Advanced Micro Devices Inc. – Still not out of the woods November 3, 2023 292

PSR Recommendation: NEUTRAL Status: Downgraded
Target Price: 110.00
  • 3Q23 revenue was within expectations. 9M23 revenue at 72% of our FY23e forecasts. PATMI is at 17% on higher R&D expenses. 3Q23 PATMI increased 10x QoQ.
  • PC recovery of 42% YoY is driving revenue, with early indicators of a market recovery. DC demand is stable on normalising inventory levels, and high demand for MI300 chips. Gaming and Embedded segments a drag on overall growth due to cyclical headwinds.
  • Due to higher R&D and tax expenses, we cut our FY23e/FY24e EBITDA by 11%/14%, and also cut our FY23e PATMI by ~US$1bn. Given recent share price movements, and a prolonged drag by Gaming and Embedded segments on overall growth, we downgrade to a NEUTRAL rating from ACCUMULATE with a reduced target price of US$110.00 (prev. US$121.00). Our WACC/growth rate assumptions of 7.4%/3.5% remain unchanged.

 

 

 

The Positives

+ PC recovery driving revenue growth. PC revenue growth saw a sharp reversal after 4 quarters of ~50% YoY contraction. Its 42% YoY (46% QoQ) increase was the main driver for overall revenue growth, and was attributed to strong demand for AMD’s Ryzen 7000 series processors as inventory levels normalised. AMD guided to a sequential double-digit increase in PC revenue for 4Q23e. We believe the stronger demand into 4Q23e is a huge positive, and is an early indication of a cylical recovery in the PC market.

+ Data centre revenue stable on normalizing customer inventory levels. DC revenues held steady YoY, but increased 21% QoQ as AMD saw record quarterly server processor revenue of its 3rd & 4th Gen EPYC CPUs (>50% QoQ) from strong Cloud and Enterprise demand. The key highlight was significant customer traction in AMD’s new MI300 chips (Data Centre GPUs), with the company expecting ~US$400mn in revenue for 4Q23e and >US$2bn for FY24e as it expects to increase market share in the data centre GPU market (vs NVDA).

 

The Negatives

– Weakness in Gaming and Embedded. AMD’s Gaming (GPU) segment was down -5% YoY on weaker semi-custom revenue, with AMD expecting Gaming to decline double-digit QoQ due to continued weakness in the console cycle. It’s Embedded segment was also down -15% YoY due to softening 5G rollouts and industrial demand, and is also expected to decline double-digit QoQ and remain weak into 1H24e as customers continue to work through excess inventory. We expect both segments to be a drag on FY24e revenue growth.

– Higher R&D expenses and tax to impact 4Q23e profitabilty. R&D expense growth for 9M23 was 20% YoY, significantly higher than our estimates of ~10% growth due to higher AI-related investments. In addition, AMD expects to incur a US$550mn tax expense in 4Q23e which was previously deferred due to California disaster relief efforts. We increase our FY23e R&D forecast by ~US$500mn, and increase our tax expense by ~US$600mn, resulting in a -10% cut in FY23e EBITDA, and PATMI lowered by ~US$1bn.

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Jonathan Woo
Research Analyst
PSR

Jonathan covers the US technology sector focusing on internet companies. Formerly a national and professional athlete, he graduated from the University of Oregon with a Bachelor’s Degree in Social Sciences.

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