投資概要
剔除盧布貶值等因素，三季度實際盈利同比跳升近四成 長城汽車發布2020年三季報，營業收入262.14億元，同比+23.64%；歸母淨利潤14.41億元，同比+2.93%。主要由于盧布貶值産生5.1億的匯兌損失，如果剔除該因素，實際淨利潤爲19.5億元，同比强勁增長39%。此外，三季度銷售費用因北京車展的延遲，環比增加了5.7億元，也是造成業績環比波動較大的原因之一。 銷量繼續保持强勁，皮卡、新能源車需求火爆 公司第三季度共售出28.6萬輛，同比+24%，强于行業平均。其中哈弗品牌18.3萬輛，同比+9%；WEY品牌2.36萬輛，同比+3%；歐拉品牌1.45萬輛，同比+180%；皮卡6.45萬輛，同比+93%。 旗下引領中高端皮卡乘用化風潮的炮上市後勢如破竹，月銷快速攀升到突破萬輛，帶動皮卡車型連續5個月銷量突破兩萬輛，同比大漲63%，目前在國內市場份額高達50%。 受益于新改款車型上市，歐拉黑猫9月銷量達到5141輛，在同級別車型中排名前三，且購買者更多爲個人用戶，是産品綜合實力的體現。 哈弗的主力車型H6銷量占比由2017年的47%，下降到目前的22%左右，車型銷量分布更加均衡。新一代H6推出後與舊型號拉開差距，在手訂單超過2萬輛，9月實現了1.1萬銷量，預計年底將攀升至2萬輛月銷。 經營指標繼續改善，銷售結構持續優化 由于銷售結構持續優化，公司經營指標進一步改善，毛利率同比/環比分別提升0.5/1.5個百分點至19%；剔除財務統計口徑的滯後因素干擾，三季度實際單車均價有環比的提升；經營性現金流出現淨流出，主要是因爲一季度疫情的滯後反映，預計四季度將轉正。新一代H6和哈弗大狗仍處于上市爬坡期，坦克300和歐拉好猫也即將于四季度推出，未來銷量貢獻度有望進一步提升。 2021年，公司將上市十款搭載新技術新動力的全新車型，包含燃油車、混動及純電動車型。隨著平臺化産品的不斷增多，公司新的産品周期正在開啓，未來更將進一步縮短車型開發周期和零部件通用化程度，新平臺帶來的規模效應和零部件共享程度提高也將繼續助力公司打開毛利率上行空間，盈利能力有望進一步提高。 智能化方面，公司2019年已實現L2級別的車型量産，目前45%的在售車型實現了L2級別自動駕駛，計劃在2021年推出L3級別的車型，幷在2022年達到L4級別的自動駕駛技術。我們認爲，長城汽車在汽車智能化方面的投入和積累將構築公司長久競爭實力。
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Bachelor Degree in Tongji University of Engineering; Master Degree in East China Normal University of finance. Currently covering the automobile and air sectors. She has years of experience in investment research and is good at combining analysis for the companies with industry prospects.
