, the “Research”) contained in this report has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities Research believes to be reliable. However, Phillip Securities Research does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied that such information or Research is accurate, complete or appropriate or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this report is subject to change, and Phillip Securities Research shall not have any responsibility to maintain or update the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith.
Any opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, valuations and prices contained in this report are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. Past performance of any product referred to in this report is not indicative of future results.
This report does not constitute, and should not be used as a substitute for, tax, legal or investment advice. This report should not be relied upon exclusively or as authoritative, without further being subject to the recipient’s own independent verification and exercise of judgment. The fact that this report has been made available constitutes neither a recommendation to enter into a particular transaction, nor a representation that any product described in this report is suitable or appropriate for the recipient. Recipients should be aware that many of the products, which may be described in this report involve significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, and that any decision to enter into transactions involving such products should not be made, unless all such risks are understood and an independent determination has been made that such transactions would be appropriate. Any discussion of the risks contained herein with respect to any product should not be considered to be a disclosure of all risks or a complete discussion of such risks.
Nothing in this report shall be construed to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any product. Any decision to purchase any product mentioned in this report should take into account existing public information, including any registered prospectus in respect of such product.
Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may provide an array of financial services to a large number of corporations in Singapore and worldwide, including but not limited to commercial / investment banking activities (including sponsorship, financial advisory or underwriting activities), brokerage or securities trading activities. Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have participated in or invested in transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this report, and may have performed services for or solicited business from such issuers. Additionally, Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have provided advice or investment services to such companies and investments or related investments, as may be mentioned in this report.
Phillip Securities Research or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report may, from time to time maintain a long or short position in securities referred to herein, or in related futures or options, purchase or sell, make a market in, or engage in any other transaction involving such securities, and earn brokerage or other compensation in respect of the foregoing. Investments will be denominated in various currencies including US dollars and Euro and thus will be subject to any fluctuation in exchange rates between US dollars and Euro or foreign currencies and the currency of your own jurisdiction. Such fluctuations may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income return of the investment.
To the extent permitted by law, Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may at any time engage in any of the above activities as set out above or otherwise hold an interest, whether material or not, in respect of companies and investments or related investments, which may be mentioned in this report. Accordingly, information may be available to Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, which is not reflected in this report, and Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited to its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may, to the extent permitted by law, have acted upon or used the information prior to or immediately following its publication. Phillip Securities Research, or persons associated with or connected to Phillip Securities Research, including but not limited its officers, directors, employees or persons involved in the issuance of this report, may have issued other material that is inconsistent with, or reach different conclusions from, the contents of this report.
The information, tools and material presented herein are not directed, intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to the applicable law or regulation or which would subject Phillip Securities Research to any registration or licensing or other requirement, or penalty for contravention of such requirements within such jurisdiction.
This report is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The products mentioned in this report may not be suitable for all investors and a person receiving or reading this report should seek advice from a professional and financial adviser regarding the legal, business, financial, tax and other aspects including the suitability of such products, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of that person, before making a commitment to invest in any of such products.
This report is not intended for distribution, publication to or use by any person in any jurisdiction outside of Singapore or any other jurisdiction as Phillip Securities Research may determine in its absolute discretion.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES FOR INCLUDED RESEARCH ANALYSES OR REPORTS OF FOREIGN RESEARCH HOUSE
Where the report contains research analyses or reports from a foreign research house, please note:
本科主修市場行銷和英語,並於香港浸會大學獲得經濟學碩士學位。現為輝立証券持牌分析師,主要負責能源和公用事業等板塊的研究。曾在大型銀行、券商和資產管理公司工作,對於期貨和大宗商品衍生品領域擁有銷售、研究分析和市場推廣等工作經驗。 Margaret, a holder of a Bachelor`s degree in Marketing and English and a Master`s degree in Applied Economics from Hong Kong Baptist University, is currently employed as a licensed analyst at Phillip Securities. She specializes in conducting research focusing on the energy and utilities sectors. Prior to her current position, Margaret gained valuable work experience in a large bank, securities firm, and asset management companies. Her expertise lies in sales, research analysis, and marketing within the fields of futures and commodities derivatives.