投資概要
-截至今年6月尾的中期收入按年增28.8%至45.73億元人民幣(下同),經調整可比EBITDA按年增16.2%至12.49億元。由於上半年增長超過預期,故此管理層上調ANC和BNC業務收入增長預測。ANC(成人營養及護理用品)全年收入增長由年初預期的20%提高到逾30%,EBITDA預測則維持在30%左右。BNC(嬰幼兒營養及護理用品)中的奶粉增長由年初預期的15至20%,提高到略高於20%,益生菌也由20至30%的增長預期,提高到約30%,低於上半年實際增長的64%,主要由於首季為去年底缺貨進行了一次性的捕獲,以及基數因素。BNC的EBITDA則維持預期在20%左右。
-中美貿易戰近期持續困擾市場,但管理層表示,從近期公司數據來看還是符合預期的,暫未看到貿易戰對於中國消費市場帶來的衝擊。我們認為,上半年新註冊配方奶粉產品分銷商一次性補貨因素,及益生菌延期發貨因素對於收入增長帶動的因素在下半年將不會發生,加上考慮到基數較大,預計BNC業務收入增長將較上半年有所放緩。而ANC業務增長趨勢則有望延續,主要考慮到公司將在下半年推出多款新品。管理層透露,下半年會推出8至9款新SKU,包括屬於ANC業務的水光片(口服玻尿酸)及膠原蛋白口服啫喱,目前在試售階段,市場反應良好,計劃將在即將來臨的雙十一重點推出。
-中國年尾或將重啟的跨境電商正面清單政策,若果重啟將意味ANC業務中的Swisse非維生素SKU,將無法透過跨境電商報稅模式銷售。與此同時,《電子商務法》將於明年1月1日起施行,規定從事微商、代購等工作,必須依法辦理工商登記取得營業執照及履行納稅義務,個人代購及微店等經營均將受到監管。我們對於年尾能否重啟正面清單存在質疑,因該政策補充細節仍待明確,而事實上,市場目前正醞釀負面清單的聲音。對於《電子商務法》,由於中國代購市場範圍太廣,可以小至個人微信朋友圈,但會較難完全受到監管,而H&H本身已有不少大型電商合作商,包括天貓,考拉,京東及唯品會,線下也有實體門店,故中長期來看,我們相信影響屬於有限。
-公司並有意進一步拓展ANC線下業務,計劃將門店由目前的7000多家增加至年尾的逾9000家,新增門店50%將會是母嬰店,因與BNC業務有協同效應,另外還會有美妝店等。由於線上業務存在政策的不確定性,而線下隨著三四線城市滲透率的提升,預計後者佔比未來會有所提升。
-我們預計,上半年ANC業務的提價,有助於全年毛利率按年有所擴張,而經營利潤率則將有所下跌,主要考慮到管理層將今年定位為投資年,料下半年將繼續在宣傳及營銷活動方面加大開支,包括在奶粉新配方業務上,繼續進行線上及線下市場的投資。考慮到公司有意繼續改善由收購Swiss導致的高負債狀況,我們預期財務費用將會逐年下跌,令純利空間得以改善。我們給予買入評級,預測市盈率23.9倍,目標價49.55元。(現價截至2018年10月25日)
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Graduated from Chinese University of Hong Kong, majoring in Economics for Bachelor Degree, and Journalism for Master Degree. Worked in financial news industry for more than four years.
Currently cover retailing, property sectors and IPOs. Good at analysis for the companies with economic policies and industry prospects.