長城汽車 (2333 HK) 業績好于預期,上調目標價 September 21, 2020 998

PSR Recommendation: ACCUMULATE Status: Maintained
Target Price: HKDHKD11.70

投資概要

疫情影響上半年少賺24%,二季度强勁回升 受疫情影響,長城汽車上半年實現營收359.29億元,同比下降13.17%;歸母淨潤11.46億元,同比减少24.46%;扣非歸母淨利潤8.02億元,同比减少35.34%。其中,雖然一季度因疫情産生6.5億的淨虧損,二季度公司即引領行業回暖實現扭虧,業績大幅反彈:歸母淨利潤17.96億元,同比强勁飈升141.47%;扣非歸母淨利潤15.5億元,同比大增159.58%。 銷售結構改善,盈利能力表現突出 上半年公司累計銷量39.5萬輛,同比下降20%。其中,二季度銷量同比增速轉正,升17%,較第一季度的-47%大幅好轉,也好於行業平均,是二季度强勁業績的主要原因,同時,銷售結構的優化和匯兌收益帶來財務費用大幅降低,也是重要驅動力。 從銷售結構分析,高單價、高盈利的車型哈弗H9、長城炮等的銷量表現亮眼,極大的改善了平均單車售價和單車盈利,二季度單車利潤恢復到了7367元的高位。受益于銷量增長的規模正效應,和銷量結構優化,二季度公司毛利率達到17.6%,同比增加4個百分點,環比增加8.3個百分點,帶動上半年整體毛利率同比升1.1個百分點至 14.72%。 同時,公司的費用管控得當,二季度管理費用率同比降低0.19個百分點,研發費用基本持平,銷售費用因運輸費及工資增加而有0.4個百分點的小幅上升。 2021年開啓産品大年,三大技術品牌創新令人期待 下半年,公司將上市哈弗大狗、第三代哈弗H6、坦克300、歐拉好猫等車型,更多搭載新技術新動力的全新車型(十款左右)也計劃在2021年投放,包含燃油車、混動及純電動車型,2021年將是長城汽車的産品大年。我們預計隨著新車型周期的開啓,新平臺、新車型將助力公司進一步提升競爭力。 今年7月,長城汽車發布“檸檬”、“坦克”,“咖啡智能”三大技術品牌,涵蓋汽車研發、設計、生産以及汽車生活的全産業鏈價值創新技術體系。其中,“檸檬”和“坦克”爲模塊化造車平臺,分別覆蓋2650-3005mm和2750-3750mm的軸距範圍,“坦克”更偏向越野化;“咖啡智能”是整車智能化系統,涵蓋智能座艙、智能駕駛和智能電子電氣架構。 隨著平臺化產品的不斷增多,公司未來更將進一步縮短車型開發週期和零部件通用化程度,增強產品競爭力,盈利能力有望繼續抬升。公司2019年已實現L2級別的車型量産,計劃在2021年實現L3級別的自動駕駛技術可商業化,幷在2023年達到L4級別的自動駕駛技術;在移動化出行服務生態融合方面,公司已聯合騰訊、百度、中國電信、中國聯通、中國移動等戰略夥伴共建智慧出行服務生態圈,全面啓動向全球化科技出行公司轉型的戰略新時代。

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About the author

Profile photo of Zhang Jing

Zhang Jing
Phillip Securities (HK)

Bachelor Degree in Tongji University of Engineering; Master Degree in East China Normal University of finance. Currently covering the automobile and air sectors. She has years of experience in investment research and is good at combining analysis for the companies with industry prospects.

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