Report type: Weekly Strategy
”Estimating the upper limit of the current market range for the Nikkei Average”
As mentioned in the 25th January issue of this weekly report, “Is the official inauguration of the new president a turning point between ‘expectation’ and ‘reality’?”, it seems that the sentiment surrounding the stock market has changed from around the 20th of this month. In fact, on 21/1, the US Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a record high of 31,272 points since last year. On 14/1, the Nikkei Average hit a record high of 28,979 points since last year, but struggled around the 28,600 points level after that, and as seen in its downward acceleration on 29/1 at the end of the month, people are generally wary of the inauguration day.
When forecasting or estimating the immediate high of the Nikkei Average from the price chart perspective, it is important to first estimate the mid-price of the market range. By assuming that the upper and lower limits of the market range are in the same price range from the mid-price, once the past mid-price and the lower limit of the market range are determined, the upper limit of the current market range can theoretically be determined. In addition, the mid-price is likely to correspond to the price within the price range between downside support and upside resistance that many market participants used to be strongly aware of. If we were to estimate the market range in the time frame after November 2017, it is clear that the lower limit is the low of 16,358 points in March last year, and the candidates for the mid-price are 22,500 points or 23,000 points. For calculation purposes, the upper limit of the market range would be 28,648 points assuming a mid-price of 22,500 points, and 29,648 points assuming a mid-price of 23,000 points. One of the reasons why the Nikkei Average has been struggling around the 28,600 points level in January is that the market is aware of the past mid-price of the market range of 22,500 points.
In addition, taking into account the impact of the US presidential election, we can use the low of 22,948 points on 31/10 last year as the lower limit to estimate the current market range. In such a case, it is possible to estimate that the mid-price would be around 26,000 points, if we consider the decline to 20/11 after the rise to the high of 26,057 points on 17/11 as a turning point. In that case, calculation shows that the upper limit of the market range is near 29,000 points, which is close to the high of 28,979 points on the 14th of this month.
Stock market sayings and anomalies, such as “hitting the ceiling beginning of spring and hitting the bottom during equinoctial week” and “January effect”, are widely known. We should consider the possibility that such sayings and anomalies may apply to some extent this year, as happened in 2018 and 2020. This year’s Chinese New Year (Spring Festival) in China is supposed to be a seven-day holiday from 11-17/2. As a result of the Chinese government’s calls for people to refrain from returning home, the number of travelers may be lower than usual. However, it is expected that people will continue to travel back home from the 28th of this month until early March. Even if we see an adjustment phase in Japanese stocks, there is a possibility that the adjustment will be complete around the end of the Spring Festival and the market will turn to buying.
In the 1/2 issue, we will be covering DIC (4631), Nissha (7915), Anicom Holdings (8715), and Innotech (9880).
・A chemical manufacturer founded in 1908 for the manufacture and sale of printing inks. Formerly known as Dainippon Ink & Chemicals. Top global market share in printing inks, organic pigments and PPS compounds. Expanding into resins and electronic materials businesses.
・For 9M (Jan-Sep) results of FY2020/12 announced on 13/11, net sales decreased by 10.8% to 514.308 billion yen compared to the same period the previous year, and operating income decreased by 13.2% to 25.577 billion yen. Although declining in the July-September period, sales increased 5.2% QoQ as the spread of infection had subsided over a wide area, and shipments of inks for publishing and materials for automobiles were on a recovery trend.
・For its full year plan, net sales is expected to decrease by 8.9% to 700.0 billion yen compared to the previous year, and operating income to decrease by 15.3% to 35.0 billion yen. Expected to increase sales by 8.9% and operating income by 21.7% QoQ in the October-December period. Announced on 25/1 the development of a thermoplastic material for 3D printers with antiviral and antibacterial functions. The 3D printer materials market has grown significantly due to factors such as the progress of technological innovation in molding methods, the diversification and sophistication of materials, and the expansion of applications from prototypes to finished products. Demand for this market is also increasing due to the risk of supply chain disruptions.
・Founded in Kyoto in 1929 and established in 1946. Mainly engaged in the production and sales of industrial materials, devices, products and services related to medical technology, and information and communication. The film touch sensor of the Devices business is the mainstay of earnings.
・For 9M (Jan-Sep) results of FY2020/12 announced on 11/11, net sales increased by 1.9% to 128.785 billion yen compared to the same period the previous year, and operating income increased 7.5 times to 3.258 billion yen. Higher demand for consumer electronics products in the Devices segment and mobility products in the Industrial Materials segment had contributed to higher sales, while cost structure improvements had led to higher profits.
・Company has revised its full-year plan upwards on 11/11. Net sales is expected to increase by 2.3% to 178.0 billion yen compared to the previous year (original plan 166.0 billion yen), and operating income to return to profitability from minus 16.247 billion yen in the previous year to 5.5 billion yen (original plan 1.5 billion yen). Under the mid-term management plan focusing on growth through business portfolio reorganization, demand is expected to increase for consumer electronics and mobility products, as well as for other key markets such as medical devices and sustainable packaging materials